Martin Walker

Trade the imbalance & harmony will prevail!

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

This is why you should always use a well placed Stop Loss, risking 1% or less and never move them either. Just accept it when they get hit. Come on you all know who you are ;-).

[Steven Goldstein @AlphaMind101]

The human brain hates being wrong.

It hates it to such a degree, that it is willing to compromise your chances of success, just to avoid you being wrong

When you’re wrong (meaningfully wrong) you’ll often feel it viscerally, from the pit of your stomach through your arms, legs and across your chest. (Test it out).

And when you are wrong, you don’t just accept it, you’ll fight it, often in the face of overwhelming evidence.

Now this becomes a big problem for people involved in trading because their being wrong is shown in cold hard numbers (losses). Not an issue analysts have to contend l, when they’re wrong, they reframe it as a ‘revision’, but that’s not a luxury traders have.

Traders participate in an occupation where being wrong is part of everyday life. So this becomes a big problem if they hope to succeed. Because this aspect can control their behaviour.

Often it’s not the actual loss, but what it signifies ‘being wrong’, that is the biggest challenge. For many, it’s existential.

This is what you are fighting against in this job. This is your number one fight.

Its not just as simple as admitting your wrong, its far more complex.

You’ll subjugate your decision and compromise your process to avoid the danger of being wrong. You’ll put on trades that other people suggest, without any knowledge of the trade, because you’ll make the mistake of thinking they are right.

You’ll doubt yourself at the moment of placing a trade that fits your system, or was the the result of your analysis, because your brain at the moment of action will say ‘but what if you’re wrong’.

And when you are wrong, things will only get worse, you’ll beat yourself up, shut yourself down, reprimand yourself and remonstrate with yourself. Something you wouldn’t do to anyone else, but you’ll do to yourself. - Which just undermines you on your next set of trades.

This is the point of having the sort of Mantras I mentioned over the past couple of days. -Next 1000 Trades, and Love Your Losses.

The purpose of these is to remind yourself that no one decision, or action matters nearly as much your brain will lead you to believe, and that without ‘losses’ or acceptance of the random nature of trading where you’ll be wrong often, you’ll never have the wins or the success you desire.

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

@PeterLBrandt 1% Max but probs 0.5%

[Steven Goldstein @AlphaMind101]

Yes 👇

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

Read & Learn, I always say learning to trade is really Self-Development:

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

ADVICE FROM A HALF-CENTURY FUTURES MARKET TRADER
Is your desire to trade futures for a living? Here are XX things you must understand to make it
1 of 23
Thread to follow ⬇️⬇️🧵🧵

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

@AlphaMind101 Well called out @AlphaMind101

[SupraQuant - Super AI Trading Bot @supraquant]

A good thread on the late, great, and much missed Dr. David Paul. Another veteran turned trader. Knew him for about 15 years: fantastic company in any personal or professional capacity.

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

@FXTraderPaul @Meetup Have a look at these Paul: https://t.co/jmFam1gdDs

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

Well worth the slightly longer read - be ind to yourself rather than self-destructive in your trading and remember it is a matter of probabilities with an edge - so keep going! Thanks @AlphaMind101

[Steven Goldstein @AlphaMind101]

A slightly longer post on Self-Compassion in Trading. If you don’t think this applies to you, don’t read on. But if you want to understand one of the most vital and powerful positive forces that can turn your fortunes around...then read-on!

Self-Compassion in trading is a topic I discuss extensively in 📚‘Mastering the Mental Game of Trading’. It is one of those incredible soft skills that can make a huge difference.

Self-compassion involves treating yourself with kindness, being non-judgmental, and giving yourself a break, especially during challenging times.

Let me illuminate this with a brief story.

A few years ago, I was collaborating with a highly successful Portfolio Manager at a large fund. Despite his success, he had been engaging in a bout of self-flagellation during and after a very challenging period.

Self-flagellation is the act of inflicting pain or punishment on yourself as a form of penance for falling short of your expected standards. - You’ll probably recognize that you might do this from time to time.

In trading, self-flagellation typically takes the form of turning-in on yourself mentally, psychology beating yourself up, berating yourself. Your internal chatter about yourself and your actions turn increasingly negative and dark.

Through our coaching sessions, the PM had managed to address these destructive patterns which initially led to a positive shift in his performance. By the end of the year, he had turned a significant drawdown to a profit of around $30 million or about 4% return.

