Morris Miccelli

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What just happened?

The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025.

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[Cathie Wood @CathieDWood]

The jobs report was a barnburner. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 versus expectations for 88,000, while prior months were revised higher by 93,000. Wage growth came in at roughly 0.3%.

Yet the market sold off.

In our view, the market is misreading the signal. It is assuming that stronger than expected employment and growth will cause a an acceleration in inflation. History would suggest otherwise. 

Productivity growth is running near 3%, while unit labor costs are hovering around 0.5%. Those are not the hallmarks of an inflationary boom. They are the hallmarks of healthy, productivity-driven growth that will lower inflation.

Meanwhile, the yield curve continues to flatten despite a roughly 55% increase in oil prices year-over-year based on a three month moving average. In past cycles, an energy shock of this magnitude steepened the yield curve when the Federal Reserve was accommodating it. Instead, the bond market appears to be discounting something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of technological innovation, particularly artificial intelligence, which is beginning to increase productivity across broad swaths of the economy.

If tensions with Iran ease and oil prices retreat, we believe inflation could move into negative territory before year-end.

In our view, the Fed made a historic policy error when it raised rates aggressively into what was largely a supply-driven inflation shock in 2022. We do not believe the next generation of monetary policymakers will be eager to repeat that mistake.

Notably, gold peaked on the day Kevin Warsh was appointed. The inflation trade may already be behind us.

If our research is correct, the next phase of this cycle could be characterized by accelerating growth, declining inflation, falling interest rates, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. That combination would create a remarkably supportive backdrop for innovation-led equities and the technologies driving the next productivity boom.

I discuss this framework in greater detail in this month’s episode of In The Know.

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@WayneHines24470 That’d throw a cat amongst the pigeons!

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@setc24242 @WayneHines24470 @CrowStu Wrong! Read the word “or” in both screenshots you’ve posted.

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@setc24242 @CrowStu Absolutely not! They can run it with either Hydrochloric Acid OR Sulphuric Acid…..and the plan has always been Hydrochloric Acid. They do not need any Sulphuric Acid in their flowsheet. It can’t be made any clearer! You have got it wrong!

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@setc24242 @CrowStu Just need lots of water!

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@setc24242 @CrowStu They can choose to use Sulphuric Acid if they with to produce a Lithium Sulphate intermediate product….that’s why the screenshot you posted says “or”. Lithium Chloride is the chosen intermediate product at Kachi NOT Lithium Sulphate.
Nice try though.

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@setc24242 @WayneHines24470 @CrowStu You are way off track @setc24242.

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@setc24242 @CrowStu Lilac use Hydrochloric Acid in their flowsheet - hence the Lithium Chloride as their initial output….which then gets converted to Lithium Carbonate in the Carbonation plant.
Sulphuric Acid is the issue. Even the largest Uranium miners in the world are having issues sourcing it!

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@AnthonyCer89473 @dougscott1300 It was at 6c Anthony, not 50c.

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@LithiumJW @sqeinvest @lake_resources They must have forgotten about the ATM!
There is enough cash to get us through to the EIA and possibly even the alternative power announcements. I think they’ll be will tap the ATM for a top up after that if needed.
Same two pot stirrers always at work on this stock!

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@LithiumJW @lake_resources There are also other links…..Sumitomo Corporation invested strategically in Lilac Solutions via its corporate venture arm, Presidio Ventures, during Lilac's previous funding rounds. Similarly, Mitsubishi Corporation is also a prominent strategic investor in Lilac Solutions.

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

Big gains are there to be made in development miners - particularly those that have de-risked to the point of having an imminent EIA Approval on the cards and be shovel ready in the short term!
$LKE $LLKKF is one to consider!
- Large resource
- DLE that works
- Good jurisdiction

[Christopher Aaron @iGlobalGold]

REMINDER -- Development miners are the cheapest they have EVER been compared to large miners.
This ratio cannot go to zero.
This ratio is in a giant 2-decade bottoming pattern.
Bookmark this -- the gains you will make in development miners when this reverts will be silly.

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

An excellent video on Lithium, Argentina, DLE, etc. and the opportunity at hand.
$LKE $LLKKF

https://t.co/NZWUlfrv6c

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@AsiaN6809 More of the same by the look of it!
Continuing to monitor but I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Chris Meder @EVCurveFuturist]

Full respect to Benchmark Minerals and the work they do, but I'm not convinced by the 2027 surplus narrative.

I think the market is still underestimating the demand side. China's NEV penetration is already above 60%, battery pack sizes keep rising, and now the Iran oil crisis is adding another layer of wallet pain to the equation. Throughout history, few catalysts have accelerated behavioural change faster than higher energy costs.

What feels different today is the convergence. Demand isn't coming from one direction anymore. It's coming from EVs, BESS, behind-the-meter storage, solar, wind, trucks, trains, shipping, boats, eVTOLs, robotics and AI infrastructure all at once.

The supply response may well arrive. The question is whether it can outrun demand. Personally, I think the industry is still underestimating just how many batteries the world is about to need.

[Morris Miccelli @MMiccelli]

@usuallyYJLee Those that believe the switch to oversupply will happen again, just like the last cycle, have zero understanding of just how much the demand side has changed since then…or how much it is set up to change at an even faster rate in the future! Their heads are firmly in the sand!