ExpectedChelsea

Thinking out loud about football, data and tactics. DM for enquiries.

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[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

I'll be pinning this thread and include my best works in it so that it will be easy for newcomers to read. Hopefully I'll be able to update this thread on a regular basis. :-)

As always, RTs will be genuinely appreciated.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

@MobyChe Agreed, balance is the main thing. The Cobham boys are stamped, so no need to worry about them. If we are to continue our player flipping model, we need to ensure (we can't really - not in our control) that every Andrey is balanced by a Havertz.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

I could be way off the mark, but it's concerning how poorly ex-Chelsea players are performing.

From a purely tribalistic lens, it's good to sell lemons to rivals, but as a club reliant on selling players, we need a reputation as a place where you can buy reliable players from.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

Again, all of this is just a thought experiment really. We've "fleeced" quite a few rivals for our duds, but how long can the process continue? Can it go on forever?

How do we stay prepared for a reality where clubs are skeptical buying from us?

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

This is an interesting POV. I know for a fact that Brighton are very particular about the clubs they're selling to.

Only if players perform well at their new clubs can BHA continue demanding big fees, so they take efforts to ensure they're sending players to the right spots.

[Kwaku D. Hosula @m_mburner]

Are the clubs selling duds to Chelsea worried about this?

[Nova Game | Football Management @novagame_io]

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[Nova Game | Football Management @novagame_io]

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[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

Say you're United's DoF. Your club has bought two players from Chelsea recently, and both have flopped. Wouldn't that make you hesitate going back?

We can command high fees for our players because of trust from buying clubs. It's important we keep that up. How? I don't know.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

@chelsea_emi Do you really think Bournemouth are going to get £100m+ for a guy with 18 months left on his contract?

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

Getting Scott in January would be a no-brainer move. It was remarkable to see the difference Henderson - old, nothing special but capable of doing the basics correctly - made next to Caicedo.

I thought Reece and Lavia would suffice, but I had overestimated them.

[Nizaar Kinsella @NizaarKinsella]

🚨Exclusive: Bournemouth are open to offers for Alex Scott in January under certain conditions. Decision to end not for sale stance came after talks with Scott's representatives. Liverpool and Chelsea are among the potential suitors.
https://t.co/OlmC94MRMd

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

At the wages he's on, he's not bringing the value he should be. Can't play RB/WB anymore and is a run-of-the-mill DM - meaning his only viable role as a "top" player is a wide CB in a back 3.

Would I pay £250k/week for that? I'm frankly inclined towards no.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

What I'm going to say is going to piss people off, but we may need to start having difficult conversations about Reece soon.

I sympathize with his injuries, but he's no longer at his past levels even when fit. I'm not saying we need to sell him, but maybe we start thinking.

[CFCDaily @CFCDaily]

🚨Thomas Tuchel confirms Reece James is injured.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

Ask Joao Neves or Vitinha to play Brentford - CL KOs - Newcastle (or games of that difficulty) in 7 days and then we can judge if they're among the best in the world.

Until then, my firm belief is they win the CL because they're fresher, not because they're better.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

Just thinking out loud, I wonder if this version of the PL is arguably the most competitive league in football history. The depth of teams is just ridiculous.

Brentford A (today's fixture) is tough enough to be a CL QF, and it's just another PL match-day.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

And this is why I laugh whenever I see people suggest PSG's players as amongst the best in the world. It's not an opinion I can respect.

They can win whatever "Trebles" they want, but they're just not challenged. PL teams arrive to the CL KOs at 50% energy, PSG comes at 100%.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

Ampadu is better than most midfielders on the market these days, and is a player I'd happily pay good money for. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up at a serious team in 6-12 months.

And when he does move, everyone will be like "how did we let this happen?"

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

Got an enormous amount of respect for Ethan Ampadu. He's always been a star talent, but his career almost got thrown into the gutter with a bunch of nonsensical loans to relegation teams.

For him to hold steady, pay his dues and rise to the top is amazing.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

My view has always been that Estevao is very gifted but needs to be brought in slowly, without getting hyped too much. He's great, but not Lamine-level to be world-class as a teenager.

If I had said this a few months ago, people would've killed me, but now everyone agrees.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

I look at the hype machine/media system in Brazil (or other countries where clubs need to sell to survive) and get genuinely sad.

Estevao is playing exactly like how you'd expect a 19 y/o to. He's also playing the right amount. The noise around him comes from bad-faith actors.

[CFCDaily @CFCDaily]

Estevao perhaps the biggest disappointment so far. Needs to knock on the door to start and he’s completely justifying the reasons he’s been benched.

[ExpectedChelsea @ExpectedChelsea]

I get frustrated when I see reports of him wanting to be a #10, wanting to start every game, etc. Those are privileges he'll get as he develops. They are earned, not given.

For now, his focus needs to be on helping the team whenever/wherever he plays. He's not "above" anything.