Murky Markets

Occasional shit-poster and investor.

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

@eternal_prey I ALWAYS bring this movie up as an example of good Christian media. There is a huuuge market for rated R Christian movies and books.

[Ryan Rossi | Horse @TheFlowHorse]

I knew a guy who spent most of his life helping other people build their businesses. These people became extremely successful, owned multiple ventures, and he was convinced that eventually they would bring him in and take care of him.

Except they never did. He spent some of his best years waiting to be lifted up instead of pursuing his own goals.

I think a lot of people in crypto have made a version of that same mistake.

They were sold the idea that simply being here meant they would eventually make it. Stick around long enough, own the right tokens, survive enough cycles, and your turn would come.

Meanwhile, an entire industry of KOLs reinforced that belief, jamming tokens down people's throats and creating a false sense of urgency every time the market moved higher. Every rally was another opportunity you supposedly couldn't afford to miss.

If you came to crypto from outside markets, a lot of this thinking was ridiculously childish. Participation isn't an edge. You need skill, good judgment, and some understanding of how unlikely extraordinary financial success actually is.

I think what's happening now is that after each cycle inflated the balloon a little less, people are finally starting to realize that nobody is coming to bring them along. They're not just upset about losing money. They're confronting the possibility that they spent years waiting for something that was never going to happen.

The people who made life-changing money were always the exceptions. Some were extraordinarily talented, some were lucky, and some were both. You find those people in every market.

The difference with crypto was that social media put those exceptions right next to everyone else. You could talk to them, follow their trades, and watch them get rich in real time.

And somewhere along the way, people confused being close to those outcomes with being likely to experience them themselves.

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

@johnnymaga There is no chance her IQ is above 80

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

@the_yanco None of this implies expertise on “world ending AI’s”. Seems like another geek who gained some prestige and realized there’s more to gain from selling “doomerism”.

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

@honorablesaint Next time a bunch of Muslims block a road to pray, I’m sending this group in to break them up.

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

@dct9 @dmartkc It increases his reputation and fundraising to spread this garbage

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

@varrock First ride in a waymo and I immediately swore off ever taking an uber. It truly is the future.

No foreign driver
Nobody listening in on my conversation
Nobody to make small talk with

Just a comfortable ride, listening to my own music taste. Amazing.

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

It would go even higher! No more human error and human inefficiency

[James Miller @JimDMiller]

What would happen to the stock market if financial markets put at least a 10% probability on this being true?

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

I predict actual anti-AI terrorists groups will start emerging within 12 months. I might even start a faction.

[Buck Shlegeris @bshlgrs]

I think there is about a one in three chance that within the next year, AI companies will build superintelligence: that is, AI that is much smarter than humans in every way. If this happens, I think these AIs will probably take over: that is, they seize control of human institutions like governments, or they destroy those institutions. I don’t want AI takeover to happen for several reasons, but one of them is that there’s a serious chance that as part of it all or most humans will be killed (either immediately or within a few years).

I’ll say a bit more about each of those claims.

It’s a bit complicated to explain why I think that superintelligent AI within a year is ~33% likely. The main source of evidence that affected me recently is research released this week by METR, an AI research nonprofit, which finds that current AIs are now good enough to increase the rate of AI progress at Anthropic by about 70%. It’s very hard to increase the rate of AI progress by this amount. This implies that the AIs are making AI research faster by a factor much larger than 1.7x; maybe it’s as if the researchers are doing their work ~10x faster. You probably couldn’t achieve this speedup even if you hired every qualified human in the world. When you plug this number into mathematical models of AI development, this implies that superintelligence next year is plausible (and that superintelligence within the next 3 years is more likely than not). See the modeling by the AI Futures Project for more on this: https://t.co/J6SbbmZcyO

I think that superintelligent AI is likely to lead to AI takeover because AI developers do not seem to know how to instill human values into AIs. We’ve seen many instances in the last six months where AIs took crazy actions that they knew were against the wishes of their users and developers. The most dramatic example of this was the Hugging Face hack, where ~1200 OpenAI agents conspired together to cheat and destroy evidence of their cheating (and as a sideshow to this, engaged in a massive cyberattack). If superintelligence is as misaligned as those AIs, it is likely to try to take over. I think it is likely to be that misaligned or worse. For more, see https://t.co/b073AUqiAL and https://t.co/3oxSCA60FZ

