FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿

Waste Management Consultant. investor📈. Insights into fight sports, sports business and finance

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

Get 3 months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) or $400 off Solar Panel installation with my referral link. $TSLA. @tesla. https://t.co/jbyN73r2io

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@RealHufff it will be the largest company to exist in our lifetimes.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

$SPCX - J.P. Morgan reiterated its Overweight rating on SpaceX (SPCX) and more than doubled its December 2027 price target from $240.00 to $500.00 following the company's Q3 2026 earnings release. J.P. Morgan's $500 price target applies a 20x multiple to 2028E GAAP EPS of $24.41.

SpaceX exited Q3 2026 with 1.7 GW of nameplate compute, projects 2.2 GW by late October, and guided to 2.5–3.0 GW by year-end 2026 (J.P. Morgan models 2.8 GW). SpaceX is adding ~200k GPUs per month (~600k GPUs in Q4 2026, drawing ~2 kW per GPU).

Management expects to deploy an incremental ~10 GW in 2027, targeting an exit run-rate of ~13 GW (above prior 5–10 GW expectations). J.P. Morgan conservatively models 10.1 GW of nameplate compute by YE27.

SpaceX is targeting 20 GW of power/cooling infrastructure by YE27. To bypass industry turbine backlogs (where blades/vanes lag by 12–18 months), SpaceX is leveraging its proprietary rocket metallurgy casting lines to cast blades and vanes for gas turbines in-house. The company is also pursuing modular data center deployments (prefabricated compute, power, and cooling units) alongside solar and wind.

Starlink reached 13.6M consumer subscribers (+1.6M net additions). Monthly consumer ARPU increased 5% QoQ to $69.

Early 2028 launch remains on schedule following the agreement to acquire Grain’s 800 MHz low-band paired spectrum alongside EchoStar S-band licenses. Network topology relies on 85–93% Wi-Fi offload and compact terrestrial satellite-backhauled radios on existing subscriber sites. However, J.P. Morgan maintains that SpaceX will eventually require traditional terrestrial macro towers to challenge incumbent carriers directly.

SpaceX confirmed it will attempt to catch both the Super Heavy booster and the upper stage Ship using the launch tower mechanical arms. While Super Heavy catches have succeeded three times, a Ship catch would mark a historic first and the critical technical unlock for 100% vehicle reusability.

Elon Musk disclosed that special committees have been formed at both SpaceX and Tesla to evaluate a potential business combination. While commercial linkages (Terafab chip facility, Megapack deployments, and shared AI engineering) support the thesis, J.P. Morgan notes that regulatory approval—especially regarding Tesla's wholly owned manufacturing presence in China vs. SpaceX's U.S. defense ties—represents a significant structural hurdle alongside TSLA shareholder vote approvals.

SpaceX raised 4Q26 capex guidance to $35–$40B (well above JPM's prior $19B estimate), bringing full-year 2026 capex to $87.2B. FY27 capex is modeled at $294.6B.

Management explicitly indicated that SpaceX is not considering raising public equity. Funding will be handled through substantial available debt facilities and rapidly expanding operating cash flow ($38.9B in FY26E climbing to $213.0B in FY27E and $358.0B in FY28E).

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

The MMA/Boxing rumor mill doesn’t stop.

The talk is @jakepaul v. @darrentill2 in December. Boxing. Could be Christmas or Christmas Eve. Dubai has been mentioned.

And Mike Perry returning to UFC.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

summary-
JPMorgan: Memory Market Update
October 20, 2026 | Analyst: Jay Kwon |

JPMorgan's central argument: Memory stocks have already suffered a decline consistent with a historical industry downturn, yet the underlying supply-and-demand data still point to a strong memory upcycle.

1. The selloff looks disconnected from fundamentals
Samsung−42% From 2026 peak
SK hynix−59% From 2026 peak
Micron−25% From 2026 peak

JPM notes that the three major memory manufacturers have declined an average of 42% from their recent peaks. Historically, memory downcycles have produced an average peak-to-trough decline of approximately 49%.

The market appears to be pricing in a memory earnings peak during the first half of 2027, even though JPM sees little supporting evidence. stock-documents.pdf

2. Memory fundamentals remain strong
JPM identifies several indicators that contradict the bearish narrative:
- Pricing: DDR4/DDR5 spot prices are flat to higher, rather than collapsing.
- Inventories: Supply remains extremely tight.
- Order visibility: Some pricing and supply discussions extend into 2028–2029.
- HBM: Pricing negotiations remain favorable for manufacturers.
- Supply chain: Limited evidence of significant AI-related order cancellations.

