FundTalk

Jessada Sookdhis, CFA. Co-founder & CEO at Finnomena. Contrarian Syle Investment. Experienced Fund Manager . Ex-Founding president at Thai FinTech Association.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

EXPECTED TERMS OF US-IRAN 60-DAY CEASEFIRE EXTENSION, PER AXIOS:

1. The ceasefire will be extended via a "Memorandum of Understanding"

2. This establishes a 60-day window to "launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear program"

3. During the 60-day period, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be "unrestricted"

4. The US Navy will lift its blockade in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping

5. Iran will include a commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon in the Memorandum of Understanding

6. The Memorandum of Understanding will also state that the nuclear issues will be discussed "first" during the 60-day window

7. The US will commit to discussing sanction relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds

8. The Memorandum of Understanding will also include a mechanism to help Iran begin receiving goods and humanitarian aid

US stock markets are surging to fresh record highs on the news of a potential deal.

We now await final approval of the deal.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

China To Impose Mining Controls On Strategic Minerals https://t.co/Zcickdu2Mj

[Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop]

UBS warns for 2026 Copper Deficit

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

The commodity cycle is here and no one is positioned for it.

- The last commodity cycle peaked at 12 percent commodity allocation
- Currently we are sitting at ~3 percent
- That’s ~75 percent lower

Meanwhile, conditions for the current cycle are far more favorable.

The US and the West by extension is slowly waking up to the fact that offshoring their industrial base to China in the pursuit higher margins, led to a loss of sovereignty.

The oil crisis in the 70s was not a shortage of supply, but rather the unavailability of supply... OPEC embargoed the US.

Similarly, today China is dominating the natural resource space:

- Defense
- EVs
- Mobile phones

You name it, all of it requires Chinese mining or processing.

The US can print all the money in the world, but it’s worthless if China refuses to sell.

Trump’s reintroduction of the Monroe Doctrine, reshoring, and the critical minerals stockpile was a desperate attempt to address that problem.

To regain independence, massive amounts of money have to be spent on the grid, factories, and processing facilities, all of which consume huge amounts of resources.

There is no new economy without the old one… China understands it.

Control downstream and you rule all upstream industries.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Silver coin and bar demand is rising again

- 2024: 191mt
- 2025: 218mt up 14%
- 2026: 258mt up 18%

Meanwhile:

- silver is in a deficit for 6 consecutive years
- China is draining global silver inventories
- silver supply peaked in 2016

Ignore short-term volatility. Over the longer term, the future for silver is bright.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

China's chip exports are surging:

China's chip exports jumped +100% YoY in April, to a record ~$31 billion.

This figure has TRIPLED over the last 2 years.

At the same time, overseas sales of laptops, tablets, and their components jumped +47% YoY.

Goldman Sachs and Nomura estimate that semiconductors, computers, and other AI-related products accounted for ~50% of China's export growth last month.

In total, Chinese exports rose +14% YoY in April, to $359 billion, the highest monthly reading on record.

Put differently, Chinese companies were generating ~$500 million in export revenue every hour on average last month.

China's economy is evolving with AI.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

EXPECTED TERMS IN "FINAL DRAFT" OF US-IRAN AGREEMENT:

1. Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts

2. All parties mutually agree to refrain from targeting infrastructure

3. Freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is guaranteed under a "joint monitoring mechanism"

4. Sanctions will be "gradually lifted" in exchange for Iran's compliance with the terms of the deal

5. Negotiations on outstanding issues will begin within a maximum of 7 days

6. Iran's President Pezeshkian is leading efforts to restrain the IRGC from overstepping on political and diplomatic policy-making

The agreement is expected to be announced within the next "few hours."

Turn on our post notifications @KobeissiLetter, we will be bringing it to you first.

Pakistani officials are reportedly brokering the deal.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Food is set to become even more expensive:

World fertilizer prices have surged +44% since the start of the Iran War, to the highest since 2022.

This comes as ~33% of globally traded fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.

This includes 23% of global ammonia, 34% of urea, the world's most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly 20% of global phosphate supply.

Furthermore, the Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex has increased ~9% since the Iran war.

The index tracks the futures prices of key agricultural commodities, including wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee, and cotton.

In the past, world fertilizer prices have acted as a leading indicator for agricultural output prices, as rising production costs eventually force farmers to reduce supply, pushing crop prices higher.

A new wave of global food inflation is imminent.

[Reuters @Reuters]

Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year, FAO warns https://t.co/Ygh7r0Tv01 https://t.co/Ygh7r0Tv01

[Bloomberg @business]

The danger for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is that any move to engineer interest-rate cuts that Donald Trump wants will stoke the bond selloff https://t.co/lbQgvnbQNK

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US 30Y Note Yield rises to 5.18%, its highest level since July 2007.

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Iran’s deputy foreign minister said lifting sanctions, releasing frozen funds and ending the blockade were included in Iran’s recent proposal to the US, according to IRNA news agency.

🔴 More on https://t.co/5H0QqpfIYw

[PeerMetals @peer_metals]

95 million ounces of silver left the US in just 60 days. 🥈

COMEX inventories dropped from 531 million to 315 million ounces in 7 months.

That is 216 million ounces gone.

More than 3 months of all the silver mined on earth. Drained.

Silver is at $76 today.

This is not a metal in oversupply. 📉

#Silver #COMEX #PreciousMetals

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

NEW 🔴

Iran State run Tasnim reports the latest U.S. proposal would temporarily suspend sanctions on Iran’s oil exports during negotiations.

Tehran says any final deal must include the full removal of all sanctions, while Washington is offering only interim relief until a permanent agreement is reached.

(Take this report with caution)

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Turkey

Turkish Lira falls to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar 🇹🇷📉 Now down 98% since 2010 🤯👀

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

.@USTreasury is issuing a temporary 30-day general license to provide the most vulnerable nations with the ability to temporarily access Russian oil currently stranded at sea.

This extension will provide additional flexibility, and we will work with these nations to provide specific licenses as needed. This general license will help stabilize the physical crude market and ensure oil reaches the most energy-vulnerable countries.

It will also help reroute existing supply to countries most in need by reducing China’s ability to stockpile discounted oil.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇨🇳 China just switched on the world's largest offshore solar farm

2.3 million solar panels. 2,934 steel platforms. 11,736 piles driven into the ocean floor. Built to survive force-11 gales and sea ice.

It sits 5 miles off the coast and powers 2.67 million people.

Oh, and they're also farming fish underneath it 😳

[Reuters @Reuters]

India restricts most silver imports to cut import bill, support rupee https://t.co/7w4lIoBG3G https://t.co/7w4lIoBG3G

[0xNobler @CryptoNobler]

🚨 BREAKING

🇺🇸 KEVIN WARSH HAS OFFICIALLY REPLACED JEROME POWELL AS THE NEW FED CHAIR TODAY!

HE’S TAKING AN AGGRESSIVELY HAWKISH STANCE FROM DAY ONE, ALREADY PUSHING RATE HIKES INSTEAD OF CUTS.

THIS IS VERY BAD NEWS FOR BITCOIN AND RISK ASSETS...

[PeerMetals @peer_metals]

COMEX silver withdrawals just hit near record lows. 🥈

The last time this happened was December.

In January the LBMA ran into serious trouble meeting physical demand from India and China.

History may be about to repeat itself.

May is going to be a very interesting month for silver. 📈

#Silver #COMEX #PreciousMetals