ForensicQuant

Builder. Wannabe Quant - Building @sgnldk in public. Family Office in the midwest. Costco Executive Member.

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

I wasn’t profitable in my trading journey until I started journaling and completing a Post Mortem on each trade. Without this ongoing habit, and the data, I was simply trading in the dark.

[SignalDeck @sgnldk]

The most common objection to journaling: I am already profitable without one. Here is an honest answer - what profit alone cannot prove, a 10 minute concentration test for your broker statement, and when skipping it is correct. https://t.co/eTkeCw2hzC

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

@zoominonimages 👋

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$AMT - Slammed past the historic line from Oct 2025, and into our MM PT

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$ZS - Approaching PT2

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

Friday SPY was down -0.52%, but money focused on:

Oil services: Crude bid hard ($USO +4.3%, $BNO +3.0%) and the money went past the producers into the equipment and offshore names: $OIH +5.4% (2.3x vol), $IEZ +5.4% (2.1x), $XES +4.7%. Single names backed it up: $OII +7.2% (3.1x), $TDW +8.1%, $SDRL +6.4% (2.0x), $HOS +8.1%, plus $REPX and $VIST on the E&P side.

Cybersecurity: $CRWD +8.3%, $ZS +7.3%, $NET +7.3%, $PANW +7.2%, $S +6.7%, $RBRK +6.6%, $TENB +6.2%, all on 1.3-2.1x volume, and the ETFs moved together ($WCBR +5.0%, $BUG +5.0%, $HACK +4.2%, $CIBR +3.2%).

Also note: staffing woke up ($RHI +21.7% on 4.7x, $KFRC +9.0%, $TBI +5.9%), and Brazil small caps saw 5.2x volume in $EWZS (+3.4%) with $EWZ/ $FLBR/ $ILF following.

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$ILF / $FLBR - Friday we saw high vol positioning ahead of Brazil's presidential runoff on Sunday, with $EWZS on 5.2x volume. However, Lula won and not Bolsonaro, and we're seeing that bet unwind premarket - ILF -15%, FLBR - 25%, & EWZS -35%.

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

@flank2 A simple backtest would prove none of the methods work at scale. That’s when it gets very real very quick. But no one ever does that work first

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

@TrendSpider Weren’t you posted fomo charts when it touched the 200 day? lol

[SignalDeck @sgnldk]

The VSA series teaches you to read the bar. A journal tells you which bars pay you. What to record on every VSA trade, one no-supply trade logged end to end, and what a simulated 49-trade journal showed. https://t.co/kCDNMzNQJz

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

@paulswaney3 All of this, to make less than the SPY

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

Full write-up: https://t.co/FmRj5aY1g5

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

We spent this release trying to break our own backtester. We found 17 problems, and the 5 worst all made strategies look better than they were, like stops filling at prices the market gapped through.

July Backtester v1.16 fixes every one. Some backtests will look worse. Good.

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

@KarelMercx My take a few days ago - https://t.co/L4GgllcLiX

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

Sugar ran from 13.3c in Feb to 21.3c in mid-Oct. Oil pulled Brazil's cane into ethanol, bad weather hit four crops at once, and funds flipped from -232k to +260k contracts.

Now it's going sideways on thin volume. 👇

https://t.co/L3H6p5i9P1

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

@mTraderNDX they could be doing a tiny fib or two...

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

@yanir_uliel I am sorry for your loss.

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$SPRB - Remembering when Shkreli was pumping this garbage in the 180.xx area on "trust me bro" vibes. One year later.

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

Anyone remember when $SPRB was above 200? I've been watching this slowly head towards 35.33 since October of last year.

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$SO - Yesterday's 1.6x surge complimented the overall 15% move from the bullish engulfing candle on Sept 29th, directly underneath the Dec 2025 line. The price action around that line is incredible.

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$DAKT - Back inside the range

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$DAKT - trading outside the distribution range towards the downside

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$GOVZ - That pullback on the 19th was fantastic

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$GOVZ - Very interesting price action going on here

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

While the SPY was down -1.18%, this was the rotation:

Homebuilders: $ITB (+5.4%, 1.1x), $XHB (+3.8%, 1.4x), with $HOV (+9.9%, 1.8x), $DFH (+12.2%, 1.3x) and $Z (+8.5%, 1.4x) underneath.

Retail: $XRT (+2.9%, 1.6x), $KSS (+11.8%, 2.1x), $RH (+9.5%, 2.0x), $LULU (+7.8%, 1.6x)

Transports: $IYT (+2.5%, 2.3x), $R (+10.5%, 2.2x) joined in. Waste haulers ($WCN +9.9%, 3.2x; $CWST +7.4%, 1.5x; $WM +4.1%, 1.3x) were a quieter defensive tell.

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$POOL - A strong 3.1x move on earnings. From the bullish engulfing candle on the 8th, to yesterday's high, it's seen a 29% move in price.