With a couple of months left of what had been a traumatic year for him, he decided to close his trading for the year, rather than risk slipping backwards.
However, I felt this decision suggested he was now not backing himself. A decision in part triggered by the constant drumbeat in his head of self-criticism that the year’s struggles had switched on.

There was of course no reason for this. You don’t achieve the level he had (over 3 decades) without being extraordinarily good at what you do, and his style of trading implied that there was a high probability that each month he would typically grind out a return of 3/4 to 1%. Which in his case was about $6 to $8 millions a month. Sure, he might lose, but it was the lower probability outcome.

However, when your mindset is negatively skewed, you start to see likely failure, even where success is most probable. The term ‘catastrophizing’ describes a mindset where the mind creates a cascade of negativity which then seems to be reality.

When you catastrophize, you become absent to the true picture and present to a false, yet somehow reassuring negative one. This, then starts to drive your choices and sets your path. – This is what I felt he was doing. and this was possibly driving his decisions to ‘pull up the drawbridge for the rest of the year’.

Maybe from a financial perspective that seemed like a good idea. He could finish with a modest positive return and satisfy himself that he had eked an OK performance in a difficult year. But what about next year? That negative mindset he would have created for himself wasn’t going anywhere. Sure, there might have been a reset at year end, but the first setback would probably bring that negativity back, and thus the next year would then be affected. - A negative (or fixed) mindset once set can become pervasive.

As his coach, and as an ex-trader myself, I understood his desire to bring an early close to the year. But I also felt I should challenge him to reconsider. I reminded him about his exceptional past performance over many years, and how he would probably make money in most months ‘if present’. - I worked on rebalancing his perspective. I wanted him to be compassionate to himself, rather than persist with his false negative perceptions of himself.

By fostering self-compassion and getting him to see his situation objectively, rather than through a sunjective and negative lens, he came around to the idea of keeping his year going.

He finished the year with an addition 4.5% return earned in the last 2 months of the year, taking his full year return to over $60 mio . The following year, his mindset started off positively and he excelled, showcasing the power of a positive mindset and producing one of this best ever years.

Self-compassion is a vital skill in trading. It entails supporting yourself in a job where thr market is always trying to foster negative self-perceptions on you. For the others in the market to win, they need you to lose. – For you to win you need to gight back. – This doesn’t just mean gettign your market calls right, but getting yourself in the best way it can be too. – Self-compassion is a skill that aids you in achieving that.

As an aside, working with a coach can be instrumental in helping you shift perspectives and fostering resilience in the face of the market complexities and challenges.

To delve deeper into self-compassion in trading, you can explore ‘Mastering the Mental Game of Trading’ available at https://t.co/qgH2nVF36z
#trading #markets #investing #HighPerformance

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

We can only really improve by post trade analysis - did you follow your process? Read on …

[Tom Dante @Trader_Dante]

Saturdays are for reviewing the week that was.

Remember: Curiosity is the basis for improvement.

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

@FXTraderPaul Awesome turnaround @FxTraderPaul! As you said you like scaring the bejesus out of yourself now and again!

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

This likely applies to a lot of high performance activities and most definitely Trading the financial markets:
#tradingpsycology

[Dylan Jardon 🌈 @DylanJardon]

"Perfection is impossible.

In the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches.

But what percentage of points did I win?

54%

In other words, even top ranked tennis players win barely more than half the points they play.

When you lose ever second point on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot.

You teach yourself to think:
'Okay, I double faulted...it's only a point.'
'Okay, I came to the net and I got passed again...it's only a point.'

Even a great shot, an overhead backhand smash that ends up on ESPN's top 10 playlist – that too is just a point.

Here's why I'm telling you this.

When you're playing a point, it has to be the most important thing in the world. And it is.

But when it's behind you, it's behind you.

This mindset is crucial – because it frees you to fully commit to the next point with intensity, clarity, and focus."

–@rogerfederer

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

Here is Part 2:

[Tom Dante @Trader_Dante]

22 years trading.

Here are some of the most important things I've learnt (Part 2/2):

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

Read and learn, nice summary Tom:

[Tom Dante @Trader_Dante]

22 years trading.

Here are some of the most important things I've learnt (Part 1/2):

[Steven Goldstein @AlphaMind101]

A Drawdown is something every trader fears. But why don’t we talk about the opposite (the draw-up)? - I know we don’t have a word such as a draw-up, yet that’s what every trader wants.

