Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸

Financial Advisor | +70,000 followers | Private Banking | Posts ≠ Financial Advice

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

Hi, I'm Edu. I write about investing, markets and personal finance from a European perspective.

Clear explanations, useful charts and long-term thinking.

Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[2/2] 💼 A larger economic share than any major investment boom in 200 years. AI is an estimate (2025–32).

A new era or excess?

Source: @BlakeMillardCFA
Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[1/2] 🔥 AI infrastructure spending is projected to average 3.6% of US GDP in coming years.

📊 Canals 0.66% | Railroads 2.24% | Electrification 0.5% | Highways 1.13% | Telecom 1.1% | AI 3.63%

Chart: Stijn van Nieuwerburgh.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[2/2] 💡 A spread is the extra yield demanded for lending to the weakest borrowers. A rise signals greater perceived risk in that debt.

Do you watch credit before stocks?

Source: @ConnorJBates_
Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[1/2] 🚨 US CCC debt spreads reach 1,045 basis points, their highest since 2023.

📊 The chart compares CCC spreads with high-yield spreads since 1994.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[2/2] ⚡ The ratio is back at its average (0.12). This describes relative positioning; it does not predict future performance.

Source: @ConnorJBates_
Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[1/2] 🔴 AI beneficiaries are down 24.87% versus the rest of the market from their peak.

📉 GSTMTAIP / SPXXAI: high of 0.15 on 22 June 2026, average 0.12, low of 0.10 on 17 December 2025.

Goldman Sachs trading desk.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[2/2] 💡 Each dollar of expected earnings costs slightly less today than the average in recent years. This describes valuations; it does not predict the future.

Source: @FactSet
Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[1/2] 🟢 The S&P 500 forward P/E is 19.0 (expected earnings over the next 12 months).

📊 Below both its 5-year average (19.8) and its 10-year average (19.1).

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[2/2] 💡 When rates rise, existing bonds fall in price. Which of these maturities do you follow?

Chart: Bloomberg.

Source: @GlobalMktObserv
Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[1/2] 🔥 US Treasury yields are about 2 percentage points above their six-year averages.

📊 2-year: 4.80% (average 2.88%)
5-year: 4.92% (2.91%)
10-year: 5.10% (3.13%)
30-year: 5.42% (3.52%)

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[2/2] 💡 A bank estimate, not sales data: it could change again.

Do you trust the forecast from months ago or this week’s more?

Source: @Mayhem4Markets
Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[1/2] 🔴 Morgan Stanley cuts its $AMD GPU demand forecast by 43.3%.

📊 From 14.1 to 8.0 million cumulative units over 2026–2030 (-5.9 million). Revised 14 October 2026. Chart: Morgan Stanley.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[2/2] 💡 More debt and higher rates drive up costs. The 2026 figure is a Peter G. Peterson Foundation estimate.

Chart: Bloomberg.

Source: @GlobalMktObserv
Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[1/2] 🚨 US net debt interest hits a record $1.05 trillion in fiscal 2026, up 8% from $970 billion in fiscal 2025.

📊 At 3.2% of GDP, it exceeds the 1991 record.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[2/2] 💡 Only financial institutions designated by Japan’s Ministry of Finance are covered. This is a flow, not a sign the trend will continue.

Chart: Financial Times.

Source: @KobeissiLetter
Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

[1/2] 🚨 Japanese banks sold $16 billion in foreign bonds in September, their largest monthly sale since February.

📉 The 9th consecutive month of sales: the longest streak since 2022.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

⚡ The sell-off has been uneven: from −10% to −66%.

🎯 Do you know how much of your portfolio is in chips?

https://t.co/jvBczaRmfi via Investing Visuals.
Source: @InvestingVisual
Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

🔴 Semiconductor declines from their 52-week highs:

NVIDIA −10% | TSMC −15% | ASML −17% | AMD −19% | Micron −28% | Broadcom −32%

📉 Hardest hit: Coherent −45%, IREN −65% and Applied Optoelectronics −66%.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

FRED series FYOIGDA188S.
Source: @KoyfinCharts
Educational content, not personalised investment advice.

[Edu Estallo - Financial Advisor 🇪🇸🇺🇸 @Finance_WithEdu]

💸 The US spent 3.15% of GDP on debt interest last fiscal year.

🔴 The highest level since the 1990s.

📈 For comparison: 2.37% in fiscal 2023 and 3.00% in fiscal 2024.

⚡ When interest rates rise, debt costs more too.