Fight intelligence

Data-driven UFC analytics | 15 years in data science | Model probs | Market edges | AI matchup analysis | Walk-forward tested | Market benchmarked | 100% FREE

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

Fight Intelligence is live.

Data-driven UFC analytics with pre-fight win probabilities, market edges, and AI-generated matchup analysis.

Walk-forward tested. Market benchmarked. Free to use.

https://t.co/RFLHUrA2yC

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

🥊 UFC Fight Night | Model Picks

BET = model side + current positive model-market edge

🔥 Padilla: 72.9% model vs 47.7% market (+25.3 pp)
🔥 Schultz: 61.7% vs 38.5% (+23.2 pp)
⬆️ Nzechukwu: 60.5% vs 44.6% (+15.8 pp)
⬆️ Hernandez: 71.0% vs 62.6% (+8.4 pp)
⬆️ Petrino: 65.4% vs 58.1% (+7.3 pp)
⬆️ de Ridder: 79.2% vs 75.6% (+3.6 pp)

Current market snapshot. Lines can still move before fight night.

#UFCVegas121

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

https://t.co/Vn9WPp7Z3M

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

🥊 UFC 330 | Model Recap

Rough night for the model.

Overall picks: 5/11 (Dern not scored)
Model bets: 2/5

✅ Donte Johnson
✅ Neil Magny
❌ Kaue Fernandes
❌ Vicente Luque
❌ Rafael Tobias
Not every card will be 100%. The misses stay public, just like the wins.

All predictions were published pre-fight.
#UFC330

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

🥊 UFC 330 | Model Picks

Green circle = model side
BET = model side + current positive model-market edge

Bets :
🔥 Luque
🔥 Tobias ⚠️ low data
⬆️ Fernandes
⬆️ Donte Johnson
⬆️ Magny

❤️ Dern : no model edge, just heart edge.

#UFC330

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

🥊 UFC 330 | Model Recap

Rough night for the model.

Overall picks: 5/11 (Dern not scored)
Model bets: 2/5

✅ Donte Johnson
✅ Neil Magny
❌ Kaue Fernandes
❌ Vicente Luque
❌ Rafael Tobias
Not every card will be 100%. The misses stay public, just like the wins.

All predictions were published pre-fight.
#UFC330

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

https://t.co/irdzUizPrW

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

@WalnutMMA Ruffy got completely steamrolled by Saint Denis. I can’t even imagine what would happen against Tsarukyan.

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

@HunterrrBets Same here 👊 My model has Fernandes at 58.9%

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

🥊 UFC 330 | Luque vs Gore

One of the biggest model-market gaps on the card:

📊 Luque: 76.1% model vs 46.6% market
💰 Odds: 2.07
📈 Edge: +29.5 pp

Luque’s volume, pressure and cleaner distance work give him the edge on the feet. Gore’s clearest path is through explosive moments, level changes and submission threats

Is the market too low on Luque, or is the model underestimating Gore’s explosiveness and submission threat?

#UFC330

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

🥊 UFC 330 | Model Picks

Model favorites across the 11 fights scored:

✅ Makhachev
✅ Johnson
✅ Abdul-Malik
✅ Ribovics
✅ Alvarez
✅ Fernandes
✅ Donte Johnson
✅ Luque
✅ Tobias
✅ Magny
✅ Orolbai
❤️ Dern : no model edge, just heart edge.

Full probabilities and market comparison on Fight Intelligence (100% Free) .

https://t.co/YKv62FbigD

#UFC330

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

🥊📊 UFC 330 | Model vs Market

Model higher than market:

⚠️ Tobias: 70.5% model vs 27.7% market (low data)
🔥 Luque: 76.1% vs 46.6%
⬆️ Magny: 63.9% vs 45.8%
⬆️ Fernandes: 58.9% vs 40.6%
⬆️ Johnson: 82.4% vs 67.6%

#UFC330

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

@TheRealCobiMMA I’m with you on Magny 👊 My model has him at 63.9% vs 45.8% market

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

@MMA_RAX I’m with you on the stay-away here. My model has Orolbai at 63.6% vs 82.6% market

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

🥊📊 UFC 330 | Model vs Early Market

Model higher than market:

⚠️ Tobias: 70.5% model vs 27.9% market (low data)
🔥 Luque: 76.1% vs 43.0%
⬆️ Fernandes: 58.9% vs 39.8%
⬆️ Johnson: 82.4% vs 65.2%
⬆️ Magny: 63.9% vs 48.9%
🟰 Ribovics: 79.5% vs 79.3%

Early lines only. Odds will keep moving throughout the week.
#UFC330

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

🥊📊 UFC 330 | Model vs Early Market

Early market higher than model:

⬇️ Abdul-Malik: 51.1% model vs 81.2% market
⬇️ Ochoa: 55.5% vs 76.3%
⬇️ Orolbai: 63.6% vs 83.6%
⬇️ Makhachev: 55.0% vs 74.7%
⬇️ Alvarez: 63.4% vs 70.0%

Same side, very different confidence.
#UFC330

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

https://t.co/GY9xIaakt4

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

✅ UFC Vegas 120 | Perfect card
6/6 correct winners on the fights covered by the model.
2/2 model bets also hit.

All predictions were published pre-fight.
#UFCVegas120

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

Fight Intelligence is live.

Data-driven UFC analytics with pre-fight win probabilities, market edges, and AI-generated matchup analysis.

Walk-forward tested. Market benchmarked. Free to use.

https://t.co/RFLHUrA2yC

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

Stop making that +283 look tempting, Ian.

#UFC #UFC330

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

@MMAJesus316 Nice one, Salkilld came through. That +550 ticket aged very well

[Fight intelligence @FightIntelMMA]

✅ UFC Vegas 120 | Perfect card
6/6 correct winners on the fights covered by the model.
2/2 model bets also hit.

All predictions were published pre-fight.
#UFCVegas120