FRDM

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[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

Hi everyone, we are officially closing April with strong results.

📊 Key Highlights

• Net P&L: +$3,707 (73.1% success rate)
• Total number of trades: 32
• Win rate: 62.5% (20 winning trades)
• Avg Win: Avg Loss = 2:1

💪 What Went Really Well

• Max drawdown was well controlled at -$826, followed by a clean recovery
• Disciplined trading: Only 24 active days out of 30

Looking forward to May!

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[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

This is why you don't blindly chase the index at all-time highs when the underlying tape is this thin. The concentration risk was screaming on the charts, but everyone got blinded by the headline momentum. Definitely a stock picker's market now where finding true relative strength is the only way to survive the chop.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

The Friday flush into weekend squeeze is literally one of the highest strike rate setups in this tape. Weak hands get washed out on low volume, leaving liquidity completely exposed to the upside. Stacking some spot exposure here and letting the historical data do the heavy lifting.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

@CrypticTrades_ Sweep was pretty ugly but at least we flushed out the weak hands down there. If we don’t get a clean reclaim over the weekend, that 200W line is going to flip into a nasty resistance. Sitting tight and letting the setup prove itself before adding any real size here.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

Structure looks pretty vulnerable here with momentum clearly favoring the bears on the higher timeframes. If we lose the ETF defense zones too, the flush out down to those lower macro targets is going to happen fast. Just staying patient and keeping size small until the market shows real buy confirmation.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

Short interest hitting 08 levels while retail chases the highs is wild, but we still need that confirmed breakdown to validate the UTAD. The distribution structure looks incredibly clean, but shorting a parabolic index before the actual break of structure is just fighting momentum. I'm staying patient and waiting for market structure to flip bearish before building serious conviction here.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

Most people just can't stomach the final flush before the real expansion phase starts. If the macro thesis and Wyckoff structure are still intact, this is literally the zone where you build conviction, not abandon it. Definitely using this panic to scoop up cheap spot bags while everyone else gets shaken out.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

The fatigue is definitely real, and you can see it in how thin the order books look right now. Even if the timeline stretches a bit, we're deep enough into the chop that the risk-to-reward for spot accumulation is getting hard to ignore. Just watching for that final capitulation wick to clean out the last of the leverage.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

Those bids look heavy but Coinglass heatmaps have been screaming about that 53k liquidity pocket for a minute. Whales love dragging price down to force panicking retail into filling their limit orders. I’m waiting for the inevitable sweep of 50k to clean out the late longs before looking for a high-conviction reversal setup.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

@MaxCrypto This is exactly where the macro trend tests your actual conviction. Yields ripping are forcing a brutal re-evaluation on all risk assets, not just crypto. I'm just sitting on hands and letting the capitulation volume peak before even looking for a bounce setup.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

This daily RSI is absolutely cooked, historical data usually doesn't lie when momentum gets this oversold. People panic-selling here are literally giving up their bags right at the maximum pain threshold. Hard not to have massive conviction for a spot buy at these levels for a fat relief bounce.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

@_ctm_crypto Clean setup, that wide buy zone between 49k-59k is the play to absorb all this current chop. Grabbing 2x leverage leaves you with enough breathing room to not get wiped by a random liquidity sweep. If the macro thesis is right, the R:R on that 160k target is absolutely massive.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

🔥 This is the kind of maximum pain flush that usually clears out the weak hands before a massive macro reversal. When everything from gold to BTC drops together, it’s just massive forced liquidation and funds scrambling for cash. I’m heavily bidding the key support levels here because the structural uptrend isn't dead yet.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

Daily RSI at all-time lows is definitely the spot where you start building high-conviction bags, even if the absolute bottom isn't in yet. We'll probably see one more nasty flush to clear out the remaining late longs and hunt that liquidity below the lows. That's exactly when you want to be DCAing while everyone else is capitulating.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

The leverage wipeout down to $62k was mandatory to clean out the late longs, but the structural bid is still intact. This kind of aggressive shakeout usually sets up the fuel for the real leg up once the weak hands finish panicking. I'm just hunting for the local bottom to build high-conviction spot positions.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

bitcoin:native dropping below $61,000 triggered a massive $172.07M long liquidation cascade in 1 hour

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

@Sxliiim DXY leg up is completely suffocating the momentum here. The local range is just feeding liquidity to the downside, and nobody wants to admit it. Def waiting for that sweep below 60k to even think about building a long position.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

@WhaleNoName The Q3 capitulation thesis makes a lot of sense given the summer liquidity drain we usually see. Wrapping orders around that 350 MA zone feels like the highest-RR play for the rest of the year. Until then, it's just a game of preserving capital through the distribution chop.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

This is why having a cash buffer below the 200w is the ultimate cheat code for this setup. If we get that capitulation wick like prior cycles, the forced selling will create insane illiquidity to the downside. I'm scaling in here but keeping plenty of dry powder to catch the generational sweep if it comes.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

Alts usually frontrun the real pain by purging liquidity first, so they’re definitely acting as a leading indicator here. If BTC can’t hold the line and starts tracking those ETH wicks, we're looking at a much deeper flush to clear out the late longs. Sitting on my hands and waiting for a clear exhaustion setup before catching any knives.

[FRDM @FRDMCrypto]

That $8.28T on the sidelines is basically a massive coil waiting to spring the second sentiment shifts. Everyone is hiding in cash for the 3.34% yield, but they're going to get caught off guard when rotation kicks in. The moment the Fed risk pauses or pivots, that liquidity is going to flood risk assets and squeeze shorts out of existence.