27. Engineer and long term investor. Tracking my wealth building journey and giving opinions. Current holdings: $SOFI $AMZN $ASML $MSCI $MSFT $FTNT $MA
Whether you realize it or not, this is exactly why your analysis is so poor. If you’re trying to cover hundreds of companies, you’re inevitably going to understand many of them only at a surface level. Your SoFi analysis makes that painfully obvious. You know enough to make a video that gets clicks, but not enough to actually understand the business you’re analyzing.
Have a good night. It’s been fun. I genuinely hope you take some time to reflect on the criticism instead of immediately dismissing anyone who challenges your analysis. Maybe there’s something to learn from it.
This was never about whether you invest in SoFi. I couldn’t care less if anyone does, and no stock should have everyone bullish on it. My issue is that you care more about engagement farming than providing value. You’ve been making bearish SoFi videos for four years while the company has continued to execute at an extremely high level. You make them because you know SoFi gets clicks. Then when the analysis gets challenged, you turn it into “you just love SoFi” instead of addressing the criticism.
I missed number 5 from the copy and paste from notes.
5. You said: “They can accelerate the revenues at any time they want simply by lowering their thresholds.”
And now your response is basically, “Yes, obviously.”
Great. Then you missed my point.
Of course they can. Every lender can.
Show me that they are.
Show deteriorating FICO, income, DTI, approval standards, early delinquencies or vintage performance while originations accelerate. Saying a lender theoretically has the ability to loosen underwriting isn’t evidence that it is doing so.
It’s also extremely embarrassing how you’ve composed yourself online today for someone who presents themselves as a professional. People can disagree on an investment thesis without resorting to condescension, telling people to “pay closer attention,” or responding to legitimate criticism with “Google it.”
If you’re going to publish investment analysis and build a business around people trusting that analysis, you should be able to defend it when someone challenges the assumptions behind it. The way you’ve responded today says far more about the strength of your analysis than any sarcastic comment you could make toward the people questioning it.
When people “pay closer attention” to your “analysis” like I did, they just realize you are a moron.
@marketswithmay Just realized the response got a little messed up from having to copy and paste from notes and put it into multiple posts (not a big X user, maybe there is a better way to do this in the future), but think I got the point across!
@nanalyzetweets Hello, I am waiting for you to provide value here. Your audience demands it.
Maybe @marketswithmay can provide feedback on my response to you!
But if you’re going to make the bear case, make the actual bear case. Show that SoFi isn’t being adequately compensated for the credit risk it’s taking. Show that newer loan vintages are deteriorating. Show that they’re lowering underwriting standards to drive growth. Show that fee revenue isn’t diversifying the business. Show that normalized returns don’t justify the valuation.
Those would all make me reconsider the investment. But the fact that the loans are unsecured, that there are millions of federal student loan borrowers in default, or that traditional banks trade at lower P/Es doesn’t. You clearly don’t understand how to analyze this type of business and are writing it off simply because you don’t understand it.
@j208988@fiscal_ai Again, I’ve said nothing about the numbers. Only that the text does not match the chart provided.
Do you think it does? Why so angry?
@j208988@fiscal_ai Reading and comprehension is more critical.
The text does not match the chart provided.
I didn’t say anything about the numbers, only that the chart does not match what is said above it.