FUERZA

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@bihan35 Sourions en attendant sagement le 12 août😇

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

$NBIS (Nebius) currently has a market cap of $45 billion.. stock is down -40% from the all time highs.

Looking at sell side estimates... consensus is $45 billion of revenues in CY2030.

In my base case model I'm currently at $47.5 billion revenues in CY2030 with my bull case model at $55 billion revenues in CY2030... both models with ~20% EBIT margins in CY2030 (sell side is at ~24%)

When I started buying $NBIS last year in the $20s and $30s, my long term thesis wasn't just about being a leading neocloud, it was also about their stakes in Clickhouse, AVride, Toloka and TripleTen.

Clickhouse is an open-source database management system.
AVride is a leading developer in autonomous cars and robots.
Toloka provides data labeling for ai models, similar to what ScaleAI does.
TripleTen provides online education/training for tech/ai related jobs.

$NBIS owns ~28% of Clickhouse which raised their last round in January 2026 at ~$15 billion valuation.

$NBIS owns ~83% of AVride which raised their last round in October 2025 at ~$4 billion valuation.

$NBIS owns ~50% of Toloka which raised their last round in May 2025 at ~$500M valuation.

$NBIS owns ~100% of TripleTen which is probably worth $250-500M because it's reported they did $54M revenues in 2025, up 87% YoY from 2024.

Right now those four stakes are worth at least $8 billion

Databricks just raised $3B at a $188 billion valuation, which was approximately 27x their current $6.9B ARR. Clickhouse raised their last round in January 2026, when the company was reportedly doing $250M ARR but growing 200-250% YoY which means they raised at a 60x multiple. Now that we're 6 months past that last round, I don't know their current ARR but I'd be surprised if they're not closing in on $500M ARR with a good shot at $1B ARR next year which makes me think their next round could be at a $30+ billion valuation.

We all know the robotaxi wars are coming with Waymo currently in the lead, Tesla behind them and then Uber with their multiple partners in third place. The numbers are still small for all of these companies but that's going to change drastically over the next 3-5 years. It's very hard to know where the AVride valuation goes from here and how many robotaxis they're able to deploy through the Uber partnership (which invested $375M in the last round) however if AVride becomes a leading provider on the Uber platform, it's possible they could have 100,000+ robotaxis deployed by 2030 in which case the company could be valued at 5-10x the last round... depending on revenues, margins, capex, depreciation, etc... worth noting that deploying 100,000+ robotaxis will require alot of dilution (to fund the capex/opex) so the $NBIS stake would get watered down quite significantly.

Here's the reason for my post (just my personal thoughts)... it's possible these 4 stakes that $NBIS owns could increase in value by 400-500% over the next 4-5 years which means they'd be worth ~$45B in ~CY2030 which means if you're buying $NBIS today at a ~$45B market cap... there's a chance you're getting the entire neocloud business for free 😁

NFA.
DYOR.
*We are long $NBIS at @FirstWaveFund

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@DrScratch 🤣🤣

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@bihan35 J'ai re-buy, un peu😉

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@Crow__lol BANGER

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@Siana_1110 Mérité x1000

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@profpicsou La belle France🤣

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@bihan35 Ça suffit la🫪

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@bihan35 64%, première année en bourse..

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@bihan35 https://t.co/uFpKaivnj2

[Emmanuel Macron @EmmanuelMacron]

Nebius choisit la France.

L’acteur du Cloud IA dévoile un projet de plus de 8 milliards d’euros d’investissement pour déployer des infrastructures et des services de cloud, avec une capacité cible de 240 MW, positionnant le site parmi les plus puissants du continent.

Bedankt!

[Emmanuel Macron @EmmanuelMacron]

Nebius choisit la France.

L’acteur du Cloud IA dévoile un projet de plus de 8 milliards d’euros d’investissement pour déployer des infrastructures et des services de cloud, avec une capacité cible de 240 MW, positionnant le site parmi les plus puissants du continent.

Bedankt!

[Florence Avignon @AvignonFlo32293]

Pour ceux que ça intéresse, j'ai fait un trend imagé cette nuit et ce matin, d'une grande partie de ce qui s'est passé dans Paris cette nuit, grâce aux nombreux contributeurs de X. N'hésitez pas à partager, tout est regroupé dans le fil ci-dessous.

N'hésitez pas aussi à en ajouter si j'en ai oublié.

https://t.co/RjmQdqp0d3

[bihan35 🧬 💻 👀 @bihan35]

$NBIS...👍

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@L_ThinkTank 🤣🤣

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@sorenq9 Sublime et mérité !

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@profpiscou D'accord avec toi!
L'avenir est radieux

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@bihan35 Une pépite🫡

[FUERZA @Fuerz9]

@bihan35 🥵😎😎