FocusedPlatypus

Super duper focused. Not financial advice.

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@EquityBrian Not to mention there's a usd$75/$150m break fee depending on current stage of deal

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@EquityBrian Getting hard to ignore at these levels. Still waiting on SAMR approval which a full 6mo review concludes in Aug so not far. Metiuan has been under antimonopoly watch but this shouldnt raise any flags and both parties seem confident given structure. What are we missing?

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@ShmuelLon @terribadrob i understand it's a $20m exit facility where $10m to pay out common. if unused/undrawn, no impact. or if fully drawn, leftover cash goes back to company. formula in docs doesnt change payout

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@ShmuelLon @terribadrob i think youre $GOCO analysis is right. and could have initially traded higher due to debt holders having to waive their right to any common distribution (no double dipping). where some thought it skewed the math but denominator remains the same (A+B)

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@APompliano Does this total include allocating convertible proceeds yet? or has convertible proceeds not been utilized yet?

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@SPACMAN17 I'm thinking similar possibilities. imo $COMM remainco conservatively $13/sh + cash >$8sh. Think remainco could rerate higher on clean structure. Feels like a free roll sub-$13 unless I'm missing something

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@CallsPuts1 it's essentially a put option on CORZ with future payouts if CORZ fair market value is below a threshold on those dates. It was dist to bankruptcy holders. @KevinLMak also covered it pretty well.

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@valwithcatalyst @DaRelWillTurner @BmtxInc Both parties have zero incentive to answer us/clarify what is due to warrant holders, especially given the magnitude of payout. I've been unsuccessful in connecting with anyone so far, but... we are due what we are due. Will require proper exercising.

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@valwithcatalyst @BmtxInc $BMTX vote passed. With this closing presumably very soon, I think warrant payout is towards higher end of the 75-85c range?

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

I'm getting a similar number to you. Assume they drag their feet to the Jan 31, 2025 deadline still getting 78c. there is a 3 month extension built in, but only for very specific reasons. And I think you can confirm the math by referencing how they calculate "fair value" of warrant liabilities. ps. this isnt my focus area either, just my 2c.

"Among the key inputs and assumptions used in the pricing formula at September 30, 2024 were the following: a term of 1.27 years; volatility of 52%; a dividend yield of zero; an underlying stock price of $3.40; a risk free interest rate of 3.86%; and a closing price of the public warrants of $0.03 per share."

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@TheOneLanceB How you prioritize your morning bandwidth

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

Neutral/slight positive imo. Going from mid teens growth to combinedco of MSD/HSD this year? EBITDA margins maybe the same (im backing implied EBITDA out using the 2.5x expected net leverage). net cost synergies of only $20m. What multiple do you slap on that? wouldnt be a prem to AVAV today imo.

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@JonahLupton i like it, just remember mgmt doesn't have great visibility into 2025+ / is currently benefiting from conflict. i prefer to look at it as if the higher ebitda is a one-time bump. $500m or +$4/sh = $23. Anything say 25+ I think is pricing higher 2025 rates. unknown but possible

[FocusedPlatypus @FocusedPlatypus]

@CuiBonoCapital @InvestSpecial @sharkbiotech agree but i think can be interesting post-raise as long as you consider / re-rate stock post dilution + IRR% delay + extra cash burn. could be closer to 7-8s before I like it though