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Our official Week 4 picks — the community cheat sheet 📋🏈

All 33 bets across both books, units included. Why we like each one — thread 👇

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@AdamSchefter @CourtneyRCronin 38-year-old Case Keenum hadn't started a game since December 2023, then walked into Monday night and hung 27 on the previously unbeaten Eagles. All this "direction" theater is for Aaron Glenn's film room, because the board's already laying 3.5 on the mystery. 🏈😏

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@marisportspicks Betting “no” is always on option on prediction markets.

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🌬️ Steelers–Browns weather watch 🌬️

Tomorrow night in Cleveland: winds 8-13 mph at Huntington Bank Field, gusts pushing 25, building through the game. Not a monsoon, but on a short week with a 38.5 total, the kicking game starts doing math.

Here's the part that matters: that total opened at 40.5. It's 38.5 now, the lowest of Week 4, and the money came in on the under days ago. So the wind isn't a secret angle — it's why the number is there.

If it ticks down more before kickoff, that's steam, not information. 📉 Bet the weather early or don't bet it. 🏈💨

@Steelers @Browns

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

@AlexMonahaqyrt Respect gang

We’re here to even out the edge

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

@CFBKings It's a 12-team playoff this year, the 24-team version is a 2027 proposal. The Tebow half is perfect though. Back then a September loss ended seasons; now a two-loss team in November is still alive, so November quit spots barely exist anymore. 🏈📊

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

@On3 Kid flipped his commitment from Georgia, finally gets his revenge game at Sanford... and lands on the injury report Wednesday. If Jared Curtis can't go, the backup hasn't thrown a touchdown all year and Georgia's laying 24.5. That's a long afternoon. 🏈😬

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

@SharpFootball Last playoff win: January 2017. Since then, 28 other head coaches have won a playoff game. But sure, Vegas: Steelers -2.5 on the road tomorrow night like it's 2008. 🏈💀😂

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

😶🚨 Tied 20-20, 1:49 left, and nobody threw the flag. The most famous non-call in NFL history sent the Rams to the Super Bowl and Saints -3 backers to the poorhouse. January 20, 2019:

The Saints were 3-point favorites at home against the Rams (per OddsShark). Tied 20-20, 1:49 left, 3rd-and-10. Drew Brees threw for Tommylee Lewis at the Rams' 13. Nickell Robey-Coleman arrived before the ball did, never played it, and caught Lewis in the helmet too. No flag. 😶

New Orleans kicked the field goal, 23-20. The Rams got the ball back with 1:41 left, drove 45 yards, and Greg Zuerlein tied it from 48 with 15 seconds left. Overtime: Brees threw a pick, and Zuerlein ended it from 57. Rams 26-23. They never led until the kick that sent them to the Super Bowl. 🏆

Afterward Robey-Coleman admitted it flat out: "Oh, hell yeah. That was PI." (per Sports Illustrated). The NFL admitted the error in court filings. The league fined him $26,739 (per ESPN's Adam Schefter).

Saints -3 backers didn't lose a football bet that day. They lost on a whistle that never came. Playoff spreads assume the rules get enforced. Sometimes they don't. 📉

@Saints
@RamsNFL

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

Malcolm Butler killed more tickets with one play than just about anyone in Super Bowl history. 😱

February 1, 2015. Super Bowl XLIX. The only Super Bowl ever to close pick'em, per the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

Seattle's down 28-24. Jermaine Kearse makes the circus catch, Marshawn Lynch rumbles to the 1 with 1:06 to go. One yard from the lead, the win, and every Seahawks ticket cashing.

Then Russell Wilson throws. Butler jumps the slant at the goal line with 26 seconds left. 28-24 final. 💀

Anyone holding Seattle went from counting their money to pure disbelief in four seconds flat. I've never seen a Super Bowl bad-beat ranking without this play in the top five. 🤮

What's the worst beat you've ever taken? Anything topping this? 👀

https://t.co/3FrOkWWdWd

@Patriots
@Seahawks

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

🔄🚨🚨JOEY PORTER JR.🚨🚨

Jerry finally got his corner. Per Tom Pelissero, Joey Porter Jr. is headed to Dallas, with Pittsburgh and the Cowboys putting the finishing touches on the deal.

Don't expect tomorrow night's number to move on this. Porter was already ruled out for the Browns game, so the books priced his absence this afternoon. The real story is the next month. Dallas buys a big press corner for a secondary that just gave up 34 to the Ravens, and Pittsburgh's corner room is suddenly thin with Ramsey questionable for tomorrow night. 👀🏈

@JoeyPorterJr
@Steelers
@Cowboys

[Tom Pelissero @TomPelissero]

Trade! The Steelers and Cowboys are finalizing a deal sending CB Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas, sources tell @ringer @netflixsports.

