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bitcoin:native
One bounce after a 30% drop and the bottom callers are back.
Same story all cycle.
All we’re seeing here is a bear pennant. A counter-trend consolidation within a broader downtrend.
When the chart flagpoles from $83K to $59K in a matter of days, the least you should expect is a counter-trend bounce.
There are only two levels that matter in deciding whether the $59K sweep happens sooner rather than later.
$64K + $66K.
$64K is the current compound pivot. A break there would clear both the pennant and horizontal resistance which would give price a short-term boost.
Then BTC needs to reclaim $66K, the former macro range support which now acts as the key resistance.
Until both are taken, the path of least resistance is still a sweep of the $59K low and continuation deeper into the $50K range.
Time it took for $BTC to bottom after the halving.
2012: 777 Days
2016: 882 Days
2020: 924 Days
Price has now passed the fastest bottoming date and is currently sitting at day 780.
If this cycle continues to correlate with previous cycles, the bottom will likely be found within the next 150 days.
The bear market bottom is much closer than most think.
This is not the time to flip bearish.
#BREAKING: US CPI came in at 4.2% year over year in May. Exactly what Wall Street expected. No surprise there.
But Core CPI month over month printed 0.2%. That is a miss. Forecast was 0.3%. Previous was 0.4%.
Here is why that matters.
Core CPI strips out food and energy. It is the number the Fed actually watches when making rate decisions. A miss to the downside means underlying inflation pressure is cooling faster than expected.
The headline number looks ugly at 4.2%. Up from 3.8% last month. But that jump is almost entirely driven by oil and energy costs from the Iran conflict. The Fed cannot control oil prices by raising rates.
What they can control is everything else. And everything else just came in softer.
Two scenarios from here.
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel holds. Oil drops. The next CPI print comes in below 4%. Fed cuts in September as originally planned. Risk assets recover hard.
Or the conflict reignites. Oil spikes again. Headline CPI goes to 4.5% or higher. Fed is forced to hike in December. Everything stays under pressure.
Core CPI at 0.2% just gave the Fed a small window to breathe.
Whether they use it depends entirely on what oil does this week.
Rest. #DYOR
🇯🇵 BOJ is expected to do a rate hike next week.
Here's what happened after the last 4 rate hikes:
▫️ March 2024: $BTC dropped 20.8%
▫️ July 2024: BTC dropped 29.1%
▫️ January 2025: BTC dropped 32.3%
▫️ December 2025: BTC dropped 33.8%
Sometimes the dump was immediate, while sometimes it took a few weeks.
Do you think this dump pattern will repeat again?
Solana Is Getting Ready for a pump!
Take a look at the $SOL chart. After $BTC dip and subsequent recovery, combined with rising Bitcoin dominance, it's obvious that many altcoins are likely to move lower
My thesis is that $BTC will remain range bound until the fall, with a possible drop to $50k!!!
Meanwhile, $SOL already looks oversold and should be able to hold these levels
The worst-case scenario would be a move down to the $33-40 range, but that would likely require a sharp Bitcoin sell off and a very poor overall market environment
For now, there are no signs that such a scenario is on the horizon
$ETH
This is a pretty awkward spot for ETH.
In each of its bear years, ETH has typically bottomed after breaking below its weekly RSI oversold support around 30.
Each time it spent consecutive weeks there, it marked quite literally the exact bottom of the cycle.
The problem is that on both occasions, the chart nuked considerably.
In 2018, once ETH entered that territory, price corrected roughly 63% from $205 to $75.
In 2022, it dropped around 65% from $2,200 to $750.
We haven’t entered that oversold region yet, and we're sitting just below $1,700.
That’s not exactly a great spot to be in when the major macro support is only 15% below the current price.
If there is a positive to find, it’s that ETH has spent more time in the lower half of the oscillator this cycle than any prior 4-year period.
So there is a small possibility that ETH bottoms without RSI deeply breaking that support in the first place.
There’s also the fact that ETH never had a true breakout this cycle, which may mean the chart doesn’t necessarily need the same type of violent correction as a rebalancing act.
But typically, ETH bottoms when nobody wants to own it anymore.
In both prior bears, that has always been in oversold territory.
$BTC
Let this be a lesson to you all.
We’ve had billions in liquidations, and BTC has dumped nearly -25% with barely a bounce.
Why?
Because perp volume has been carrying this range for a long time.
Without its delta, this range would have broken down long ago.
Any time perp volume is carrying the chart's stability instead of spot, that’s an early warning sign that the move is becoming untrustworthy.
Because if there’s no spot volume underneath, who absorbs the liquidations?
If the answer is more perps, then you already know the range’s eventual destiny.
Now you know. ✌️
$BTC
No one believed me in February.
But believe me when I say this.
Within the next few months, we'll slowly get into the accumulation zone.
The second half of bear market years are for stacking Bitcoin.
$BTC
Our plan of going up and clearing the above levels is still valid.
I am still in the long and our SL was well placed and got survived by $45.
Now what I am looking for next from here is,
Price breaking above 74.2k, so that it could go higher and test 76.3k.
Which will decide weather we go higher or that's it for the bulls.
I am still targeting 78-79k for TP (mainly 78k now),
Cuz we got good liquidity above that level and is high likely to get tapped.
This is going to be the FINAL push up before we come down falling into low 60s and potentially Sub-60k.
Overall the current resistance to look for are,
74.2k
76.3k
The Invalidation to our long bias is daily close below the current lows (72.4k).
$BTC
The Liquidity Cluster built around 73-74k is cleared,
Now we are due for a Bearish Retest into our Shorting Zone, as we got liquidity building above.
Our first major resistance to watch for is mO (76.3k),
If price manages to break through it, we will go for the liquidity built higher,
Though if price rejects from 76.3k, we will form the HL there and start going lower from mO.
Will post the Setups in my discord corner.
ethereum:native 8H
I think most of the main bullish narrative in ETH is already priced in.
In the near term, I expect a return to the 2139–2190 resistance zone, where it will be interesting to watch seller reaction and the next move in the correction scenario.
Locally, I also wouldn’t rule out a move up to clear short-side liquidity - that would actually look like the most logical setup before a new leg down, especially if the market gets another positive news impulse.
For now, the base case remains the same: after a reaction from resistance, I expect continuation lower with targets at 2060, 1936, and below.
If the correction deepens, the next reference levels are 1824 and 1736.
$BTC
I’ve gone through every Friday since the 60K bottom, and this pattern keeps repeating:
Out of the 7 Fridays that saw strength, all 7 weekends pushed lower and closed below Friday’s candle close.
Today is Friday.
Price pushed higher...
#Bitcoin micro-count:
$BTC went further down like predicted.
There now is a very real chance that we will see some green days.
But new highs are still not happening imo.
38k here we go!
1, 2, 3, 4… and BOOM.
If this pattern repeats,
the next leg could take Bitcoin to 38k.
That zone remains my base case.
And just like previous cycles,
it probably won’t happen in a straight line.
There may be relief rallies, pauses, and local bottoms along the way.
But structurally,
this still looks like the same simulation playing out again.
Here's the most interesting part about this.
Today, Papa John's pizza is worth $1.07 billion.
This means at $126K BTC, this guy could have bought the entire company with 10,000 Bitcoin.
This is CZ, the richest person in crypto...
He created Binance and made $111B in 9 years
I analyzed all his tweets, interviews and predictions...
Here's his strategy, crimes and 5 market predictions 🧵👇
(#3 will save you millions)