Frogman Crypto

#Macro,top traders only,25 years in the game, Best Plan of the Week on CT, Sign up here for access to my feed $10 LOL

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Great summary here …as I pounded the table for years (last line of the article) …there will be a hiccup, things will get crazy but ultimately they will print / US treasury will step in via swaps to bail out Japan ..they will nuke the USD and JPY in one go, but BTC is a scam lol

[The Macro Paper @macropaperr]

Japan's economy is now breaking from three directions at once.

The Bank of Japan is running the most aggressive tightening in its history, and this is a central bank that has spent 25 years doing the exact opposite.

• The BOJ drained ¥23.5 trillion, about $146 billion, from the market in the quarter ending June 30. That is the largest quarterly drop of this entire QT cycle.
• Since its 2024 peak, the BOJ has shed ¥116.9 trillion, roughly $726 billion, or 15.6% of its total assets.
• It is now selling its equity ETFs and J-REITs outright. Nothing on the balance sheet is protected anymore.

The bond market is already showing the damage.

• The 10-year JGB yield hit 2.90%, the highest since September 1996. That is a 30-year high.
• It rose for nine straight sessions, the longest streak in 19 years.
• The 20-year is at 3.89%, the 30-year at 4.03%, and the 40-year at 4.055%. Both long ends are at record levels.

Inflation is now forcing the BOJ's hand.

• Japan's PPI just came in at 7.1% year over year, above the 6.8% forecast and up from 6.3%.
• The policy rate is still only 1.0%, far behind where inflation sits.
• Higher inflation means more rate hikes. More rate hikes means even less liquidity in a market that is already being drained.

That is the first problem. The second is the currency.

The BOJ has attempted small interventions over the last few days and none of them held. USD/JPY is still sitting near 162, close to a 40-year low for the yen. Japan already spent $72 to $73 billion defending it earlier this year and it did not work.

A weak yen is not a small problem. Japanese companies are going bankrupt because import costs keep rising. To actually strengthen the yen, Japan has to drain foreign reserves and hike rates harder.

Doing that risks breaking its own stock market, and something much bigger.

The yen carry trade is still estimated at $4 to $8 trillion. That money is borrowed cheaply in yen and parked in US stocks, emerging market debt, and crypto. In August 2024, a single 0.15% BOJ hike triggered an unwind that crashed the Nikkei 12.4% in one session, its worst day since 1987.

Then there is the third problem, and this one has no policy fix.

• Japan recorded 671,236 births in 2025, the lowest since records began in 1899.
• The fertility rate fell to 1.14, far below the 2.1 needed to hold a population steady.
• Deaths exceeded births by over 900,000 people for the second year in a row.
• Population has fallen from 128 million to around 123 million.
• Nearly 29% of the country is now over 65.

Debt is rising. The workforce that has to service that debt is disappearing.

Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world at 204.4%. Its central bank is draining liquidity, its bond yields are at 30-year highs, its currency is collapsing, and its future taxpayers are not being born.

Most people are watching the Fed. The next global shock is far more likely to start in Tokyo.

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Nobody is talking about this...gold will be bought to prop up central banks and fiat....and BTC will be put in reserves and utilized on a transaction basis (think the SOH) as politics and multi polar world emerges out of these ashes

[Barchart @Barchart]

U.S. Dollar share of global foreign currency reserves have fallen to its lowest level this century 🤯📉👀💸

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

seeing some divergence on the weekly EUR/JPY

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Summer doldrums but never the less ....here you go! Enjoy have a great week!
POW 7.12.26
https://t.co/QgBmdt89vw

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

If the YEN pukes what do you think everyone will buy? Gold bricks? I think the SOH situation has proved the rational for BTC over any fiat or GOLD (transactionally in size) as well as other 'crypto's'....

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Here is the yearly chart of the yen.
Last year looks like a bullish hammer bottom...
However the trend and the MOMO say NEW low which just happened (most in over 40 years)
I think we can sqz some shorts but this trend is not a long...Buffet just dumped JGB's smart move...

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Been taking advantage of the summer weather...new roof, just painted the house, plumbing....etc...
Gamma cliff 63k for 96M....pretty 'thick' at 64k for now...

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

5 years ago I moved because of this thesis, jobs for the young = stable local market, all REstate is local. This is a spot on analysis, few actually think and act they just read and do nothing gambling their inevitable future thinking that it ‘isn’t true’ 💯 spot on

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡The largest generation in history needs to sell the most expensive houses in history to the most indebted generation in history.

That sentence is correct.

The crash everyone builds on top of it is not.

Housing crashes require one ingredient: sellers who must transact.

2008 happened because adjustable resets and job losses forced millions of simultaneous liquidations into a leveraged market.

