FR

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

Have a drink, and make mf money 💵

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@elonmusk Pls stop your fearmongering, it’s obvious and laughable at this point

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@WSJ not going to lie, your Saturday business section has really fell off, just fyi

[Math Files @Math_files]

Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.

So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.

Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?

Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.

For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.

Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.

Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@elonmusk @grok What is white, Hispanic, black, Asian as a percentage of all corporate workers?

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@GOP Uhhh no, a couple of sheckles for the middle and lower class but a huge chunk for the rich. (Also the middle and lower class paid for the bill) 👍 the Republican way

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@SecScottBessent @SenWarren @SenAmyKlobuchar @JMilei You’ve lost it man, get a grip 😭 ppl are dumb but not this dumb lmao saw you speak a year ago, way off base now

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@profplum99 I looked at this recently as well but using M2, iwm is much better. My mind goes to possibly HFs/desks using IWM/spec flows as a risk on signal so the move to high vol/highdelta equities gets exacerbated by leveraged buying/selling high vol/low vol 🤷🏽‍♂️

[juicy j @therealjuicyj]

Don't let the algorithm control your life

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@unusual_whales Yeah cuz Vegas is lame af, no body tryna go there lol

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@DefiantLs You’re ‘taking in so much money’ from business and consumers due to the tariff tax that you might send people some of their own money back (although the money you’d send them will be less than what you took from them). He really thinks Americans are dumb af (they are)

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@SpencerHakimian How you know it’s bad, when even Fox News ain’t having it 🤣

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@biancoresearch Trump went to Wharton business college, the most prestigious business school in the world, he knows how economics work, yet he chooses to blatantly lie because he knows his followers don’t understand economics 101. That’s the most dangerous/worst type of person.

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@profplum99 I concur

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@AnnaEconomist What about inflation breakevens and swaps, or metal commodity price action? You can have higher inflation with lower growth, which is what the market is truly showing.

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

“Until you make the unconscious, conscious, it will rule your life and you will call it fate”

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@Kurrco Walked the walk 🤞🏽

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@elonmusk Elon Musk Is Now
X’s Biggest Promoter
of Anti-Immigrant
Conspiracies

https://t.co/x3xoDcJ8EH

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@KobeissiLetter @Kalshi These outputs are not real, these markets are being manipulated by deep pocketed indivudals seeking to influence the election and create a false sense of momentum for Trump.

https://t.co/6Rriw51uRm

[FR @FranciscoooRod]

@Not_the_Bee Low/middle class people be the biggest haters. They hate to see someone from their cohert move up