ValueHunter

[ValueHunter @FairValueHunter]

@Ren_aramb When would you consider trimming the position in $POET ?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

If you’re curious about $AXTI:

It’s down 21% on the new potential dilution news.

Board wanted to add 50M more shares (up to $2B worth to dilute) for shareholders vote in the 14th.

70m -> 120m shares.

I say this about $IREN excessive $6B dilution and it’s the same with AXT price proposal that I hold.

I would not “trust in management” to use it wisely and the fact it’s filed is a red flag.

That being said: we’ll see what happens on the 14th. If it passes for 50m more share authorized dilution, I personally would not hold.

But it fails, I expect a recovery.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear. 

Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD.

They dominate the market for:

-Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market),

-serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck)

-and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck)

I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation. 

You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”…

Then you go further:

“To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers”

Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US?

Hammond

Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart: 

“Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”. 

Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know?

Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers")

Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry). 

The most compelling signal:

-> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD. 

Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog.

Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD.

Also:

“Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now.

Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike. 

Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp.

But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition.

Regardless still looks cheap. 

Just a TLDR: 

$AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear.

Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online.

I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long.

Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.

[ValueHunter @FairValueHunter]

@daniel_koss Mike Alfraud

[ValueHunter @FairValueHunter]

@Mr_Derivatives 🙋‍♂️

[ValueHunter @FairValueHunter]

@commonsenseplay Mike alfraud

[ValueHunter @FairValueHunter]

@aleabitoreddit What do u think about memory now after google released that news ?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

FYI: I went long on $ARM at $139.

Genuinely a compelling long at $143B MC as markets shift more from training -> inference.

Then $ARM AI CPUs cannibalize the market for inference and $NVDA market share.

Especially as LLMs get more lightweight.

The projections to $25B/revenue (5x revenue) are already insane to justify risk-reward.

[ValueHunter @FairValueHunter]

@daremarket 670

[ValueHunter @FairValueHunter]

@daremarket 789

[ValueHunter @FairValueHunter]

@ShurtzJose48765 @aleabitoreddit Personally not looking at US miners…

[ValueHunter @FairValueHunter]

@aleabitoreddit Oh okay, do you have some names you are watching, im guessing you aren’t watching US miners?

[PhotonBull @PhotonBull]

$SOI $SLOIF 🇫🇷 is the most undervalued monopoly in tech.

While everyone bets on the chips, @Soitec_Official owns the material they’re built on.

Their Smart Cut tech to make Silicon-on-Insulator (SOI) wafers is in 100% of 5G phones.

Now, they’re bringing that same monopoly to:

- AI Data Centers (Photonics-SOI)
- EVs (SmartSiC)
- Edge AI (FD-SOI)

Revenue hit €891M in FY25. Still trading at only €1.9B.

No photonics premium. No AI trade premium. No monopoly premium.

Nothing seems priced in here.

[🐧 @pennycheck]

Just to reiterate something that it is super important to be cognizant of.

There is absolutely zero precedent for President Trump.

There is absolutely zero precedent
where one truth social post can come at any time to flip global mkts either way at any moment.

There are zero priors for this situation

This is very literally completely and totally unprecedented in every way.

Manage accordingly

[Investing Addict @InvestingAddict]

"Mom, how did we get so poor?"

"Your father attempted to outperform the S&amp;P 500."