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小道🌲🐾

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

Charlie Munger understood the real payoff of wealth isn’t luxury - it’s freedom.
Freedom to say no.
Freedom to walk away.
Freedom to live life on your own terms.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Samuel Benner, a farmer from the 1800s, published a book with market analysis on periods of panic, good times to buy, and good times to sell. 150 years later, his analysis has proven to be remarkably accurate.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Stock Market Crash "Hindenburg Omen" Triggered 🚨

The Hindenburg Omen, an indicator that correctly detected the 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes, triggered simultaneously on Wednesday for both the Nasdaq and the NYSE 🤯👀

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

20-year annualized returns by asset class (2002-2021):

• REITs: 11.2%
• S&P 500: 9.5%
• 60/40 portfolio: 7.4%
• Bonds: 4.3%
• Average investor: 3.6%
• Inflation: 2.2%

The market gave investors 9.5%. The average investor got 3.6%. The difference is what happens between buy and sell.

The S&P 500 has never been negative over 20 years. The average investor barely beat inflation. Same starting line, completely different finishes.

[Bluekurtic Market Insights @Bluekurtic]

S&P 500 just logged its 18th ATH of 2026 and 7th in May.

Since 1950, only 3 other years saw $SPX make 7+ May highs and each delivered double digit returns:

1995: +34.1%
2013: +29.6%
2017: +19.4%

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

"Historically, these are classic early-cycle signs: businesses see more activity, so they add hours and temps before committing to costly full-time hires"

@DualityResearch

[Macro Charts @MacroCharts]

Fascinating data from GS:

“On March 27, dealer gamma positioning hit -$7.24bn – the 2nd most negative GEX print on record. Six weeks later, dealer gamma closed Friday at +$21.3bn, now the 8th highest positive GEX reading ever recorded. To put that in perspective, 7 of the top 10 highest GEX readings in history came during 2021.”

“That was peak post-stimulus melt-up – retail call buying was everywhere, realized vol was suppressed, upside chasing was aggressive, and dealers were structurally long gamma… importantly, those 2021 episodes (ex-November) were not bearish omens – they were periods where the market continued grinding materially higher.”

Will be interesting to see how this develops…

[Bluekurtic Market Insights @Bluekurtic]

S&P 500 just logged its 17th ATH of 2026.

Since 1950, there have been 31 years with 17+ ATHs. Excluding 2018, $SPX finished higher in 30 of those, with an average gain of 19.7%.

A similar move in 2026 would put the index near 8200.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Uh Oh 🤯👀

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

"Misery Index (CPI y/y + unemployment rate) increased for a fourth consecutive month in April and sits at a 3-year high"

@LizAnnSonders