Alexandros

🇨🇭-based, 🇸🇪-educated, 🇬🇷 at heart 💙| Investor in companies (passion & job) | All statements are personal opinion | No investment advice - DYODD!

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@Aristidis

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o „and some in…“

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o I hear the Cyclades are nice, especially the small and uninhabited islands.

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o In case you relate the content to tickers, may I ask $TGA.L to be included / considered alongside the US & Aussie names as well? 🙏🏼

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o For the benefit of your readers, there is also the other and exciting side of the spectrum: @Aristidis & team. You get both there.

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o Fair points. I have the luxury of thinking this way as I only run Family PAs and I view the exposure in % of net worth not % of portfolio and that would look acceptable 😉.

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o Well put, Ed. Good buying is never comfortable, and my nibbling on $ECO, $BORR and $HSHP certainly felt like putting hard-earned cash on fire.

Then again, I start thinking these three tickers together with a lot of cash on hand should be my entire portfolio…

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o To nobody‘s surprise here 😉

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o Thank you and bon voyage home!

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o Thx for taking us in the room! If you can, keep going the next few days 🫶🏼

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o @HUA14 Times Square, really Ed? 😂 All those Bordeaux 🍷 turned you into a Euro-Touri?

Take your time!

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o Not endorsing, just presenting another view. Thoughts?

[Manihi @ManihiB]

The "restocking tanker rally" thesis has some serious flaws.

Everyone and their broker is pushing the reopening case for tanker equities right now. The thesis, in short: global inventories need to rebuild, a flood of cargoes hits the market, rates rip.

Equities and FFAs are pricing a goldilocks scenario. But they're ignoring some key facts.

1. Distance. SPR releases and a huge Atlantic/East arb are what's held this market up. That arb is now collapsing — and so, naturally, will the Atlantic long-haul cargoes it was pulling east.
And on the refill side: rebuilding the US SPR is low-to-zero ton-miles. Those barrels come largely from domestic Gulf Coast supply — pipeline and short-haul, not VLCC cargo. So "SPR needs to restock" sounds bullish and moves zero needles for crude tankers.

2. "Restocking in China" isn't a new event. The bulls treat it like one. It's not. The pre-war world was ALREADY restocking hard — China alone adding ~1mb/d for over a year. So "back to restocking" just means back to the old baseline. That's not a surge, that's a Tuesday.

China ate the entire war shock from storage — drew down, cut runs, throttled the teapots. They didn't panic-buy during the war. WHY would they start now?

3. We could go below baseline, not above. A slower return of barrels, layered on top of demand destruction that's already happened, doesn't get you to a surge. It risks the opposite.

4. The fleet-imbalance argument. Some say more tonnage is now stuck in the Atlantic and that will fuel a rally. Fair — short term. But it does nothing for tanker earnings if you're simply not in position. It's an argument for a brief spike where a few lucky owners cash in. That's not enough to reprice equities over time.

5. The strongest pushback. "OK, we go back to baseline — but baseline was well above 100k/d." True. The market was ripping pre-war. Sinokor bought everything in sight and held vessels back from spot. The rally started in early January, when VLCC rates bottomed at 28k/d.
So if your reason to buy tanker equities at 1.3–1.5x NAV is that you thought they were simply underpriced before the war and still are +25% later — fair enough. That's a real view.
But be clear-eyed: the "restocking thesis" itself comes with holes, and risks attached.

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o A stragety centered around active trading based on proprietary econometrics now proudly shifted to 0% portfolio turnover - oh and miraculously turned over half the book for earnings related trades shortly thereafter.
All of that effort for negative returns…

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@ed_fin This deserves a Greek „NA!“

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o Great format!🫶🏼

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o You enjoy the selling, sir. Not the buying, never the buying!

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o Keep us posted 🤞🏼

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o Among those upcoming IPOs you know of, are there candidates that could be seem as „quality“, or just more shitcos from a corp. gov. perspective incl. an arm that remains private?

[Alexandros @FamakisInvestor]

@contang_o Wonderfully said. I think at heart they are asset players and market timers, thus adjusting to the opportunity set which leads to those weirdly mixed fleets.
The good ones pair it with commercial excellence.
Fleet purity is definitely not of interest.