EvanBTC.mt

且看，且听，且慢！
活跃链上，学习宏观
记录我杂乱无章的交易笔记

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@0xldb 因为我们华人社区的车头，他们建设好了，有人喷；不好了，也有人喷。喷得没有人敢建设了

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@ohyishi 一键三连，谢谢yishi哥

[Yishi @ohyishi]

for everyone who’s feeling worried, scared, or anxious because of the coldcard incident, or who has suffered a loss, leave a comment under this post.

i’ll randomly select 100 people to receive the latest secure onekey hardware wallet.

it’s the least i can do.

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

这轮存储的下跌，本质上就是因为有太多获利盘要出清，以及太多杠杆要清出，叠加韩国政府也在主动压盘清出泡沫（提高融资融券的保证金以及加息），这个时候蹦出来一件事情，那么就是国产 Kimi k3公布的大模型版本目前要比国外的便宜，而且用的大部分都是国产，性能比目前 claude 和 OpenAI 的都差不了多少，导致海外很多开始质疑，AI 的高支出、高性能 CPU 和存储是否还能够维持？海外 capex 能否继续，因为国内能够用低端的设备做出跟你一样的效果。加速了本就应该要出清盈利盘和杠杆的趋势

可能还有一点宏观外部因素影响（美伊），这几件事情叠在一起，让整个 AI 板块、存储板块普跌 30~50 个点

我觉得核心基本面还是没有变化，有点类似去年初 deepseek 问世导致英伟达暴力出清获利盘和杠杆一样，大跌 30-40%。

但是回到现在市场的预期来看，现在大概率是近一两年的顶部区间，因为不管是存储板块还是 AI 板块，大家都把预期拉到了 27 年之后，并且马上就是各大巨头财报期，叠加capex能否继续，一点点财报预期不达标估计又是暴跌。

底部我个人认为是散户投降，不仅仅是杠杆出清。我查了韩国的官方融资融券的一些数据，发现现在融资融券以及借贷还是处于历史高位仅仅回调了 11%，简单来说，就是旧杠杆在被出清，但是被新的杠杆以更大的资金、更大的杠杆接回来了。也就是说，散户还没投降。不仅没投降，他们反而还认为这是一个机会，觉得现在的筹码很便宜，疯狂地加大杠杆借贷去接货冲进去。

接下来操作就是：
小跌小买，大跌大买，做反弹。
小涨小卖，大涨大卖，做下跌趋势继续出清杠杆直到杠杆彻底降下来

因此我可以先用计划仓位的 20%—30% 做超跌反弹头仓，在周一开盘后或者财报前后考虑重仓加仓

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@Cato_KT 我对于 BTC 未来一年到半年主线叙事是偏悲观的，BTC 没有其他新主线预期能够拉起来市场，该讲的故事基本讲完了（消化了），接下来需要新的预期刺激

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

逐帧逐字学习几位老师的推文 @Boywus @Metabape @limxn6

[硅基鸟 | Ray @limxn6]

BN的这次SPCX rebase是随性之举还是早有规划？1000bp 套利点又究竟存在于何处？

答案早就藏在文档当中了，在5.29时bn发布了一则解释IPO标的rebase规则的文档，彼时QNT刚刚上线bn，文档中提及，如果预估总股数与实际总股数偏差达到3%就会触发rebase机制。一开始这个机制bn原意可能是留给QNT的，但QNT上线时预估总股数与实际总股数相差只有2.8%，因此并没有触发rebase规则。

而6月3号SPACX的 S-1A文件显示，SPCX实际股数在增发后来到了13.08B股，相较BN上最初预估的11.87B股多了10%。当时6月3号的S-1A文件一出，灵敏感知市场动向的Hyperliquid交易员直接一笔卖单，把Hyperliquid上的SPCX价格打了15块下来，说明HL上的主流交易者早就已经预设了Hyperliquid上SPCX跟随的是实际A类股的价格。这其实也是非常重要的链上IPO标的套利时间节点，即S-1A文件发布时间点。

看到S-1A的股本数变化，BN并没有第一时间发布rebase公告，而是首先在6.4号补充了解释rebase规则的文档的中文版本，这其实是bn向市场释放的一个重要信号，bn很明确知道rebase规则的存在且正在内部筹备和讨论rebase的方案和时间点。但是市场仍完全不buy in，对bn可能进行rebase的概率没有丝毫定价，甚至在很长一段时间内HL上SPCX的价格要高于BN上SPCX价格20bp。

