Fernando Biazus

[Fernando Biazus @FBiazus]

@chamath @mvcinvesting Nebius investment thesis

[Fernando Biazus @FBiazus]

@wallstengine Muse

[The Investor @leiatheinvestor]

Moraes é Lula. Lula é Moraes.

[Fernando Biazus @FBiazus]

@crisinveste Oportunidade 🚀

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Wild 24 hours for AI and lots of different proposals have been made.

TLDR; the only *tangible* new fact is that OpenAI and Anthropic are going to have embedded 3rd party evaluators from unknown organizations with Dario floating METR as a possibility. Having 3rd party evaluators is smart as there is no Section 230 style liability shield for model outputs and showing a “duty of care” will be important in future litigation. Several internet companies might have gone bankrupt without Section 230 so limiting liability really matters.

There are minimal investment implications from this single new fact, but I do think that for anyone who wants a “smoother for longer” cycle then most constraints are good: wafers, watts, real rates and spreads. Excessive regulation is a different matter but I don’t think we are anywhere close to this even if the vector changed over the last 24 hours.

To summarize the events:

Dario made the most maximalist proposal of the weekend: embedded 3rd party evaluators, a national regulatory regime for models beyond a certain capability/ingredient threshold, a broad international regulatory pact between democracies, stricter limits on compute/distillation for China and then a different international regulatory regime that encompasses China. Before there is a national regulatory regime, he wants a Sherman act waiver so that Anthropic can safely coordinate with OpenAI and other frontier labs without antitrust fears. TBF, this latest proposal is much less maximalist than some of his prior proposals like “Policy on the AI Exponential,” where he advocated for an FAA for AI. I believe he is sincere in his beliefs. And despite all the protestations, all of this would also probably be good for his business over the long-term.

Sam agreed that embedded 3rd party evaluators were a good idea and stated they would implement them. Again, this is smart as should help limit future liability.

Elon said “Dario is right” and later specified that “Dario is right that there should be some oversight. Peer review of AI by competitors is the right way to start this off.” This would be a MPAA like self-regulatory structure for AI with regular calls between the labs plus a process where each new model is evaluated for safety by competitors for a 1-2 week period before being released. That is *wildly* different from Dario’s proposal and in-line with what David Sacks has been proposing. Elon also stated that nothing was going to slow down open-weight models.

Demis said that Dario’s essay was a “step in the right direction.” Dario also said that he was also open to Demis’ idea of a FINRA like self-regulatory structure as part of his proposal.

David Sacks had a thoughtful post where he said that Dario and Sam should pace unilaterally, called the antitrust waiver a cartel request and denied that METR was truly independent given their ties to Anthropic.

Sriram Krishnan, former White House AI advisor, noted that it would be important to have the 3rd party evaluators come from independent organizations that are not affiliated with any lab, which is basically an indirect statement about the relationship between METR and Anthropic which Sacks was explicit about.

Clem from Hugging Face said they were open to being a neutral 3rd party evaluator, which is interesting especially if Jensen was consulted before that post.

Alexander Wang from Meta noted that alignment would be an increasing focus going forward.

An executive order seems likely after all this and the language in this EO is going to be really important. It is possible to democratize and distribute AI broadly and safely without centralizing it in the hands of a few corporations who might each become more powerful than any single government.

I do not want a few humans in control of intelligence.

I want us all to have our own intelligences that reflect our own values and human variation in all of its richness.

Intelligence distribution over intelligence centralization FTW.

[Fernando Biazus @FBiazus]

@MattPRD @Muse I need one pls

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Anthropic pre-IPO gamesmanship post. Pure speculation but sharing as curious for thoughts.

Anthropic shifted from gross to net ARR accounting and stripped out both Meta and Chinese distillation from their $65 billion ARR number. Meta speculated to be over $5 billion in ARR so taking them out means they can easily weather it when Meta turns them off shortly after being public, which is widely expected. Also decreases the odds of Meta turning them off, watermelon quality dependent. All smart.

Then release Fable 5.1 so OpenAI feels confident releasing Astra. Vibes here on Astra are really good btw. I think that Astra was probably better than Anthropic was expecting.

Now there are whispers that Anthropic has solved Navier-Stokes, which would be super impressive.

Anthropic probably releases Fable 5.2, which should be better than Astra unless something is awry, sometime before the IPO. Likely also planning on showing a significant reacceleration in ARR in September which will of course leak to the press.

Grok 4.7, Meta’s Watermelon and ChatGPT 6.1 all likely coming in the next 6 weeks as well. All those labs are confident about their roadmaps in a way I have not seen in the last 18 months. And we will see about Gemini 4. Competitors get a vote in all these plans.