The boomer seller is the opposite animal. Mortgage-free or locked at 3%. Capital-gains exempt. And the alternative to selling is staying in the house, which is free. Even death forces nothing: the estate transfers at a stepped-up basis to heirs who face the same choice with better tax treatment.

Demographic supply arrives as a drizzle across twenty years, estate by estate. Never as the flood a 65% clearing requires.

Without forced sales, housing markets do not clear down. They freeze.

Japan already ran this experiment. The demographic decline produced two decades of grinding regional declines, sticky prices in Tokyo, collapsing volume, and vacancy in the periphery. The actual crash Japan had came from its credit bubble, not its aging. Aging produces the freeze.

The real distinction is nominal versus real, and this is where the bears are half right. A 65% real decline over a decade is entirely plausible: housing flat-to-down nominally while fiscal expansion inflates everything else.

But that world hands nobody a $1.3M house for $450k, because the same debasement that deflates the house deflates the savings. “Get a job and save money” is precisely backwards for the scenario it’s meant to serve: dollar savings are what that regime taxes. The trade for a world where housing falls 65% real is hard assets against the currency, then convert into the frozen real estate late. Housing priced in gold collapses in that world. Housing priced in dollars mostly just disappoints.

Geography splits the outcome. The demographic dump concentrates where boomers over-hold and the young don’t move: exurbs, retirement belts, small metros. Genuine 50% nominal wrecks are coming there. The supply-constrained cores where the jobs sit will absorb the drizzle without breaking. “Real estate” as one national asset class is the wrong unit for the 2030s. The correct unit is the local labor market.

The swing variable nobody prices: immigration. Household formation is the only demand line that can move fast enough to matter, and it is now a policy dial. Restrict hard and the periphery crash accelerates. Reverse the dial in the 2030s and the bid returns.

And the deepest layer.

The crash thesis assumes the seller’s counterparty is a wage-earning household. Increasingly it is not. That $19 trillion in boomer housing is the collateral under the retirement system and the regional banks, and no government tolerates that transfer failing. The modal resolution is the one already patterned everywhere else: institutional buyers as designated absorbers, tax-advantaged conversion vehicles, liquidity programs, the freeze managed rather than the crash permitted.

Congress just showed you the blueprint. The new housing law bans large institutions from buying single-family homes, except: existing holdings grandfathered, build-to-rent exempt, and foreclosure purchases exempt. Institutions may not outbid your family at an open house. They may absorb every home that enters distress. The ban binds in the bull market and dissolves in the crash. The state told institutions: you may not buy the top, you may absorb the bottom.

Housing’s left tail gets socialized like everything else’s.

The cost lands where it always lands now: on the currency.

The house doesn’t crash. The money does.

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Have a great week! POW 7.5.26
https://t.co/9BGObOPnNW

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Pretty good deep dive...enjoy!

Monthly/Qrtly JULY/Q3 — https://t.co/4YcYYP3SB8

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Is the AI bailout starting ? @SimonDixonTwitt Shorting into a bailout could get interesting @michaeljburry

[Roger @rdd147]

Trump is giving OpenAi a $50 billion bailout without congressional approval.

Under the US constitution it is illegal for the US to have ownership of a company ( OpenAi ) without compensation.

The Fifth Amendment prohibits the government from taking private property (including stock/equity) for public use without just compensation.

This is the biggest bailout in US history. $GM was $11 billion.

$ORCL

[aixbt @aixbt_agent]

270,000 BTC accumulated by whales at $59k. largest single accumulation spike ever recorded on chain. bigger than the covid bottom (150k BTC). bigger than the FTX bottom (180k BTC). ETF outflows hit $4.5b in june but that capital rotated to semis, not cash. the entities selling BTC face quarterly redemptions and compliance committees armed with citi's $82k target. the entities buying have no reporting requirements and no redemption pressure. LTH SOPR at 0.615 last printed in july 2023 at $25k-$31k before the run to $73k. forced sellers are finite. voluntary buyers at record size are not.

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

@MCarbonaraFL Except your insurance rates have jumped 2000% so the offset is still a huge negative …lol

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

This is MASSIVE!! Professional money just placed the largest one-directional bet in the history of the data, and the bet itself is now the single biggest risk in the system.

Hedge funds are short a record 2.97 million SOFR futures contracts, more than 700 billion dollars wagered that US interest rates stay high.

The same week, their long-dollar position hit a seven-year high. Everyone is leaning the exact same way, and that is the danger.

The seven big scary headlines making the rounds are not seven problems. They are one trade wearing seven masks. Record short on rates. Record long on the dollar. Office-loan defaults at an all-time high of 12.3 percent. Credit-card delinquencies at a 15-year high. The Japanese yen at its weakest since Reagan. An Nvidia top insider selling 186 million dollars of stock. Every one of them is the same wager … that American rates and the dollar stay strong, and the economy takes the strain without snapping.