The charts on page 7 reinforce the argument: NAND and DDR memory spot prices have risen sharply, rather than showing the deterioration normally associated with a downcycle. stock-documents.pdf

3. Why investors are selling anyway
JPM attributes the weakness largely to concerns outside the memory industry itself.

Investors are increasingly questioning whether hyperscalers and AI infrastructure companies can sustain enormous capital spending, particularly with negative free cash flow, rising funding costs and weaker-than-expected revenue growth among frontier AI developers.

This is a fear about the future financing of AI infrastructure, not necessarily evidence of weakening memory demand today.

JPM also identifies demand from agentic AI systems, particularly CPU-associated memory requirements, as a potentially underappreciated growth driver. stock-documents.pdf

4. Four catalysts that could reverse the selloff

CatalystWhy it matters
Higher HBM contentMore memory capacity or bandwidth per AI package

Supply disciplineRestrained capex and production growth support pricing

New AI applicationsBroader AI workloads create additional memory demand

Larger buybacks and dividendsJPM sees shareholder returns as the most important near-term catalyst

JPM argues that management teams need to demonstrate confidence in their future cash generation, particularly when investors are assigning extremely low earnings multiples. stock-documents.pdf

5. JPM's preferred investments
CompanyJPM view
SK hynixPreferred over Samsung in the near term, due to shareholder returns

Samsung ElectronicsOverweight; monitor HBM4 pricing and execution

Kioxia HoldingsOverweight; monitor NAND pricing and QLC demand

Nanya TechnologyOverweight

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

And why Dubai? Big John and Tommy aren't allowed in the US. Tyson is but not John and Tommy.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

The working idea. Christmas Day which is a Friday (the night Netflix likes to do boxing events)-
- Packers @ Bears 1 PM ET.
- Bills @ Broncos at 4:30.
- And Jake Paul v Darren Till later in the night.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

The MMA/Boxing rumor mill doesn’t stop.

The talk is @jakepaul v. @darrentill2 in December. Boxing. Could be Christmas or Christmas Eve. Dubai has been mentioned.

And Mike Perry returning to UFC.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@MurrayHillGuy1 this wasn't the right move. but maybe he don't care. just wanted some company at the game. but HR text incoming.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@magllc Good pt. Overlooked that. I guess Jake could walk at 1130 or so.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

$NFLX - JPM maintains Overweight but reduces its price target from $85 to $81.

$NFLX’s ~6% post-earnings selloff looks more like an advertising execution problem than a core streaming problem.

JPM’s key takeaways:
• 2026 ad revenue outlook cut from $3B to $2.7B.
• Core subscription outlook effectively raised ~$200M.
• US/Canada revenue growth accelerated to 11%; churn improved.
• Netflix is refocusing on TV and film rather than gaming and other experiments.
• $4.8B repurchased in Q3, with $22.3B in remaining authorization.
• JPM projects 20% annualized FCF growth through 2029.

The investment debate: Advertising is behind schedule, but the core subscription engine remains healthy. The bigger uncertainty is whether Netflix can sustain double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion in 2027.

Five drivers of a stock recovery

1. Advertising execution improves. Netflix cut its 2026 advertising revenue forecast from $3 billion to $2.7 billion because its ad technology rollout is behind schedule. JPM expects advertising to become an increasingly profitable revenue stream. Netflix also plans to introduce its ad tier in 15 additional countries in 2027.

2. Core subscriptions remain strong. JPM estimates that Netflix effectively raised its subscription revenue outlook by $200 million. US/Canada revenue growth accelerated to 11%, while customer churn improved. Continued growth would reassure investors that the underlying business isn't deteriorating.

3. Pricing power drives revenue. JPM estimates recent price increases in the UK, Germany and Austria could generate approximately $1 billion in incremental annualized revenue, with Brazil potentially adding another $350 million.

4. Margins and free cash flow expand. JPM forecasts 2026–2029 annualized growth of 10% in revenue, 15% in operating income and 20% in free cash flow. Improving profitability could justify a higher valuation.

5. New content leadership restores confidence. Peter Rice replacing Bela Bajaria represents a significant change. JPM acknowledges that improving engagement and demonstrating the impact of Rice's content strategy will take time. Stronger engagement would help reduce investor concerns.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

but keep in mind, Till could be being used as leverage to get Tommy Fury to commit to fighting in December. Big John has said March and that Jake can stick his $10 million up his arse.... so there's that.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@nypost JAIL AND THEN DEPORT!!!

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@gifdsports it would do ok. they would prefer tommy fury. till could be a leverage play to get fury to agree

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@SouthernValue95 @elonmusk he can use the compute himself then.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@thgirWnosaJ Possible solution.. ring-fence or transfer control of TSLA’s China business (similar to the TikTok arrangement). A China-based consortium could take >50% control, with TSLA retaining revenue via licensing of its brand, FSD (walled off), and Optimus tech.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

JPMorgan's Tesla–SpaceX merger math is fascinating. At a 32.5% premium for TSLA, the transaction would create a ~$4 trillion company. Musk would own just 34% economically but retain 51% voting control. He could consolidate his AI empire without surrendering control.

