FootballPlayerRatings

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

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In Group L of the 2026 World Cup, England should be clear favorites:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

In Group C, Brazil are favorites, but there is always a non-zero probability of some kind of upset here:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Our very crude simulation of group I in the World Cup (not taking into account the actual squads, just players recently appearing for their national teams):

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

https://t.co/Fh2CsUR633

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Nikita Haikin will become the highest rated Norwegian goalkeeper, but can you guess who is rated as second, according to our plus-minus ratings?

(See link in reply.)

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Arsenal 3:1 favorites in the Premier League race:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

A back-to-back-to-back-to-back is still in play in the English Championship 25/26...

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

@KucykPromyczek Maybe! Not winning would still happen 15% of the time, but there are many matches left in which to stumble…

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Feels a bit wrong that Arsenal has a 85% chance of becoming champions in EPL this season?

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Arsenal has always been the favorite for taking the EPL this year, according to plus-minus ratings:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Early on, but not a good start for Man C. One model's probabilities for winner of the EPL:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Easily a top 100 player in the world, according to plus-minus.

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Top ranked football players born in 1996 according to plus-minus ratings:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Top/bottom of EPL is starting to crystallize...

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

@JTLonsdale Or, they could realize that maximizing the expected number of points is not the same as maximizing the probability of winning?

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

@Kakapo80 @Dmitri_tweets @fiago7 It is a regularized adjusted plus-minus rating. Plus minus ratings date back to the 1950s in hockey. The adjusted variants go back to the 00s for basketball. Regularized versions since 2010. Modern versions are essentially types of regression models.

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

@Dmitri_tweets @Kakapo80 @fiago7 Just «yet another player rating» at this point, I guess…

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

@Kakapo80 @fiago7 That is interesting. Using plus-minus ratings, the average players in Eredivisie are 9th in Europe, while Süper Lig players are 7th (but Eredivisie usually has some teams that are much better than the rest):

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

@SocialBarca_10 @fiago7 @Whu_Justin Then on 12th and 13th we see the first players from AZ:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

@SocialBarca_10 @fiago7 @Whu_Justin Plus-minus ratings can be used to measure the career performance of players. The top ten from Galatasaray+AZ are all from Galatasaray: