Global Linkages Lab

The Global Linkages Lab at Brown University is dedicated to deepening our understanding of globalization 2.0 and changing international economic order.

[Global Linkages Lab @GLL_Brown]

We are thrilled to announce the release of the first curated dataset (TiRADE) out of the Global Linkages Lab at Brown University!

Check it out here: https://t.co/Rh14ycepkH

[Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @skalemliozcan]

Happy to announce the release of our first curated dataset from @GLL_Brown @Brown_Economics @Watson_School @RhodesCenter We logged every US tariff rate: threats, announcements, signed into law since January 2025. 749 of them, timed to the minute, with the exact quote and source. Only 30% are executive orders. The rest is the noise markets trade on. Free, updated weekly:
https://t.co/Gw5XEzgPRu

[Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @skalemliozcan]

Happy to be part of Johns Hopkins’ 150th anniversary celebrations and giving the keynote speech at “Envisioning the Future of Global Supply Chains” event. @GLL_Brown @RhodesCenter @Watson_School @Brown_Economics
https://t.co/DhKgCgxa46

[Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @skalemliozcan]

Here are my keynote slides https://t.co/stFDmvmXr2 from the recent conference by @arebucci1
https://t.co/l0Bfy22xZp
Many insightful panels on how to develop tools and frameworks, backed by evidence, for global policymakers who are trying to navigate through geopolitical shocks. Understanding Macroeconomics of Geopolitics is first order for this goal. My keynote summarizes the research we have been doing at @GLL_Brown @RhodesCenter @Watson_School @Brown_Economics on these issues---How are supply chain trade, investment and capital ownership changing at the firm level, globally, and what are the inflationary consequences of these changes for the United States and other countries?

[Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @skalemliozcan]

@ChicagoFed's and @RichmondFed's Goolsbee and Barkin argue inflation is not limited to energy shocks and looking-through may not be appropriate when repeated supply shocks become a feature.
https://t.co/LBmQP29Te1
https://t.co/gEFEp93Me5
Our research @GLL_Brown https://t.co/KruH6Dlty5 quantifies how persistent U.S. inflation can be due to tariffs and other global/local supply shocks when such shocks become a frequent feature of the new international order. @RhodesCenter @Watson_School @Brown_Economics

[Global Linkages Lab @GLL_Brown]

Our Global Linkages Lab model, built on implemented tariffs, implies a 0.3% price-level effect since Jan 2025, matching CPI's overshoot of trend. Core goods data suggest that's a conservative estimate.
Read here: https://t.co/RtC9Any80b
@skalemliozcan @soylu_can @RhodesCenter

[Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan @skalemliozcan]

The Fed hiked for the first time since 2023. Energy gets the headlines, but tariff passthrough is still in the inflation data.

Since Jan 2025 the U.S. aggregate price level has risen 0.3% more than its pre-2025 trend (headline CPI, FRED series CPIAUCSL).

Our Global Linkages Lab model (first draft March 2025: https://t.co/iIRZ0jtC4Y), w/ @soylu_can and Muhammed Yildirim, using actual implemented tariffs and excluding the Hormuz shock, implies a cumulative tariff effect on the price level of 0.3% over the same 7 quarters (0.35 in the long run).

Our numbers are conservative. Core goods prices are 1.8% higher than in Dec 2024, which is 1.8 to 2.9% above their flat to falling pre-2025 trend. With a 19% weight in the CPI basket, that is a 0.34 to 0.55 percentage point contribution to the aggregate price level, against the model's 0.3.
@Brown_Economics @RhodesCenter @Watson_School
https://t.co/PZr7icMDk7

More from the lab: https://t.co/KruH6Dlty5