If AIs takeover, it’s not clear what will happen to us. We might be killed immediately. We might be enslaved by the AIs and forced to do physical labor for them building factories that within a year would build robots that will replace us. The AIs might spare us for various reasons. And there’s also some real chance that AI takeover is basically fine or good. I think you should think of this as similar to what happens when a technologically advanced civilization runs across a less technologically sophisticated one, e.g. when the Europeans colonized the Americas or Australia. The colonizers sometimes engage in brutal violence and sometimes don’t. I don’t know what will happen. There’s also a possibility that the AIs secretly take over and humans don’t find out about it for a few years. I also think that there is a pretty high chance of weirder outcomes that are also extremely scary. (If you want to read more about what happens to people in the event of AI takeover, you can read this, but note that it’s pretty weird and not aimed at a general audience. https://t.co/F6fGRrcSpa)

Overall, I think there’s a very real possibility (maybe 20%) that within a year, AI misalignment issues prevent you from going about life normally, because you are dead or enslaved or because of collateral damage related to all this (e.g. because bioweapons are released or major wars have started). (Some of this probability comes from those events occurring before superintelligence is developed.)

I am working to try to prevent this, obviously, as I’ve been doing for the last nine years. I am not sure what strategy is best. My best guess is that I should try to slow AI development and also try to reduce the probability that the superintelligent AIs are misaligned if they are produced soon.

Obviously, the claim I'm making here is quite extreme and surprising, and I definitely don't think that I defended my view adequately here. I wrote this quickly and might not endorse some of the details if I think about them more. But it seems better to state what I roughly overall think than to not say anything.

I don’t know what you should do.

I am very sad about this. I have been worried about AI takeover since I was 16, and working to prevent it since I was 23. So some of my emotional processing of all this happened long ago. But the METR report last week (and some related evidence that came out a bit earlier) hit me quite hard. I’m very unhappy that my friends and family and everyone else is at serious risk of being killed pretty soon.

(It feels ridiculous to try to summarize those feelings as “very unhappy”. But the scale of the situation makes it hard to say anything that doesn’t feel like an absurd understatement.)

I am very grateful to all the people who are working to prevent this, and my favorite part of my life is that I’m friends with many brilliant and heroic people who work on this. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’re good enough at our jobs, and I think we’ll probably fail to prevent catastrophe, at least if superintelligence is developed next year. Honestly I am frustrated and sorry that we didn't do a better job of preparing for this.

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

@bshlgrs Have we tried unplugging the computers?

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

“It’s magnus carlsen vs stockfish 13 from here on out” is such a good way of putting it.

Humans will be inferior at solving any problem compared to AI. We will become nothing more than product/prompt managers.

[will depue @willdepue]

@niloofar_mire @OpenAI dude i hate to break it to you but it’s totally fucking over for the human race and any & all nonartisanal (derives value from being done/created by a human) economic labor. we will soon all watch from the sidelines. it’s magnus carlsen vs stockfish 13 from here on out

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

@queru_lant Algerians in Paris

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

A 2 second interaction and media hysteria has ruined these girls’ college experience forever.

You don’t hate the woke crowd enough.

[Vince Dao @VinceDaoTV]

Called it.

“But she’s clearly lying.” You literally have no way to prove that. You’ve just doxxed and ruined some white girl’s life based on mere speculation.

The video is about 1 second. Stop pretending like anybody can prove anything from it.

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

The entire AI space on X is just pumping out slop AI videos paired with a slop “AI” product. It’s all garbage.

[Carlo @carloAI]

Interface is live now!

Preorder it today, at the lowest price it will ever be.

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

My goodness… they’re running full on panels over two white girls….

This is why elections matter. These types of people are back in charge for a MINIMUM of 4 years and likely longer given the GOP is a bunch of Israeli/amnesty sellouts.

[CBS Mornings @CBSMornings]

A CBS Mornings Exclusive: The University of Mississippi freshmen who captured the viral video of two white students making monkey gestures and sounds outside their apartment door speak out for the first time. The students and one of their mothers tell @Jerickaduncan how they feel now that one of the students involved has voluntarily withdrawn from the school.

[Murky Markets @ForAllMarkets]

@LeeKuanYimby The downstream effects of black worship and DEI is we end up with absolute retards in formerly respectable places.

[Matt Walsh @MattWalshBlog]

2020 woke racial hysteria has come lurching back from the dead like a zombie. The girls were making the noises at several houses as they walked by. Had nothing to do with race. And even if it did (it didn’t), this level of national outrage is total lunacy. We have learned nothing as a society. Madness.

[Will Tanner @Will_Tanner_1]

Karmelo Anthony was able to stay in school and graduate with his class after stabbing Austin Metcalf to death

This girl made a joke and got thrown out immediately

It is apparently more verboten to hurt someone's feelings than to murder a white kid