$ETH has added $10b+ in leverage since the election
This unwind will be painful, but $ETH won't go to zero
It will simply range from $2k to $4k for a very long time
The bright side is that Vitalik has adopted MooDeng
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Altcoin Update
There is a tendency among humans to believe that patterns and heuristics that have held true before, should always hold true.
One such case was that altcoin market caps (and ETH) should be making new highs in new cycles. Its increasingly clear that this is not the case and we are likely half way through a euthanasia coaster for many. Even if Bitcoin goes to new highs this doesn't mean altcoins will keep up.
This was the first cycle where alt market cap made a lower high. The next logical question is whether that means alt market cap makes a lower low. This I am unsure as I do not believe Solana makes a lower low at the trough. If Solana were to be removed from alt market cap, then it seems likely.
Bottom sometime in 2025 with the next wave driven by tokens related to decentralized AI infrastructure. AGI will need unstoppable rails for communication, value transfer, training, compute/inference, energy markets, data storage.
If you are working on these or other projects related to a post-AGI world (Robots, UBI, Utopia related, AI driven cancer, anti aging, general science research/medicine, etc) feel free to DM and pitch the @MechanismCap team
I will no longer be betting on further downside for ETH. We may have further to fall but effort is better focused on scouting buying opportunities moving forward
Don't cry because it's over. Smile because it happened
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I believe 98%+ of altcoins topped for the cycle except for maybe a handful of coins that may make some new highs in Q4 2024/Q1 2025
Bitcoin I think is in some transition stage to a supercyclish asset where it retains both properties from previous cycle behavior and also increasingly more of a mature macro asset
.@golemproject, a project that raised 820,000 $ETH in ICO in 2016, has transferred 36,000 $ETH to @binance, @coinbase, @bitfinex, etc. in the past 37 days, worth about $115 million.
Currently, Golem still has 231,400 $ETH, worth about $656 million.
https://t.co/x6SeqFj2KA
Most market participants are not appreciating the significance of a potential loss of a 4-month range on Bitcoin
The closest parallel we can draw is to that of the range of May 2021 where we also came off a parabolic rally of BTC and alts
$50B+ of crypto leverage here is similarly at near an ATH (chart does not include CME which is higher), but compounded by the fact that in this scenario we have ranged even longer (18 weeks vs 13), and we have not had extreme washouts yet while we had a few in the middle of the 2020-2021 bull market
It's likely that my initial estimates of low $50ks were too conservative and we see a more extreme reset to $40ks. Such an pullback would be quite damaging to the market and likely require a few months of chop/downtrend (recovery period) before a reversal of an upward trend would be possible
For more than a decade, Bitcoin and Altcoins have run along parallel tracks
We are at a point in time where those tracks start to split off
On a long time horizon, one can go one direction and the other the opposite
Why Ross Ulbricht Is A #Bitcoin Legend
Launched the largest Bitcoin market at $0.50
Had 200,000 $BTC taken by the government
Serving a 2x life sentence
A thread.