我和小伙伴们都比较犹豫，因为感觉市场定价完全失灵，是不是我们算错了什么，为了确保万无一失，我们先后向OKX,BN和TradeXYZ的support团队进行询问，并且都提交了ticket，确保所得回复都是来自内部真实团队反馈而非客服敷衍了事。同时对可能出现的套利路径进行密切分析排查，并对相关公告关键词添加了监控。最终决定在不亏损的前提下建立一定对冲仓位。

6月9号北京时间晚上22：45，BN rebase公告发布，市场才在接下来正式进入逐步定价环节，从1000bp逐步开始收敛。详见 https://t.co/hwwzpI9ucK
https://t.co/KAD3jlB0Up

郑重感谢@Metabape @Boywus 在本次套利策略研究、文档监控、信息传播、渠道求证等等环节的鼎力支持。

最初rebase规则文档链接：
https://t.co/LKADOzMqAK

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

Some of my perspective on where the @ethereumfndn is going.

First of all, this is only my own view. The board is not just me, and I have no extra special powers on the board that the other board members do not. @aerugoettinea is the one executing much of this transition. My input has been largely on technical questions. The board is in the process of expanding, and my own power within the org will continue to decrease, which is honestly what I want.

The 2025 era brought many important improvements to EF and its ability to execute. Many issues were resolved, and EF continues to benefit from its improved efficiency and greater focus on concrete goals to this day. And so with those problems resolved, early this year, the largest remaining hole that I perceived was something different nagging at me: I would regularly spot people saying things like "vitalik says these beautiful things about ethereum needing to be decentralized, and have privacy, and be a sanctuary technology, but why do the EF's actions not reflect that?"

Now, you may have been hearing something different. You may not have been sensing a feeling of crisis at all, and maybe were hearing people saying that finally we were taking execution and BD seriously and the main task for us is to keep going that way and be even better and faster. Then probably there is genuine difference between you and me, in what kinds of criticism I take most seriously, and what kinds of critics through their criticism are most able to make me feel pain.

As an analogy, let's briefly switch over to a different domain.

One belief you can have about Google is that it is a success story, and has brought a lot of good to humanity in organizing the world's information. Another belief you can have about Google is that they had a beautiful idealistic beginning, but at some point the corruption of mainstream corporate attitudes seeped in, and they slowly bit by bit completely abandoned the "don't be evil" slogan.

My belief on Google specifically is probably somewhere between the two. BUT, if you had taken me back in time to ~2008, and offered me a button to press to make Google one or two standard deviations more "dogmatic", eg. give Richard Stallman permanent veto power over some key policies, I would immediately press it.

Why? Because a choice for one company is not a choice for the world, or even one country. Google existed and exists in the context of a technology industry generally drifting away from early idealistic don't-be-evil roots and toward greed for financial gain, totalizing visions of accelerated superintelligence, infiltration by sociopaths, and craven capitulation to (or worse, active participation in) government pressure for ideological control, surveillance and war. And so *one company* doing something different, positioning itself to be what George Bernard Shaw calls the Unreasonable Man, resisting the trend of the times, would have been better for freedom, balance of power and stability of society as a whole, than *all* large companies bending to dominant trends. This is a part of my version of pluralism.

This line of thinking is not just mine, but I also is not too far off from what Aya and others had in mind with the Mandate.

Now how does this all get to the role of the EF?

EF is not a "center of Ethereum", rather EF is "one node, with a defined purpose, alongside other nodes". We've always said that the EF should be the latter, but many in the Ethereum ecosystem (and even within the EF) wanted us to be the former. Now, we are taking action to ensure that we will be the latter.

This is particularly important because EF is a limited organization, with limited resources and limited organizational capacity. The EF has only ~0.16% of all ETH (less than many other individual ETH holders), whereas among other blockchains it's common for "the central foundation" to have 10-50%. Fiscally, the EF was originally designed to fulfill a limited work scope defined in the token sale docs and other pre-launch materials (building the chain software; getting through Frontier, Homestead, Metropolis, Serenity), which was fully completed in 2022; it was not designed to be an eternal steward.

And so today, the EF is choosing to use its remaining resources to pursue longevity over breadth (yes, this means we sell less ETH). The EF focuses *specifically* on those activities critical to the success of ethereum as a censorship/capture-resistant, open, private and secure system, that would not happen otherwise. This means making hard choices, and in some cases even activities that we highly approve of and people that we highly respect becoming outside of the EF. People of great technical talent, public respect and even alignment with the mission and CROPS being outside of the EF is in fact necessary if we want important tasks to be able to attract outside capital. This also means the EF taking opinionated stands culturally.

