NHC UPDATE: Isaias now has sustained winds of 120 mph. Pressure 959 mb.
This will likely be the intensity peak., Shear will increase over the system this afternoon, and winds should be in the 90-100 mph range at the time of landfall tonight near Pensacola Beach.
Don't focus on the rating on the Saffir-Simpson scale, focus on impact.
*A 6-9 foot storm surge is now forecast along the Florida coast from the Perdido Pass to Indian Pass. Storm surge for Mobile Bay will be 3-5 ft. A storm surge warning is in effect.
*Rain amounts along the coast will be in the 4-8 inch range along the coast and across far South Alabama. Amounts of 1-3 inches are likely over the northern and central counties of the state. A flash flood watch is in effect.
*Winds could gust as high as 50-60 mph across much of Alabama tomorrow morning; tropical storm warnings are in effect up to I-20, and a high wind watch is in effect north of I-20. The brings the possibility of long-duration power outages, not just on the coast, but for much of Alabama as well. Highest wind for the coast will come tonight from 6:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. For inland parts of Alabama, highest velocities will come from 3:00 a.m. until 12 noon.
*A few isolated tornadoes are possible across Southeast Alabama. The tornado threat has shifted eastward in the latest SPC outlook for tomorrow.