🚨 High Impact News Today
USD CPI (1:30 PM).
Inflation expected to rise, making this the key market mover today. A higher-than-forecast CPI could strengthen USD.
Weekly Outlook
Low-impact week overall, with major focus on Thursday and Friday.
Expect slower movement early in the week, with volatility increasing toward Thursday and Friday.
USD CPI came in hotter than forecast .
• Core CPI m/m: 0.4% vs 0.3%.
• CPI y/y: 3.8% vs 3.7%.
Inflation remains elevated, which supports a stronger USD as markets may expect the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
Bias: USD Bullish
USDCAD Outlook
USDCAD remains bearish after rejecting the previous supply zone. Sellers still control structure.
This aligns with US02Y weakness, signaling the market is pricing a more dovish Fed, keeping USD pressured.
��� Bias: Sell rallies
🎯 Target: 1.3484 support
Fed Expectation (US02Y)
US 2Y yield remains bearish, meaning the market is still leaning toward future Fed cuts.
Price bounced from 3.67% but is rejecting around 3.79% resistance.
✅ Bias: Dovish Fed expectation stays valid unless US02Y breaks above 3.85%.
EURUSD Market Outlook
On the 4H timeframe, price is currently rejecting the 1.18342 swing zone, suggesting a possible bearish reversal. However, sellers are not fully in control yet.
Market Outlook - Apr 21
USD Retail Sales ( 1:30pm )
Expect a big beat because Core & Retail Sales forecast are much stronger than previous.
If data comes out higher than forecast - USD Strengthen.
🚨 Trump threatens Iran with “civilization destruction” if Iran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline.
Hormuz is a key global oil chokepoint — any escalation could spike oil prices and drive risk-off sentiment.
#Oil#Forex#Geopolitics#Iran
🛢 Brent Oil just hit $144 per barrel in the physical market — record level.
This signals real supply stress, not just futures speculation.
Inflation risk rising again.
Stocks are rising as crude oil falls below $90 per barrel, easing inflation fears and improving investor sentiment.
Lower energy costs reduce pressure on businesses and consumers, which supports economic outlook and boosts equities. 📈
DXY pulling back into 98.70 support after rejecting the 99.70 swing high. Holding this level keeps the dollar structure bullish, which could pressure EURUSD & GBPUSD while supporting USDJPY / USDCAD. A break below 98.67 would signal weakening dollar momentum.