Fishtown Capital

Mostly finance nerd, plus Tech/Med Device space

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@iBladesi It’s amazing the index has gone up so much.. added $TSLA at the top etc

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@fivepointscap Agree somewhat, but we have $AAPL at 35x, Google near a triple from last year, stocks like $Dell and $ARW doubling. Its frothy out there!

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@fivepointscap I sold nearly all my tech.. SpaceX going to be a giant liquidity sink into an already overextended market.. although it got a lot LESS overextended today.

Long term I agree.

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

$META Oy Vey. When $GOOG did this, it was after the stock went from $150->near $400 in a year. Fine.

$META is down 15% YoY and has the least obvious ROI from this IMO.

[MarketNewsFeed @MarketNews_Feed]

$META - *META WEIGHS RAISING TENS OF BILLIONS IN NEW SHARE SALE: FT ...

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@WaitCapital Absolutely absurd moves for a company that size

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

I guess we all forgot that $MSFT $GOOG and $AMZN are all building their own chips?

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@KeningYe26924 @Fiserv I haven't heard/read it yet, they prioritizing debt reduction this year?

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@TihoBrkan AI, homebuilders, chemicals.. and their track record with major acquisitions outside insurance is already bad

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@StoneHillWealth @CapitalObserver Sorry for your 5000 bps underperformance over the past few years.

It's not a short. But they should be trying to shrink the company IMO and not grow and already unmanagable conglomerate with no corporate HQ oversight.

Stupid and they continue to plow down the same path.

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@StoneHillWealth @CapitalObserver Buying GOOG at ATH's.. maybe be good still.. but.

I don't see the wisdom is buying more businesses, especially when they're complex ones, when the current businesses you own are run poorly.

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@StoneHillWealth @CapitalObserver Why not buy $GOOG and some home builders then?

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@CapitalObserver Agreed. This market's been pretty wild with narratives taking hold and then evaporating (search is dead, software is dead.. Zuck is a bad CEO.. )

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

$MSFT Boy, this call is working out fast.

$META is next I think. Folks worried about cost discipline, but I think Zuck is running one of the tightest ships in tech. I think the first sign of CapEx flattening or declining and it's +15-20%.

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

$MSFT Pentagon awards Microsoft $9.7 billion deal in bid to cut costs, end license sprawl
$META launching subscriptions, CFRA says could change narrative

Both of these companies are solid buys and performing well. Both huge AI winners.

Narrative might change quick on both.

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@CapitalObserver He explained it well, too. They're building valuable assets. If it turns out they have more capacity than needed, they can sell it at a big profit.

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

$MSFT Pentagon awards Microsoft $9.7 billion deal in bid to cut costs, end license sprawl
$META launching subscriptions, CFRA says could change narrative

Both of these companies are solid buys and performing well. Both huge AI winners.

Narrative might change quick on both.

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

- 10 years is plenty of time. Come on.
- I said nothing about Berkshire's stock price. Only the moves they've made. Which have mostly been dumb.
$KHC, Pilot, the Duracell trade, Lubrizol has been run like crap, BNSF is the worst performing railroad, even PCC was overpaid for and has also not been run well. Their equity investing has been a disaster.

They deserve no premium. They deserve a discount.

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

It was a 6-7 bagger for them. Nasdaq is a 3 bagger in the same timeframe. They lit $15 billion on fire with Pilot. $15 billion OXY underperformed the market by 80%, even after Iran it's still barely at breakeven. And again, holding $200-300+ billion in cash while the market goes up 50%.

I've run the numbers versus just putting the money into the S&P500 for them. Even with Apple, the results are bad.

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

Their equity book has downside (like the rest of the market) and insurance-underwriting has risk. We saw a negative reaction to YoY declines in Q1, I don't see a lot of upside if that continues.

Disagree that their cash should have a premium. They've been the dumb money in almost everything they've touched in the last decade and have held a ton of cash through a huge rally. It should have a discount IMO.

[Fishtown Capital @FishtownCap]

@BespokeIntel @DevonaL20276 @dirsatishshukla You're replying to a spam bot. Who is running this account?