Felipe Molina

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*MAG 7 INDEX DROPS 8.9% IN JUNE, WORST MONTH SINCE MARCH 2025

[TT3 @TradingThomas3]

This should end well for all involved 🍿

[Barchart @Barchart]

Roughly 20% of all U.S. tax revenue is used to pay interest on debt, approaching an all-time high 🚨 Probably Fine? 🤔

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at its lowest level since July 1983. Over the past 5 years we've seen a drawdown of 285 million barrels (46% decline).

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

New SEP sees core PCE rising 3.3% this year, well above the 2.7% in March. That means no disinflation from right now, because the most recent core inflation reading was indeed 3.3%; it also assumes no more inflation (i.e., Iran war is over). The median forecast of those submitting projections shows 2.5% next year, also notably up on 2.2% last time.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

For the 3rd month in row, AI was the #1 reason for job cuts in the US.

88k job cuts were attributed to AI so far this year, a 60% increase over the AI-driven job cuts in all of 2025.

https://t.co/notk7mWk7Z

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

BOFA SEES RISING US REFLATION ODDS INTO 2027

Bank of America says recent macro data increases the odds of a US reflation mini-cycle lasting through 2027–2028. The bank expects the cycle to remain intact but sees limited upside in peak Treasury yields, while favoring tactical yield curve and duration strategies. BofA highlights 10-year yields above 4.4% as attractive entry levels for medium-term positioning.

[Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian]

🚨BREAKING: U.S AIRSTRIKES IN HORMUZ STRAIT

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Trump: Iran's enriched uranium will either be turned over to the US or destroyed

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*US-ISRAELI STRIKES TARGET IRAN VESSELS IN HORMUZ STRAIT: NOUR

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

FED'S PAULSON: RIGHT HIKE MIGHT BE CONSIDERED IF GROWTH MOVES ABOVE POTENTIAL OR OTHER INFLATION RISKS EMERGE

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

*CITI SAYS OIL UNDERPRICED ON TAIL RISKS

*CITI EXPECTS BRENT TO HIT $120 NEAR TERM

*CITI FORECASTS 2027 OIL AT $80–90 BASE CASE

*CITI SEES BRENT BULL CASE AT $150

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

Investors still believe the Fed will act decisively to ensure inflation doesn’t run out of control. But it’s clear they don’t understand the consequences. This time, reining in inflation will require higher rates and more QT than the prior attempt. That means a financial crisis.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

From @CNBC: "Foreign governments cut U.S. Treasurys in March as the Middle East war forced central banks to liquidate dollar reserves, defending local currencies against an energy shock that sent exchange rates tumbling."
#economy #markets #bonds

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

We've officially reached the "brutal" stage in the global bond market sell-off. The 10y10y forward yield (red) is making new highs all over the place. Japan's 10y10y forward has risen 30 basis points in just a few days. Even Swiss 10y10y forward is rising.
https://t.co/wLyQataCjN

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

The S&P 500 has never been more concentrated in just two stocks than it is today with Nvidia and Apple representing over 15% of the index.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Between April 2021 and April 2026, monthly retail and food services sales (adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday and trading day differences) increased by 24.3%. While that sounds like the economy must be humming along nicely, sales were essentially flat when adjusted for inflation.
@StatistaCharts @uscensusbureau

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

MORTGAGE RATES HIT 6.75%, HIGHEST SINCE JULY

30-year mortgage rates rose to 6.75%, the highest since July, up 7 bps in a day and 33 bps over 10 days, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Rates are now 46 bps above April lows after rebounding from war-driven volatility that pushed them near 6.6% in March.

Mortgage News Daily’s Matthew Graham says bond markets are signaling pressure on policymakers to end the war or face further economic strain.

The move has lifted monthly payments by about $167 on a median-priced home, highlighting renewed pressure on housing affordability.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

US government bond yields are climbing again this morning (see Bloomberg table below).
Notably, this move is occurring despite falling oil prices.
More to come on this, including reports on some official investors trimming their holdings.
#economy #bonds #markets #bonds

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

NVIDIA’s market cap is nearly $1 trillion higher than the entire German stock market and the entire Italian stock market…
Combined.