FootballPlayerRatings

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

If you want to read more about plus-minus ratings in football, you can now join our Patreon on a 7-day free trial: https://t.co/VfMyMg23Ad

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

As I keep adding data from women's football, and the dominance of Barcelona is quite clear. Top 10 domestic teams:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

@fid8 Using the same rating system as for women's football, indeed he was (for a brief while as Messi had a slump): https://t.co/5v0kmLvzMz

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Starting to calculate (advanced) plus-minus for women's football. Number one at the moment is Ewa Pajor:

[Kostas Pelechrinis @kpelechrinis]

Why is nobody talking about how the "game has changed" in soccer? Funny how we only hear "analytics ruined the game" when the optimization happens to move farther from the basket... (/s)

[Football Meets Data @fmeetsdata]

🇫🇷🇪🇸🇦🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 have gone so far ahead of everyone else in the rankings that they are basically guaranteed Pot 1 in all FIFA competitions (qualifiers and majors) for as long as FIFA keeps their rule of no points lost in knockout stages of major competitions.

Contrary to the true nature of an Elo-type system, this rule causes inflation of points at the top of the distribution (causing Professor Arpad Elo to turn in his grave).

It would require a series of meltdowns in qualifiers and/or group stages of major competitions for them to even come to a situation that they need to worry about their seeding.

Given that it gets easier and easier to qualify for the major tournaments and easier to get past the group stage due to constant expansions, the advantage is becoming de facto insurmountable.

What happens is you end up with a calcified ranking of teams with very little variability at the top, making it increasingly difficult for any new nation to climb to the higher spheres if they really deserve it on the pitch.

After enough time has passed the end result is the ranking based almost entirely on historical legacy of success, instead of a healthy combination of history and recent form.

Perhaps that was the idea from the start.

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

@ademir2z You can use a top-down player rating (such as regularized adjusted plus-minus ratings and variants thereof :-)

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Plus-minus ratings have spoken: this is the top rated match in the first round of the group stage matches:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

England beating the second best team of Group L in the first round:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

France and Norway just took a step towards the round of 32:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Germany looking good after 7-1:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Another pre-group prediction, this time Group E:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

After the first matches, Spain remains favorites in their groups, despite failing to beat Cape Verde:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Spain is not only overall favorites, they are also favorites in their group:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Brazil reduced their chances of winning the group, but are still likely to end top two:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Our prediction for Group C, based on plus-minus ratings of the players in the squads:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

In Group L of the 2026 World Cup, England should be clear favorites:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

In Group C, Brazil are favorites, but there is always a non-zero probability of some kind of upset here:

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Our very crude simulation of group I in the World Cup (not taking into account the actual squads, just players recently appearing for their national teams):

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

https://t.co/Fh2CsUR633

[FootballPlayerRatings @FLSimulator]

Nikita Haikin will become the highest rated Norwegian goalkeeper, but can you guess who is rated as second, according to our plus-minus ratings?

(See link in reply.)