Reality is, one is something we dread and try to avoid all costs, the other is one we fear will dissipate, so we allow fear to get in the way, and reduce the potential draw-up.

Your job of course is to create draw-ups and limit drawdowns, not to eliminate them. Drawdowns have to happen, they have to have a place in your trading paradoxically, as without them, the draw-ups will never happen.

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

@elonmuskADO No

[Tom Dante @Trader_Dante]

As an interesting aside to this story, one day this incredible ES scalper suddenly steamed into the risk managers office and asked for limits in 6B for a position trade.

The risk manager, somewhat confounded that a scalper in the ES suddenly wanted to position trade the GBP, asked him what was going on.

To which the trader replied: “I want to take a long term position in it because the fundamentals point to a big move and I want to be on it.”

This puzzled the risk manager even more because this trader made a point of ignoring all the news when he traded.

But of course he was their star performer, so they gave him the limits and he piled in.

We all talked amongst ourselves on the floor…and we kept an eye on the price, knowing the biggest trader at the firm had gone balls deep.

And we all watched it move more and more against him for days until eventually he capitulated and closed it all.

He seemed to accept that defeat graciously and as far as I know, never touched the GBP again.

But there was my next lesson.

If you have an edge that works in a market you know, don’t fuck about trying to do something different. 😉

[Tom Dante @Trader_Dante]

Knowing I’m a trader, friends and family often ask me: “Where do you think the market is going over the next few weeks or months?”

And I always tell them “Your guess is as good as mine”.

To which they invariably respond, “…but you do this for a living!”

To which I have to reply: “I don’t make money on my guesswork, I make money on managing the outcome of my guesswork.”

And that is usually the end of the conversation.

[SupraQuant - Super AI Trading Bot @supraquant]

If you’re attending the London Trader Show this Friday then I can heartily recommend attending Steven’s presentation. It will make for a great day.

I was fortunate to be #31 on their @AlphaMind101 podcast; and am currently enjoying Steven’s book - which is rightly receiving rave reviews. Well worth a read.

#londontradershow @investlondon

[Martin Walker @FibForexMaster]

Great trading wisdom derived from years of trading experience. Point 15: I would reduce to 1% but that’s just my view! Read on:

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Anyone here to learn??
Things I have learned about trading (market speculation) in the past half century (I made my first futures market trade 50 years ago)
1. Blowing out accounts is easy - I blew up at least three times in the early years
2. I really have no clue what a given market is going to do even though I might be convinced I actually do know
3. Entering trades is really an unimportant part of trading. What I do with the trades I enter determine my fate. Novice traders place WAY too much importance on trade entry.
4. I've never developed a taste for humble pie despite partaking in many feasts
5. It is actually easy making money in the markets -- the real challenge is keeping it
6. Traders who claim they walk on water must be avoided at all costs
7. Rate-of-return is a meaningless performance measure designed to fool aspiring traders
8. The Sharpe ratio is a meaningless performance measure designed to provide cover for family offices
9. Most successful traders I've met over the years would agree that it takes 3 to 5 years to develop the skills necessary to consistently be profitable
10. The vast majority of novice/aspiring market speculators run out of money before they develop the skills to succeed
11. A very tiny proportion of wannabe market speculators (maybe 1%) hit it big right away and never blow up
12. Most market participants who make it big right away (like with crypto) end up giving it all back
13. Whenever you hear "This time it's different," please know that this time it isn't different
14. The biggest obstacle to trading success is SELF. Our negative character traits seek to sabotage us at every turn. Vincit qui se vincit
15. Risking anything more than 3-4% of trading capital on each futures market trade is a guaranteed recipe for eventual failure
16. Pyramiding based on unrealized profits is a snake that wants to bite you
17. The largest drawdowns belong to traders obsessed with picking bottoms and tops
18. If any young gun on Twitter shows a picture of themselves with a Lambo or inside a private jet, unfollow them immediately because they are a fraud
Anyway that's all for now. Thank you for your time.

[SupraQuant - Super AI Trading Bot @supraquant]

The @TOGSTraders Trading Podcast No5 went live at lunchtime today. This week we looked at the 1st of the 4Ms of Trading: Markets. How did you choose the markets you trade? Are they really the best markets for you to trade? Do you truly understand them? https://t.co/zWHVBSmxoL