Grok Bot feels like the best agentic harness yet for enterprise use cases and Instinct is a promising agentic harness for consumer use cases. Should see variations of both from competitors soon. Grok Bot remains transformational for my use cases.

And all this is happening into a continued acceleration in overall AI demand.

Wild times.

As an aside, I think Krishna might turn out to be an exceptional CFO. His former Blackstone colleagues speak super highly of him. Going to be important as communicating clearly to Wall Street if they decide to shift their compute from inference to training will be difficult to digest the first time. Probably worth studying Amazon’s invest and then “check-in” margin strategy from 2010 through maybe 2016, which investors eventually understood.

[Pedro Albuquerque F @albuquerque_af]

Agora é a vez do Datafolha:

Entre todos os institutos, é a comparação que mostra a maior redução da diferença: de 15 pontos de vantagem para Lula em 2022 para apenas 2 pontos agora, em 2026.

Lula 46 x 44 Flávio

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

Como é possível que Paulo Gonet -- a pessoa mais incriminada pelas revelações de hoje, depois de Moraes -- continue a atuar neste caso como se fosse uma autoridade neutra? Ele está investigando a si mesmo! Ou melhor: bloqueando uma investigação sobre si mesmo.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@STF_oficial @GlobalAffairs One day, @Alexandre, this picture of you in prison will be real. Mark my words.

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

There are numerous revelations today that are beyond shocking about this judge and the huge corruption scandal engulfing him that make this prophecy closer than ever to becoming a reality:

[Fernando Biazus @FBiazus]

Hey Hyperliquid! Would be great to see your updates on Delta Direct - it's a nice way for me to instantly get notified on @getdelta when you have something new to announce. #DeltaDirect #hyperliquid #hype $HYPE

[Fernando Biazus @FBiazus]

Brazil Presidential election winner?
https://t.co/HR6ncZMe8x

[Renato Breia, CFP® @rbreia]

pessoal da globo news nao gostou muito da resposta....

[otimistaoficial @otimistaoficial]

Sou 1000000% anti PT, mas isso aqui é
Doença! Usem o cérebro, não seja igual os esquerdistas

[The Investor @leiatheinvestor]

++ POLÍCIA FEDERAL ENCONTRA FILHO DE LULA AO CUMPRIR MANDADO CONTRA EX-NORA DO PRESIDENTE EM INVESTIGAÇÃO DE CORRUPÇÃO NO MEC

++ MANDADO REVELA SUSPEITAS DE CORRUPÇÃO NA PASTA DO MINISTÉRIO DA EDUCAÇÃO, SOB COMANDO DE CAMILO SANTANA

[The Investor @leiatheinvestor]

O Brasil remunera quem não toma risco.

Beneficia quem não trabalha.

E pune quem produz.

É o país da improdutividade, do coitadismo e da taxação.

[Embaixada EUA Brasil @EmbaixadaEUA]

A separação dos poderes de um Estado é a maior garantia de liberdade já concebida pela humanidade. Nenhum poder, nem mesmo uma pessoa, pode acumular autoridade excessiva se for controlada pelos demais. Mas uma separação formal não significa nada se um dos poderes tiver meios de intimidar os demais a abrir mão de suas prerrogativas constitucionais. O que está acontecendo agora no Brasil ressalta esse ponto: um único ministro do STF usurpou poder ditatorial ao ameaçar líderes dos outros poderes, ou suas famílias, com detenção, prisão ou outras penalidades. Essa pessoa destruiu a relação histórica de proximidade entre Brasil e os Estados Unidos, ao tentar, entre outras coisas, aplicar extraterritorialmente a lei brasileira para silenciar indivíduos e empresas em solo americano. A situação é sem precedentes e anômala, justamente porque essa pessoa veste uma toga judicial. Sempre é possível negociar com líderes dos poderes Executivos ou Legislativos de um país, mas não com um juiz, que deve manter a aparência de que todas as suas ações são ditadas pela lei. Assim, nos encontramos em um beco sem saída, o usurpador se reveste do Estado de Direito, enquanto os demais poderes afirmam estar impotentes para reagir. Se alguém conhecer um precedente na história humana em que um único juiz, não eleito, tenha assumido o controle do destino de sua nação, por favor, avise. Queremos restaurar nossa amizade histórica com a grande nação do Brasil!

[Pedro Cerize @PedroCerize]

A grande derrota das instituições brasileiras é que a primeira punição pelos continuados abusos de autoridade do Alexandre tenha sido feito pelos EUA e não pelo próprio STF ou na falha deste, do Senado Federal.

Esse é o custo de termos instituições fracas