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Marcus Smart over 18.5 PRA
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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysisโคต๏ธ
Marcus Smart is in a very nice spot/situation here to start the playoffs for the Lakers. We know Luka and Reaves are both out, this is huge for Smart and his offensive role.
When everyone is healthy, he is mostly sitting on the wing or in the corner and has a very low usage being just a hustle guy. However without the 2 best offensive players for LAL this season, Marcus is tasked with more on-ball reps making plays for teammates and looking to score more.
On the season when playing next to the big 3, he had just a very low 11.4 usage and averaged only 13.7 PRA per 34 minutes. However with Luka and Reaves off the court, Smart sees a big boost to a 20.5 USG. Even when next to LeBron in this sample he still has a nice 19.6 Usage and averages 22.7 PRA per 34 mins.
Taking off Knecht who also hasn't been in the rotation as a higher usage player, Smart now averages 23.7 PRA per 34 minutes. I expect very good playing time for him in game 1 of the playoffs given his experience and the lack of guards the Lakers can trust in this situation.
Smart came back from injury and played the final 2 games of the regular season getting 18 and 26 minutes in massive blowouts. In that final game on Sunday, Marcus played about 17 1st half minutes which would extrapolate to those mid 30's mins for a full game that I'm expecting.
He notably produced well in those 2 games back, going for 18 PRA in only 18 mins and 17 PRA in 26 mins while shooting 1/7 on FG's.
In 3 games this season with LeBron in and both Luka+Reaves out, Smart averaged 20.7 PRA in just 23 mins but should see around mid 30's mins tonight.
Just a great value and the matchup is fine too. Coach Udoka typically lives with non-elite shooters getting plenty of open looks on the perimeter. We could see them load up on LeBron which would help Smart further as a secondary scorer/playmaker.
Marcus is no stranger to the playoffs and has risen in big moments producing well in many series for BOS even while playing next to high usage players. His role for this series behind only LeBron as a star should be even better than his Celtics playoffs days.
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