FarmGate Advisory

Grain marketing, strategic advisors and domestic grain brokerage firm in the Great Southern region of Western Australia.

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

Harvest is getting closer. Now is the time to start making plans for getting the crop off and money in the bank

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

Current global crush capacity circa 65 to 70 MMT

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

Despite the pullback in canola markets, current levels still represent excellent selling opportunities for canola growers.
This market has shown us plenty of times that crush capacity is a limiting factor, and is often why we see big sell-offs.

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

We keep hearing that harvest is late this year.
Last year, CBH cracked 2 MMT of receivals on the 3rd of November. This year, it's 2 days later.

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

How many more legs can this thing give us?
#wheat

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

And to isolate Australian-origin products. All cereals is wheat, barley, oats, and sorghum.

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

A great few weeks in the wool market, with solid Chinese buying.
Below, Chinese imports of wool and wool products, and barley over the last 20years.

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

Is there seasonality in fx markets?
5 of the last 5 periods 15th Sept to 15th Oct, the AUD has weakened against the USD.
Probably random and unrelated to the time of year, but maybe of note.

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

If you have got this far, our estimates, derived from GIWA areas x 5yr max trending yields:
- Wheat 12,885,000
- Barley 8,350,000
- Canola 4,015,000
- Oats 980,000
Total 27,135,000.

As we know, September estimates have wide variance

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

GIWA report day. Here is how the final report compares to September estimates, over the last decade.

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

On the flip side, oats have disappointed 4 years out of the last 9

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

@WheatWatcher Good work. Important feedback for those still drafting responses.

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

The Hope Within our Work

#keepthesheep

https://t.co/OKG4YJtHKA

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

Great work team

[Episode 3 (EP3) @Episode3net]

9 articles today on various sheep live export issues. There will be very little that is not covered in these.

Coming to emails near you. Subscribe below:

https://t.co/ctDTaZO8Qq

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

@farmagro1 The market I'm seeing is $140/t delivered South Coast, $110/t delivered West Coast.

Every chance it's gold in April/May if good quality.

[Richard Avery @Avery_Farming]

Ouch.

All that work and cost in growing them, only to sell 30% below their current market value. Be careful this harvest folks

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

Based on this outcome, it appears as though one side negotiated this a lot better than the other... Why fold so easily @SenatorWong?
https://t.co/8OV0ThXJih

[Julianne Hill @Julianne_Hill]

@waynepech Local farmer Wayne Pech spoke to @GRDCWest
Albany updates on his emissions, which he has been tracking since 2020. His emissions higher on livestock vs crop. His advice? If you produce offsets, don't sell them; & in hindsight be a 100% shareholder. @Stirlings2Coast

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

@JohnSug C'mon foreign guy and the other guy!!! Also big ups to a corpse for completing the first loop.

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

A great chart pack from Ola Hanson posted weekly

[FarmGate Advisory @FarmGateWA]

Producers using derivatives to manage price risk should be paying attention to fund positioning and how its sizing is related to historical volatility. Smaller daily moves = larger sizing = more powder in the keg