Rusty Shackleford

just ranting

[le.hl @0xleegenz]

Dude after buying SpaceX at $135 and selling it at $203 (he only bought 1 share)

[Rusty Shackleford @GOUDAFATHER]

Hanta virus...

[Rusty Shackleford @GOUDAFATHER]

this the type of rally that leads to a black monday.... probally the next one lmao.

[Rusty Shackleford @GOUDAFATHER]

@adg1006 @NickNemo17 yeah way to many em dashes

[Rusty Shackleford @GOUDAFATHER]

@BourdareauM @carl_sterns It was during bibis press conference he talked about them getting involved in the strait to provide protection to tankers

[Rusty Shackleford @GOUDAFATHER]

@JackPeters73083 @Barchart this is a yearly chart lmao go to one day chart

[Citrini @citrini]

I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case?

Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual war both sides have to agree to end it (or one has to surrender). They’re going to figure that out eventually.

The Fed’s cutting cycle is on its way to being completely priced out. 2 weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was 75bps lower than March 2026. Now it’s down to 25bps and IOR is comfortably above 2yr (meaning reserve managers are not buying the dip on the expectation the cutting cycle continues). If NFP is strong, it’ll wreck rates (at a time when financing has become increasingly important for the largest companies in the world) while if it’s weak I don’t think equities respond positively either.

And this all is coming at a time when AI is maybe not good enough to convince companies to replace workers with machines while business goes along as usual, but certainly is good enough to have companies attempt to use it for roles they had to cut because of economic pressure and potentially find out they don’t need to hire that role back.

It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and brush them off as priced in, that’s been a good strategy (most years have drawdowns of 10-15% routinely). But SPX is ~5% off all time highs…

[LakeShowYo @LakeShowYo]

😭😭😭😭😭

https://t.co/2vW2Z31Hk6

[𝚣𝚎𝚎𝚣 @wtfzeezco]

me after turning $100 to $102.69 in trading:

[Rusty Shackleford @GOUDAFATHER]

@EdgeStrategy67 The update from Trump yesterday will likely push PLTR lower today im guessing around 3%. Premarket, its trading is down in comparison to the indexes, which are up.

[J trader @jtrader]

A profitable strategy is useless if your nervous system can't tolerate the uncertainty required to execute it.

[Investing Addict @InvestingAddict]

Some random landman in a small town in Texas watching the price of Crude Oil surge

[Boltz (Cintri Analyst #008) @EsBoltoise]

monitoring the situation #ES

[Rusty Shackleford @GOUDAFATHER]

I am short over 200k in notional value on PLTR, any sign of war reaching end or peace deal is a positive catalyst for broader market but not PLTR or defensive stocks. It’s a great convex trade.

[Tuki @TukiFromKL]

Let me get this straight.

> OpenAI signs Pentagon deal
> Altman tells employees "you don't get to weigh in"
> Trump bans Anthropic from federal agencies
> Users start boycotting ChatGPT
> Claude hits #1 on the App Store
> OpenAI admits their model was "cringe"
> OpenAI now pursuing NATO contracts
> Leaked transcript: "we have principles but they're negotiable"

All of this happened in less than 2 weeks.

We are watching the biggest reputation collapse in tech history in real time.

[Rusty Shackleford @GOUDAFATHER]

market moves recently seem to be a shakeout, retail buying the dip, but institutions selling into the rebounds will lead to a blow off top 614-620, then a dump to 570 on the q's seems likely in the coming months.

Vol heightened with VIX at 24, but people also tend to forget that vol works both ways. At this range, daily moves of 1.50-2% will produce chop until dip buying fatigue sets in.

Retail, the most active in history, in a volatile market, stretched valuations, an uncertain geopolitical landscape, inflation ticking up, and a K-shaped economy seem to be the classic ingredients for a broad sell-off of risk equities.

#qqq #spy #markets #geopolicts