I can see how despondent everyone is about crypto and the pure chartists are telling you it's all over, but I don't agree...
Global Liquidity is the most dominant macro factor in history with a 90% correlation to BTC and 97% to NDX since 2012. It is growing at around 10% a year and is not slowing.
GMI financial conditions lead it by 6 months. They are still easing.
The air pocket was US Total Liquidty which was curtailed by the shut down. It leads crypto by 3 months and is accelerating from its low 3 months ago.
The business cycle is the key driver of earning and thus risk. It is accelerating.
The eSLR is the mechanism by which banks can increase liquidity via credit and absorbing treasury issuance. This liquidity is rising too and will accelerate.
Tax refunds land on bank balance sheets and add to propensity of credit creation and thus liquidity.
China is accelerating expanding its balance sheet.
More rate cuts are coming in the US and will add to disposable income and thus risk taking.
CLARITY Act will likely get agreed and adds to flows. The wall of banks and asset managers wanting to use this technology is enormous and this bill sorts that out.
Stablecoins are accelerating and issuance grew 50% last year and is accelerating. Volumes are in the trillions of $'s and are accelerating.
We have the most supportive government for crypto ever in the US.
Finally the agents are coming and will hyper accelerate. They are an entirely new TAM
The crypto market is still in fear and by most measures the most oversold in history.
Weekly DeMark indicators would give a very solid base in 2 weeks (you can now get them officially on Trading View).
Daily DeMark's are stack up too. Any weakness from here will complete the dailies and the weeklies indicating full trend reversal potential.
The risk factor is how long oil prices stay up.
The next 2 weeks are the key focus.
I think this all resolves positively.
Higher.
Around two months after mainnet launch stablecoin supply and daily active addresses on Plasma have now stabilized. Incentives have been cut by more than 95% and stablecoin supply is holding organically at ~$2.1B.
Plasma’s Aave market is still the second largest in the world at $4.4B driven by a ~$2B organic USDT lending market. This is the credit foundation every product on Plasma depends on and exactly the outcome we wanted when bootstrapping our ecosystem.
Plasma is the 6th largest chain by DeFi TVL and the fastest growing in the top 10 over the past month even as we cut incentives aggressively.
h/t @asxn_r@DefiLlama