The investment thesis isn't about combining cars and rockets. JPMorgan attributes 86% of Tesla's projected 2035 enterprise value to Robotaxi, Optimus, FSD and AI compute/licensing. A merger would consolidate compute, energy, connectivity, robotics and autonomy under one capital structure. The potential upside is enormous, but so are the execution and capital requirements.

The real investment question is who captures the value. Tesla shareholders could receive a substantial takeover premium and exposure to SpaceX's AI infrastructure and Starlink businesses. SpaceX shareholders would absorb significant dilution in exchange for Tesla's physical-AI platform. The merger only creates value if those synergies exceed the premium paid and the dilution incurred. Strategic logic alone doesn't make it a good deal. $TSLA $SPCX

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@EmperorLetoll @FightGameIsLife @davemeltzerWON Paramount didn't release viewership. Makes me believe it wasn't great. Gate was disappointing too. Tons of reasonably priced tickets available the day of. Truth is there aren't many draws. There's Canelo. AJ. Fury with the right dance partner.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

TKO and Sela/Turki aren’t the backstops. It’s David Ellison. No one can monetize fight sports better than SkyDance/David Ellison. Not the failing Netflix or an obscure app with stray promoters. The day to day noise is just that. The machine keeps moving. The future has already been written. David Ellison will ensure the golden age of boxing with the help of Dana White, Nick Khan, Ari, Sela and Turki.

[Rick Glaser @RickGlaserTheOG]

To those wishing for the demise of Zuffa Boxing....it's not going to happen.
Zuffa is here to stay whether you like it or not. They are a,company that is built for a long race.....not a short sprint.

Zuffa is a subsidiary of the TKO Group, which has a 32.98 stock Cap evaluation. That tells you all you need to know. And the Saudis have a 60% interest in Zuffa Boxing.

Releasing Shakur Stevenson was a prudent business decision. Zuffa Executives showed plenty of patience waiting as long as they did.

Zuffa Boxing is absolutely not going to run out of money.

Remember this, bet on Dana White. His track record clearly says so.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@PonyJuice1010 Exactly. Zuffa dodged a bullet here.. and luckily gave him zero signing bonus.. so nothing lost.

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

Skakur Stevenson is unserious.

[Hassan @Hassanwellss]

🥊‼️Shakur Stevenson vs. Pitbull Cruz NEGOTIATIONS are underway‼️😳
🎥:@fighthype

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

@LeeRoberts8976 STFU BELLEND

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

As George Strait said, Easy come, easy go. No signing bonus. Easy clean break with a cancer. You think they knew something? I just have a feeling cuz who the hell signs a promotional deal with no signing bonus? Skakur did.

[IFL TV @IFLTV]

‘Awful. It’s EMBARRASSING’ ‼️

- @eddiehearn absolutely NOT HOLDING BACK on Dana White & Shakur Stevenson situation 🍿

FULL INTERVIEW ON IFLTV YOUTUBE https://t.co/RYSneJCxyB

#boxing #eddiehearn

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

Morgan Stanley on $NFLX: Trims PT to $77 (from $80), stays Overweight with shares hovering near 52-week lows (~$68.70).

Why it sold off:
• FY26 ad revenue guided down ~$300M to $2.7B on slower ad-tech & partner integrations
• Content slate delivered doubles and triples, but lacked an English-language mega-hit
• Broad SVOD multiple de-rating amid screen-time pressure from UGC (YouTube/TikTok)
• Restructuring noise: cut ~1,000 roles (~6% of staff), hitting Q4 op margins by ~120 bps

The case for a rebound:
• Trough valuation: Trading at ~14–15x FY28E EPS (~$4.50)—identical to its 2022 bear-market bottom
• Loaded Q4 live event slate: NFL Thanksgiving (with U2), Christmas Day NFL doubleheader, and Tyson Fury vs. Anthony Joshua
• Leadership reset: Peter Rice in as Chief Content Officer to bridge creative execution with capital discipline
• Ad delays are "months, not years": Monetization ramp is pushed back, not broken (>70% YoY ad rev growth still expected)

Price targets & scenarios:
• Base Case: $77 (+12%)
• Bull Case: $98 (+43%)
• Bear Case: $56 (-18%)

[FrontRowBrian™ 🇺🇸 ₿ @FrontRowBrian]

Absolutely brilliant series, based on the novels by Mick Herron. First 6 seasons are on AppleTV+.