This is all intended in cooperation with all other parts of ethereum. We recognize that many other parts of the ethereum world highly respect CROPS and related values. But highly respecting is not the same as choosing to specialize and totally dedicate to a domain (Compare in a different domain: I think reducing animal cruelty is important, and I like vegan food, but am not full unconditional vegan myself)

EF is still in a transition period, and we expect its new long-term form to stabilize over the next few months. What are the guiding principles of this new form? Again, I am only one person, but I can give my answer from a technical perspective (there are also critical non-technical aspects).

At the core, *Ethereum must be impressive*. We are living in an age of highly intelligent AI and all kinds of other technological acceleration. "Status quo EVM, with a hard fork or two a year to optimize for short-term needs of users" is not interesting.

To some, "impressive" means: 250ms latency and 1M TPS. I think Ethereum trying to go that route is a mistake. Being as fast and as scalable as possible, and only a small epsilon more decentralized than the others, is a route to mediocrity, and if we try it we will lose.

I think Ethereum should scale. But I think Ethereum should strive the hardest to be deeply impressive in a different dimension: the CROPS dimension. This means things like:

* Provably bug-free Ethereum. This is a goal that all cybersecurity researchers would have thought is absurd and impossible, up until roughly 6 months ago. Now, it's on the cusp of being possible, thanks to AI-assisted formal verification. So we should be frontrunners in doing this.

* Available chain consensus. Ethereum is, and with lean consensus will cotninue to be, the ONLY chain that has both (i) traditional-BFT style properties that it's safe under asynchrony up to a high level of fault tolerance, and (ii) the bitcoin PoW-style property that under synchrony it's safe up to 49% attackers. As far as I can tell, literally no other chain has this or is planning for it; bitcoin goes for (ii) only and most other chains go for (i) only. Some will remember I fought hard for this, Unreasonably insisting that it is not OK for ethereum to rely on social consensus and hard forks to rescue ethereum from 34% of nodes going offline. It's OK for chains like hyperledger, bnb, solana, tempo, etc. It's not OK for bitcoin or ethereum or eg. zcash.

* Intermediary minimization. The fact that smart contract wallets, protocols like railgun, etc have to send transactions through intermediaries to get included onchain is honestly embarrassing, and it's a constant point of fragility. Hence the work on FOCIL and EIP-8141 (and 7701 and years of work before) to make transaction sending intermediary-minimized with public mempool and strong inclusion properties, in a truly general-purpose way, that covers not just eg. secp256r1, but also privacy protocols and much more. Kohaku is pushing intermediary minimization at the user layer, pulling Ethereum away from the dystopian status quo world where our wallets don't even verify the chain, send our private data out to a dozen third-party servers, and toward a brighter CROPS future.

Some of these goals are Unreasonable - maybe Ethereum would be "fine" getting only 50% of the way - what if we depend on intermediaries, but make it easy to switch? But going 50% of the way would not make Ethereum Deeply Impressive in the CROPS way. So we push for 100%.

Fortunately all these goals are compatible with high TPS, this is a major focus of research (esp. on scaling the state). Well-designed L2s can also help, especially L2s optimized for specific applications (eg. high-volume trading, privacy...). These goals are even compatible with significantly lower slot times, thanks to Raul's work on erasure-coded P2P, and many other optimizations.

The most high-value "product" of the ethereum blockchain, financially speaking, is ETH the asset. Ethereum secures $250 billion of ETH. The types of properties of Ethereum that I mentioned above are very good for ETH the asset. Nearly 90% of my net worth is in ETH, and most of the remainder is ~$40m of onchain fiat of which every dollar has already been allocated for some open-source biotech or software or hardware initiative. That said, there are aspects of supporting ETH the asset - *necessary* aspects even - that are outside the scope of the EF. This is where we need other heroes (some of whom hold more ETH than the EF does) to step in and help. EF has been recently thinking more about how it will relate to other such organizations, and give them needed initial support.

EF will be a smaller ship than in previous years, a more opinionated one - in some cases more opinionated in ways that might be difficult to comprehend - but a longer-lasting one, and one suited to making sure that ethereum brings something meaningful to the world. We are grateful to all those inside and outside the EF who are helping to make this happen.

