First Crown Research🇺🇸

nano cap, distressed, hong kong, arb unwinds

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

@eriksen_tim i wrote this a long time ago lol: https://t.co/lydIrHQ2MH

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

$STAA Short Squeeze Incoming?

The short thesis was built around collapsing fundamentals, slowing growth, deteriorating margins and the collapse of ICL sales in China. After today’s earnings, that thesis looks materially weaker and China trends now appear to be reaccelerating, while many shorts are sitting on losses approaching ~100% in barely 2 months.

Now they have to decide:

Do they continue pressing the short all the way back toward ~$50+ levels where the stock traded a couple of years ago when the outlook was objectively worse?

Or do they start covering?

The problem is this trade is starting to resemble Hotel California:

“You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.”

I believe the real tradable float is probably below ~25M shares, maybe materially lower.

Here’s how I get there:

Broadwood owns ~15.4M shares and already refused to sell at $31.
Yunqi owns ~3.2M shares and blocked the deal too.
Point72 just established a ~2.6M share position.
Madison Ave just bought/owns ~2.85M shares.

Together these four entities alone control ~24M shares, nearly ~48% of the company.

I would not expect any of them to be meaningful sellers anywhere near current prices. And there are probably several more strong hands not included in this calculation.

Against that backdrop, ~6.7M shares remain short, roughly ~27% of float, with approximately ~12 days to cover.

That is an extremely crowded short against a highly concentrated shareholder base with very limited natural liquidity.

If shorts begin competing for exits simultaneously, the move higher could become extremely violent.

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

Solid timing.... Short Interest 28% of Float $STAA

https://t.co/UHoYvmwIB2

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

Point72 joining the party: https://t.co/kJeNNuG8y5

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

$STAA https://t.co/WlHnAycip7

[Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板 @BaldingsWorld]

I had a couple people ask me what I consider a win: nothing. I consider it a win if nothing happens between Xi and Trump and no deals are struck. Follow me.

As the great international relations scholar Seinfeld noted, anyone can make a deal, holding the deal is the hard part. Well we know that there is no trade deal with China worth striking. It's pointless. Why waste the time?

Then, the United States and US supply chains of all kinds are making great progress to get out of China. Business needs certainty that we aren't going to try and be friends with China again but they can move production. This is a big long project, not one that will be finished even before Trump leaves office. Don't open the door to doubt but give them a reason to keep moving US linked trade and supply chains.

The short version is I am much happier continuing to fight than trying to place nice for something we both is know worthless.

All this said I fully expect some deals to be announced, so to me the key is what deals are announced. The smaller the narrower the better. Boeing sells some planes, shrug not that big a deal, we lower tariffs on t-shirts, shrug.

I am much happier with no deal rather than a deal just to announce a deal. Let's look at the deals that are announced and see what that tells us

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: A UK immigration officer has been found guilty of working for China

Chi Leung "Peter" Wai, 38, used his access to the main immigration database to track Hong Kong dissidents based in the UK

[Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ @FreightAlley]

Anyone that believes consumers would get skidish after $5/gas prices should look at DoorDash and Uber Eats reports.

These businesses exist because of consumer disposable income. If the consumer was going to be crushed by higher gas prices, we would see it in food and grocery delivery.

The average consumer spends $130 per month on food delivery and $300 per month on grocery, with 30-50% of the average ticket in mark up and fees.

$60-70/month in higher gas prices is not going to scare off consumers.

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

$CLSDQ

https://t.co/7iDJkM3IQw

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

$STAA https://t.co/WlHnAycip7

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

Markets blowing up. As usual lots of interesting stuff. Will just drop a cpl notes. I expect a few more days of pain before TACO big time, this isn’t a firmly held view but it’s unlikely Trump can just sit and endure $110 oil for more than a week.

In any case I think these prob work regardless…

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

The data center buildout has allowed Loudoun County to lower property tax rates by 38% since 2010, translating to average savings of about $3,400 per year for homeowners.

[Kakashii @kakashiii111]

CoreWeave moved their ER from the usual mid-month slot to Feb 26, the day after Nvidia’s earnings today.

What’s the arrangement between Intrator and Jensen?

The coordination here is too perfect to be a coincidence.

[boaz weinstein @boazweinstein]

The way the wheels are coming off the car in the equities of private credit managers, (and the investors who hold them - look at LNC today), public credit looks absurdly rich.

This might surprise, but Saba Capital is long stock in BX, ARES, APOL, and also OWL! We sold down a lot of CDX HY at the same time.

Something has to give… see below from my sage partner Kieran.

[savage daughter @DonnaPrissyrn1]

West Virginia’s coal fired power plants are saving the eastern electric grid this morning

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

-193.5K for CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 🤷‍♂️ stay safe out there everyone #UNG

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

AI glasses can now recognize anyone, anywhere.

A Dutch journalist just tested a pair of AI-powered glasses that can instantly identify strangers on the street.

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

first time ever seeing a single word under Purpose of Transaction 🤣

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

$NBY absolutely insane at $20. Never would've held for the ride up even without the honeymoon

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

On my honeymoon in Hawaii right now so probably shouldnt be looking at this but wow didnt expect $4.20 at all $NBY

[Edward Dowd @DowdEdward]

Markets suddenly not rewarding AI capex acceleration. This is a change. $ORCL

[First Crown Research🇺🇸 @First_Crown]

@Biohazard3737 Congrats on your success and may many years follow!