Tom Lee on why $BMNR increased their buys this past week:
“We increased our buying as we believe this pullback in ETH prices does not reflect the strengthening of Ethereum fundamentals. This is not surprising given we are in the early stages of crypto spring.”
MASTERCARD JUST PUT CRYPTO INTO THE AI PAYMENTS RACE.
Mastercard launched Agent Pay for Machines, a new system for AI agents and machines to make permissioned payments at machine speed.
The partner list is the signal:
🔹Coinbase
🔹Ripple
🔹Solana
🔹Polygon
🔹Aave
🔹OKX
🔹Stripe
AI agents need payments that move instantly, globally and programmatically.
Crypto is being pulled into the payment layer.
$ETH $SOL
Everyone outside of solana is wasting their time writing threads on why solana is cooked AGAIN.
Meanwhile, Solana teams, including Anza are shipping like crazy in the bear to position themselves for the bull.
Solana will win.
Pure $BMNR hopium math:
BMNR’s “Alchemy of 5%” target is roughly 6.035M ETH.
If they get there, $BMNR becomes the closest thing the public market has to a giant Ethereum treasury + staking yield vehicle.
Now imagine $ETH wakes up again.
Assuming BMNR reaches 5% of ETH supply and share count stays around 586M, rough NAV/share looks like this:
ETH $3K = BMNR NAV/share around $32
ETH $4K = around $42
ETH $5K = around $52
ETH $6K = around $63
ETH $7K = around $73
ETH $8K = around $83
ETH $9K = around $94
ETH $10K = around $104
But that is only NAV.
In a real ETH bull cycle, treasury stocks do not always trade at 1x NAV.
They can trade at 2x, 3x, even 4x NAV if the market believes they can keep raising capital, staking ETH, increasing ETH per share, and becoming the dominant public ETH proxy.
So the dream math becomes:
ETH $3K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $64-$127
ETH $4K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $84-$168
ETH $5K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $105-$210
ETH $6K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $125-$251
ETH $7K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $146-$292
ETH $8K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $167-$333
ETH $9K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $187-$374
ETH $10K
BMNR at 2x-4x NAV = roughly $208-$416
That is why $BMNR gets weird.
It is not just ETH beta.
It is ETH beta + staking yield + treasury premium + reflexivity.
The reflexivity is the fun part:
If BMNR trades above NAV, they can potentially raise capital at a premium.
If they raise capital at a premium and buy more ETH, NAV/share can grow.
If NAV/share grows, the market may reward the premium again.
That is the MSTR-style loop, but for ETH.
Now $BMNU is the degenerate side quest.
$BMNU is 2x daily $BMNR.
Not 2x forever.
Daily.
That means if BMNR trends cleanly, BMNU can go absolutely vertical.
But if BMNR chops sideways, BMNU can bleed even if the long-term thesis is right.
Rough dream math from around $1 BMNU:
If BMNR goes to $60-$70, BMNU could be $10-$15+ in a clean trend.
If BMNR goes to $100-$150, BMNU could be $35-$80+.
If BMNR goes to $200+, BMNU can become a full chaos instrument.
But only if the path is clean.
A violent up/down chop can destroy the math.
Timeline for the dream:
ETH $3K-$4K: possible in a strong recovery window if ETH reclaims $2K, ETF flows return, and ETH/BTC turns.
ETH $5K-$6K: more likely during a real bull expansion where ETH reclaims ATH and institutions rotate beyond BTC.
ETH $8K-$10K: late-cycle dream scenario, probably needs ETF demand, CLARITY-style regulatory tailwinds, stablecoin/tokenization growth, staking demand, and full ETH narrative revival.
Simple read:
$ETH is the asset.
$BMNR is the public treasury vehicle.
$BMNU is the leveraged lottery ticket.
If ETH returns to beast mode and BMNR reaches 5%, the stock does not need to trade at NAV forever.
The real hopium is mNAV expansion.
That is where the numbers get stupid.
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Join Galaxy’s Global Markets Trading Desk at 11:00 AM ET for a discussion on how prediction markets are evolving into an institutional asset class.
We'll unpack:
🔹 The CLARITY Act OTC prediction market trade
🔹 Institutional use cases
🔹 The future of event-driven markets
Register here: https://t.co/vNgkJ41eyM
Briscoe Wind Farm is now fully integrated into Soluna's operations.
Routine, scheduled maintenance completed.
150 MW of owned renewable generation, co-located with Project Dorothy.
The ownership chain from generation to compute at Dorothy 1 is complete.
#RenewableComputing $SLNH
Headed to DC for a full day of meetings. I still am an optimist and think we will get this Clarity act over the hill. Senators on both sides have spent an inordinate amount of time on this bill. It’s a very complicated piece of legislation and we are down to two or three issues where the solution seems fair and good for our country.
The division in our country makes agreement on an issue difficult. Feels like this could be a bright spot in showing the American people that congress can still work together.
This is it though. The next four weeks is all we have. Then summer recess, and election season which is gonna get more divisive.
I appreciate all the efforts the industry has put in on this. The burden of change does not get shared equally. The people in the DC trenches have a patience and persistence that is admirable.
Tom Lee’s Bitmine Buys $123M More Ethereum
Tom Lee (@fundstrat) backed Bitmine (@BitMNR) purchased another 75,000 $ETH worth roughly $123 million over the past 12 hours, per lookonchain.
The purchases were sourced from Kraken and FalconX, according to onchain data.
The move adds to Bitmine’s growing Ethereum treasury strategy.