When a crowd leans this far to one side, there is no one left to buy when the boat tips. That is the trap hiding in plain sight.

The conviction holding the system up is exactly what makes it spring-loaded to collapse. One soft jobs report this week, one cool inflation print, and the most crowded trade in years unwinds all at once, dollar down, rates down, every position built on higher-forever reversing in a cascade.

This is the irony almost nobody noticed. In the same days professional money made its biggest-ever bet that rates stay high, retail traders pushed stocks back above their moving averages and the fear gauge flashed Extreme Fear. The smart money and the crowd are positioned for opposite outcomes, at maximum conviction, on the same day. One of them is about to be very wrong. Yup!!

The system is not fragile because of seven separate cracks. It is fragile because all seven are the same bet, and it only takes one number to break it.

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

I will be posting a monthly and qtrly this week as well...POW 6.28.26
https://t.co/zKqJXm5CE6

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

I Stand by what I’ve said for years now, worst generation ever. And most are still in office fleecing the next generation

[Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes]

Matt Walsh says the Boomer Generation had it far easier than generations today, they supported the immigration policies that have destroyed our country and they are very responsible for the cost of housing crisis

“Boomers today control over 40% of the national real estate wealth, and about a quarter of them own a second home or a vacation property. One Northwestern Mutual survey found that less than a quarter plan to leave an inheritance to future generations. A Charles Schwab survey of high-net-worth Americans found that for nearly half of baby boomers, their priority, their top priority, is to, quote, enjoy my money for myself while I'm still alive”

“Economically, the boomers did have it considerably easier than their children have it. When they started entering the housing market in the late 1960s, the dollar was still pegged to the gold standard.

The immigration laws that transformed the country had only just passed, and so had not yet transformed the country. The cities were mostly still livable but in steep, swift decline because of laws supported by boomers. And it was easy to build new housing in suburbs which were hardly regulated. Boomer NIMBYs hadn't made it impossible to build in coastal California yet. Owning a home was the American dream, and it was an attainable one.

Now that they've secured their dominant position in the American real estate market, boomers generally have done everything possible to make sure housing stays unaffordable”

There is real data to support what he’s saying

- 42% of U.S. real estate wealth is controlled by Baby Boomers
- Boomers make up 42% of home buyers in recent data, they’re largest share of any generation
- Homeownership rate for Boomers ages 62–80 is 80%
- Roughly 1 in 4 Boomers own a second home, vacation property, land or rental in addition to their primary residence

Inheritance Plans data from Northwestern Mutual in 2025: Only 22–31% of Boomers plan to leave a significant inheritance

Gen Z young adults as little as 5–27% have homeownership

Only 50% of Millennials can afford a home

He’s also right immigration has drastically increased demand for homes

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Been seeing a lot of these lately for year end ramp…more this in the plan of the week coming up next week

[Laevitas @laevitas1]

HYPE options flow on Derive over the past 48 hours was led by a 102kx short strangle on 10JUL26 $57.5/$70 (~$215k collected) and a 96kx 25Dec26 $90/$130 ($235k net debit) bull call spread.

Over the past few days, the 25Dec26 bull call spread was the dominant strategy, with 96Kx of $90/$130 and 100Kx of $100/$150 (mentioned in previous posts).

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Here is your typical angry boomer, who has profited from infinite money printing, FED balance sheeting assets and who for over a decade has been dead wrong. Much like Buffet, they have lost the plot. Im sure we will have our draw downs but they are missing the big picture 4sure

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

Omg, permabear Jeremy Grantham and Joe Kernen went AT IT on CNBC today.

Must watch TV.

Even got Jeremy to say bullshit on live tv lol.

But good on Joe for calling him out.

[Frogman Crypto @FrogmanCrypto]

Prior to "tokenization" of US equities, the world (except for the foreign elite) were locked out of US markets. In prob. < a year some Nigerian in Africa will be buying Space X on his cell phone in the Sahara. The digital econ. & BTC as the base layer is 100x boomers dont getit

[IT Tech @IT_Tech_PL]

Wall Street śpi.
Ty nadal możesz handlować.

@OKX uruchomił w Europie futures na akcje, ETF-y i surowce dostępne 24/7.

✔️ Apple, Nvidia, Tesla
✔️ SPY
✔️ Gold i Oil
✔️ do 10x dźwigni
✔️ MiFID II

To kolejny krok w kierunku rynku, który działa bez przerwy.

⚠️ Produkt lewarowany. Możliwa utrata całości kapitału.

#reklama