VERY interesting…
Grayndler has been held by Albo since 1996.
A month ago, Hannah Ferguson announced she’s contesting the seat.
Yesterday, she posts this pic.
At this rate, Ferguson’s campaign will easily surpass Maxine McKew’s campaign against Howard in 2007 - possibly becoming the largest single-seat campaign in history.
(It has a larger seed group to compound, and is starting far earlier.)
Still far too out to gauge political sentiment for what (at this stage, given the seat margin) is likely a May 2028 election. (Things are moving fast though. 9 months ago One Nation was a twinkle in a mining baron’s eye.)
Margins are in the ballpark of Fowler, Warringah, Wentworth, Denison before each flipped to independents.
The primary vote shift required would be lower than Fowler 2022. Wilkie shows how a seat like this could be won from 3rd place too.
Will be very interesting…
@StealthRalf@spinningjoe But there's a road right there that you can legally use to ride faster.
Not everyone is a fat sack of shit like some internet individuals.
@tefbetweetin@SKINNY314 I understand the concept, don't understand why you have it on a spending account linked to a debit card.
Is American banking that primitive?
@Dan83795675@ettingermentum In prediction betting like kalshi, if the total wager is low then yes, someone can easily just dump a few grand in and spike the odds, it kinda is open to manipulation.
@blufferfish089@nikicaga When you see the data it makes sense, for example last census more people did what you see in the screenshot then put down buddist