Golden Kappa

Standing on the shoulders of giants

BTC Lightning:
uppersheet711@walletofsatoshi

BTC Onchain:
bc1pku2gwdpldaew8fer83f9ajuqumvyzmadycfgln0trpa7cn9ujmmqts3es3

[Vitaliy Katsenelson @vitaliyk]

Value investing is dead if you define it as buying statistically cheap stocks. Algorithms will arbitrage that away.

Value investing is a philosophy: analyzing stocks as businesses, asking for a margin of safety, having a long-term time horizon.

What I just described isn't really "value investing." It's just investing. And common sense is not dead.

[Bread Crumbs Research @breadcrumbsre]

Studying best track records (in terms of stock performance) of consumer staples CEOs over the past 3 decades. Could not do this manually but now we have a robot

[Sunny Po @sunny051488]

@CompletedStreet But muh nightlife and networking opportunities

[Citrini @citrini]

I give it a year until we see a new breed of AI native private equity firms that acquire companies just so they can move their workflows from Claude to open source Chinese models and flip them.

[Golden Kappa @GKappaCapital]

@RoaringRagnar Sure you have.

[Golden Kappa @GKappaCapital]

@hood__house @grok @grok answer?

[Golden Kappa @GKappaCapital]

@hood__house @grok is this good/bad for robinhood?
Also, does this rule negatively impact traders/retail?

[Carl Jung Archive @QuoteJung]

casually reading some Carl Jung and then he hits you with this:

[Ben Sigman @bensig]

There are 4 kinds of Bitcoiners.

10 questions. Keep a running total of your points. Your score at the end tells you which one you are. 🧵

[Golden Kappa @GKappaCapital]

@sunny051488 @jaenicc You knew the assignment! The trick is to build competency, get a productive hobby and enjoy life in easy mode. Instead, folks with 0 true hobbies try to search for their purpose through work.

[Golden Kappa @GKappaCapital]

@MarylandHODL21 @BenPhiat @PunterJeff Can you elaborate ?

[Golden Kappa @GKappaCapital]

@Moustache_bq @unusual_whales It’s a feature not a bug.

[Golden Kappa @GKappaCapital]

@hood__house These analysts are just chasing the price to sound smart. It’s pathetic how so much of institutional buys are dictated by these shortsighted analysts.

Tomorrow if $hood goes up to $900 im sure they will justify that valuation +- 5%

[Hood House @hood__house]

$HOOD

🚨 BREAKING: SEC PROPOSES ELIMINATING "ORDER PROTECTION RULE" FOR STOCK TRADING

- Rule requires trades execute at best displayed price across platforms
- It would ban "trade-throughs" -- where a trade fills at a price worse than quotes elsewhere
- SEC says the rule adds cost, complexity, little benefit
- Other price transparency rules will stay

[peony @peonyKingOF]

Trying something new. Here is a detailed report where I try to identify data companies that have the most to gain via AI winners is here:
https://t.co/OaXm0j0d8k

Put a few hours into developing a screening table, identified the most compelling cases within that, and did a few hours of QA on those identified winners to get a better feel about what they were all about.

The table is fairly gargantuan so that same information is provided in one pagers for each company here. However, the QA and selection process is not in this version.
https://t.co/iu4EKoYd4p

I am not really wedded to any of the conclusions within here. It is a work in progress. I am presenting it here for feedback.
- What companies are missing?
- Aspects people agree with or disagree with?
- Other ways you would approach this type of research?
- Things you find compelling?

[Clark Square Capital @ClarkSquareCap]

Good stuff. Lays out the thesis for $SMWB as an AI-data winner.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

I was 26 years old when Peter Lynch handed me this.

April 28, 1983. I was the auto and retail analyst at Fidelity.

Peter was in his prime, on his way to building the greatest mutual fund track record in history:

29.2% annual returns for 13 YEARS STRAIGHT, growing Magellan from $18 million to $14 billion. The Babe Ruth of investing.

I'm looking at the principles he had typed up on a single sheet of paper that I've kept in my files for 42 years and I believe now is the perfect time to revisit them again.

Let me walk you through a few:

Rule 1B: "You need an edge to make money. Do not rely on a combination of hope and good luck."

Today's retail investor has no edge. He has Reddit, Robinhood, zero-DTE options and a TikTok algorithm pushing him into whatever stock just ripped 200% the day before.

That's hope and good luck wearing a fancy costume.

Rule 1E: "Purchase stocks like one would purchase a business."

Tesla trades at over 360 times earnings on a business deteriorating in real time, Oracle has $206 billion in liabilities against $39 billion in equity, MicroStrategy is a leveraged Bitcoin holding company priced like a software firm, and don't even get me started on SpaceX, that piece of garbage you'll be able to trade tomorrow...

Nobody in their right mind would buy these as actual businesses. They buy them as stories, narratives, and lottery tickets.

Peter would have called it the same way I do - these are not investments. They are speculations. GAMBLING.

Rule 1G: "Study the balance sheet and cash flow statement."

The hyperscalers spent over $380 billion on AI capex in 2025. Goldman says the measurable productivity payoff does not arrive until 2027 at the earliest.

Oracle just reported NEGATIVE $23.7 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2026 while borrowing at a pace that would make a leveraged buyout firm nervous. The cash flow statements are screaming but nobody is reading them.

Rule 1I: "Avoid the long shot."

This one cuts the deepest.

The entire market has become a long shot.

OpenAI is projected to post roughly $74 billion in operating losses in 2028 ALONE while priced for transformation tomorrow. Bitcoin treasury companies are multiplying off thin air.

The retail investor of 2026 is making one long-shot bet after another and calling it a portfolio.

Rule 3A: "When the fundamentals change, sell your mistakes."

Tesla's fundamentals have changed.

California registrations are down 24% year over year and inventory days went from 10 to 27. Musk himself admitted on the last earnings call that Hardware 3 cannot achieve unsupervised FSD, breaking a promise made to 4 million customers.

The fundamentals have screamed change. But the stock is still at $385.

The mistakes are not being sold. They are literally being doubled down on with leverage.

Rule 3I: "A 30-50% profit in 12 months is great. Mediocre in three years."

Today's retail crowd expects 30-50% in a WEEK. Then they wonder why they get wiped out the second the hype stops.

And my favorite - Rule 3J: "Develop your own style and stick to it."

That is the entire game right there.

I developed mine sitting across the hall from Peter Lynch in 1983, watching him work, reading his notes, getting my own research handed back to me covered in his pencil marks. Then in 1984, my first full year managing money, I ran the #1 mutual fund in America. The Fidelity Overseas Fund was top 2 for the next six years running.

I did not get there by chasing narratives. I got there by following the sheet of paper you are looking at right now.

42 years later, this single page contains more wisdom than every Fintwit thread, CNBC segment, and Wall Street price target combined.

Peter retired in 1990 with the greatest mutual fund record in history. Then he sat down and wrote books explaining exactly how he did it.

Only a few "investors" these days read them.

And almost nobody is reading the balance sheets, the cash flow statements, or studying actual businesses today either.

They are chasing AI, crypto, and whatever pumped yesterday.

The wisdom on this page is timeless and it's more important than ever.

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

There is just nothing more satisfying in life than watching a 5 delta option expire in the money simply due to GREATNESS

Whenever you hit a wall, remember this graph

[Sidecar Investor @sidecarcap]

“The best founders don’t signal like everyone else, they don’t think like everyone else, and they certainly don’t build like everyone else.”

[Golden Kappa @GKappaCapital]

@ZynxBTC @phongle and @saylor will figure this out. Agreed on this negatively impacting the volatility rating credit agencies look for