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

bitcoin:native 最后的逃命机会。🍑🐔

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@cryptoxiao 那可太棒了

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@Wangduanniao 短鸟哥，你现在OKB是在水上还是水下？我被套了大半年了，太痛苦了

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@BTC_Alert_ 人还在吗？

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@maitian99 用了claude后，其他所有的模型都用不下去了，食之无味，如同嚼蜡。

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

没那么快就结束，也没那么狠的决心要打长期，就是川普政治博弈的筹码，什么时候博弈目标达到了就快结束了

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

伊朗为什么现在发声？我感觉不是投降，是典型的“以打促谈”。

他们被打了一个多月，经济快扛不住了，胡塞武装也快被打废，霍尔木兹海峡封锁虽然是核武器（这是一把达摩克利斯之剑+双刃剑，只能震慑，不能真的用，一用大家就都知道威力了并且会在未来不断的拉扯中降低预期，最后会把预期消磨光，那么他自己也就失去了最大的底牌），也会把自己石油出口卡死，属于两败俱伤。

“希望得到保障”这几个字翻译过来就是：我们要体面停火，你们得给钱、给安全承诺、给制裁松绑。

说白了，他们在要价，不是求饶。

特朗普的真实处境，他现在最怕的就是战争继续把油价往上顶。 霍尔木兹一旦真封死，原油再冲120+，美国汽油价格继续涨，通胀反弹，美联储降息遥遥无期，中期选举选票直接少一大块。

所以他一边放狠话（派地面部队、摧毁能源设施），一边疯狂拖延，把最后期限从3月底推到4月6日，还在Truth Social上说“谈判进展非常好”。

特朗普现在是既要强硬形象，又要低油价保选票，两头都要，难度拉满。

那么未来大概率怎么走？

我判断最可能（60%概率）：秘密谈判 + 逐步降温。 双方其实都有强烈动机谈成——伊朗要喘口气，特朗普要选票。 大概率通过阿曼、卡塔尔这些中间人私下接触，1-3个月内搞出一个临时停火框架（不一定公开宣布，但实际军事行动会大幅减少）。

次可能（25%）：谈崩，以色列搅局或者伊朗要价太高，4-6月冲突再起，油价二次冲高。

小概率（15%）：特朗普真派地面部队——这个基本可以排除，他现在最不想打的是长期消耗战。

我的交易建议：
现在可以做多博弈这个消息带来的短期战争确定性，不过只能小仓位或者头仓博弈。

重点还是继续观望到4月2日关税落地，这是最近最大的催化剂。

如果关税如果低于预期 + 伊朗谈判有进一步积极消息，就是重点做多的窗口。

祝各位好运！

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

伊朗为什么现在发声？我感觉不是投降，是典型的“以打促谈”。

他们被打了一个多月，经济快扛不住了，胡塞武装也快被打废，霍尔木兹海峡封锁虽然是核武器（这是一把达摩克利斯之剑+双刃剑，只能震慑，不能真的用，一用大家就都知道威力了并且会在未来不断的拉扯中降低预期，最后会把预期消磨光，那么他自己也就失去了最大的底牌），也会把自己石油出口卡死，属于两败俱伤。

“希望得到保障”这几个字翻译过来就是：我们要体面停火，你们得给钱、给安全承诺、给制裁松绑。

说白了，他们在要价，不是求饶。

特朗普的真实处境，他现在最怕的就是战争继续把油价往上顶。 霍尔木兹一旦真封死，原油再冲120+，美国汽油价格继续涨，通胀反弹，美联储降息遥遥无期，中期选举选票直接少一大块。

所以他一边放狠话（派地面部队、摧毁能源设施），一边疯狂拖延，把最后期限从3月底推到4月6日，还在Truth Social上说“谈判进展非常好”。

特朗普现在是既要强硬形象，又要低油价保选票，两头都要，难度拉满。

那么未来大概率怎么走？

我判断最可能（60%概率）：秘密谈判 + 逐步降温。 双方其实都有强烈动机谈成——伊朗要喘口气，特朗普要选票。 大概率通过阿曼、卡塔尔这些中间人私下接触，1-3个月内搞出一个临时停火框架（不一定公开宣布，但实际军事行动会大幅减少）。

次可能（25%）：谈崩，以色列搅局或者伊朗要价太高，4-6月冲突再起，油价二次冲高。

小概率（15%）：特朗普真派地面部队——这个基本可以排除，他现在最不想打的是长期消耗战。

我的交易建议：
现在可以做多博弈这个消息带来的短期战争确定性，不过只能小仓位或者头仓博弈。

重点还是继续观望到4月2日关税落地，这是最近最大的催化剂。

如果关税如果低于预期 + 伊朗谈判有进一步积极消息，就是重点做多的窗口。

祝各位好运！

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@laogouluoji 好的

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@laogouluoji 哥，好用吗？

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@kaylyn_0x @0xNought 应用，应用，只有应用才能跑出来！

[EvanBTC.mt @Evan_Bitcoin]

@CryptoPainter 画师目前有好的中转站推荐吗？谢谢🙏，现在国内一些垃圾中转站太难用了。。