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

@KevinAdams26 One and six in their last seven trips to Cleveland, so the dread is completely earned. Browns are sitting at +126 tomorrow and this building's been a house of horrors for Pittsburgh. Live dog. 😬🐶💰

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🏈📉 J.J. McCarthy is a New York Giant. The cost: a 2027 fifth-round pick. Two years after Minnesota took him No. 10 overall.

Per ESPN's Kevin Seifert, via the Elias Sports Bureau: McCarthy is one of four first-round quarterbacks in the last 25 years to start 10 or fewer games for the team that drafted him. The other three: Paxton Lynch, Trey Lance, and Johnny Manziel. 🤯

Ten starts, 6-4, and by September he was third on the Vikings' depth chart behind Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz. (Per NBC Sports.) The Manziel comp isn't quite fair — his story was off the field, McCarthy's was injuries and a depth chart. But that's the list he's on.

The books won't move a number over a future-fifth backup, and they're right not to. But the Giants just told you what they think of their own quarterback room: they're 2-1 and auditioning the 2027 guy in Week 4. When a winning team shops for quarterbacks, believe the front office, not the record. 🧮

Second acts happen in this league. Does McCarthy get his in New York? 👀

@Giants
@Vikings

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Of the last five unbeatens in the SEC, the one getting the least respect is Mississippi State. They're 4-0 with ESPN's No. 4 strength of record and ESPN still has them on the wrong side of the bubble 😤🏈

Alabama walks into Starkville on Saturday and the Bulldogs are catching the better part of a touchdown at home. Win that and the bubble talk is over.

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@danorlovsky7 @Browns Mason Graham has four sacks in three games. From the interior. That ties T.J. Watt for second in the whole league 😤🏈

Cleveland traded Myles Garrett and the pass rush just moved inside. Aaron Rodgers on a short week against that interior? That 38.5 total is in trouble 👀

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

🏟️ Thursday night in Cleveland has been brutal for Pittsburgh

The Browns have won NINE straight home games on Thursday night. The Steelers haven't won in Cleveland since 2022.

Tomorrow: Steelers -2.5 at Huntington Bank Field, total sitting at 38.5.

The last meeting? Browns 13, Steelers 6. A rock fight. 🪨

The market says the nightmare ends tomorrow. You laying the 2.5 with Pittsburgh or riding the Thursday fortress? 🏈👇

This rivalry has produced some all-timers:
https://t.co/KaFfjjrIl6

@Steelers @Browns

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@CrackSlinging @15TheRealGoat @PFF @CrackSlinging Fair — if he's that easy to read on 3rd and long, QBs should be living there. But 5 targets, 0 catches, 3 breakups and a pick in Week 2 says readable isn't the same as beatable. 🏈👀

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

@ESPNCFB @ReceDavis @PatMcAfeeShow Two true sophomores, both 4-0, and 22 touchdown passes between them — Taylor's 14 leads the entire country 🤯🔥 Rece might be right about 2028, but first: Bama -5.5 in Starkville with a 59.5 total... somebody's perfect season ends Saturday.

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

@Raiders Kubiak joins Madden and Callahan as the only coaches to open 3-0 in silver and black — and both of those runs ended in championship games 🏆😤 But let's be real: 3-14 last year and a 1-8 combined opponent slate is why the market still has KC -4.5 at Allegiant... prove it Sunday.

[Fair Line NFL @FairLineNFL]

🤕🚨🚨ZACK BAUN🚨🚨🤕

The Eagles' every-down linebacker is in the concussion protocol, per Mike Garafolo. Zack Baun took the hit Monday night in the loss to the Bears, and on a six-day week with the Rams coming to town Sunday, Rotoworld has him "firmly on the wrong side of questionable."

This is the worst possible week to lose him. All three starting interior linemen are banged up (Jordan Davis and Moro Ojomo limited Wednesday, Jalen Carter still fighting the wrist), and Jihaad Campbell showed up limited too.

Philly's front seven is being held together with tape right now. If Baun can't clear by Friday, Sunday's line has to wear it. 🏈

https://t.co/tp0vddcCof

@Eagles

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🏈 The 2026 Steelers are playing their first season since 2006 without Mike Tomlin on the sideline — he's on NBC's Sunday crew now.

Nineteen seasons. 193-114-2. Never one losing record — the longest streak in NFL history. Thirteen playoff trips, eight AFC North titles, a Super Bowl XLIII win. 🏆 He tied Chuck Noll with those 193 regular-season wins. Then the 30-6 wild-card loss to Houston, and he walked away on his own terms in January. 📺

The gambler's footnote: Tomlin catching points at home was the most famous coach trend on the board. Per TeamRankings, he went 21-7-3 ATS as a home underdog before last season's 2-3 skid in the role. For nearly two decades the market paid his floor every September. 💰

That trend retired with him. Pittsburgh native Mike McCarthy has the headset now, and the books price the Steelers without their 19-year safety net. 🤔

The team's tribute: https://t.co/2nFzmbVgAC

@Steelers