Jesse Felder "it's obvious to me that the market is pricing a future that is over the next years. It's clear that it's impossible to achieve what analysts are kind of pricing out over the next 2-3 years (.) analyst estimates are going to have to come down"https://t.co/YOLx9PnAn2
Malek : "when yields go up (.) growth stocks sell off (.) Higher yields lower a company's intrinsic value (.) the real skill being tested right now is not prediction, but noise filtration (.) noise filtration is the only alpha that is free on WS" : https://t.co/5292Z1UI3R
Bank of America’s research shows that elevated long-term earnings growth expectations have historically been associated with weaker subsequent equity returns, suggesting today’s exceptionally optimistic forecasts may leave the market vulnerable to disappointment.
Dean Baker : "The US has had two major bubbles (.) There are signs that we are in the midst of a third (.) it is possible to track the bubble, looking at (.) changes in their PE. This is what the AI Bubble Monitor will do on a weekly basis" : https://t.co/xeFcvEu0xT
When interest rates were close to zero (.) future earnings were discounted at relatively low rates. Today, investors have to balance high growth stories with rising bond yields. In a market valued for perfection, even a slight fracture may start to matter https://t.co/wlMvPNm8ot
A perfect example of why 'cleverness' isn't enough in investing. Reflecting on the book "When Genius Failed", Phil Rosen points out that : "they exposed themselves too much to leverage and they blew up" : https://t.co/1AgAOj9Uec
Malek:"The bond market (.) is telling you that the resolution is not coming (.) and demand higher yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield is the most important benchmark in global finance (.) Corporate debt is priced off of it. Equity valuation models use it https://t.co/mRgjyihGMX
"We don't read other people's opinions. We want to get the facts, and then think. You need to be critical and always thinking. You need to do the mental work (.) to hold an opinion. Neither (.) is smart enough to make the decisions with no time to think" : https://t.co/5JFteeqFQ1
Warren Buffett's words are enlightening : "To invest successfully (.) does not require a stratospheric IQ (.) insights, or inside information (.) but a (.) framework (.) and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework" : https://t.co/JbsEACtrx2
According to Hartnett, adding SpaceX, OpenAI and (.) pushes concentration "past the 48% peak that defined every major bubble of the past century (.) Markets that have reached that level (.) have eventually given a chunk of it back, sometimes violently" : https://t.co/pRmMWmSmhr
The best piece of advice I ever got came from my grandmother.
What other people think about you is none of your business.
It sounds simple, but it is genuinely hard to live by because we're social creatures and we want to be liked.
The moment you start caring about that less, you become your actual self.
And those other people you're so worried about are mostly thinking about themselves anyway.
So relax. Be yourself.
Simon Ree: To fund CAPEX, Google "priced the largest equity raise in US corporate history" at "just under $85B". So even the most profitable companies are passing "the hat", raising the question of "whether the cash flow can actually cover it" : https://t.co/bmWg7K7cs1
Simon Ree : Hyperscalers plunge "$725B (.) into AI infrastructure in 2026" while generating only "$35B" in revenue. About 20$ of spend for every 1$ of revenue. "Maybe it’s (.) the most important build-out of our lifetimes ? It can also be railway mania (."https://t.co/bmWg7K7cs1
Simon Ree : "The synchronized drop in stocks, gold, silver, and Bitcoin indicates that this was "not a (.) rush to safety, it’s deleveraging". Thus, safe havens stop acting as protection: "the diversification (.) is revealed (.) an illusion" : https://t.co/bmWg7K7cs1