Why has the housing market been frozen since 2022?
Because the cost to buy a house with a mortgage (green) vaulted way above the a) cost to rent and b) the mortgage cost for existing owners.
The net result is that few people have a financial incentive to move. Cheaper to stay renting, cheaper to stay in current house/mortgage.
But - one interesting trend we are beginning to notice is the mortgage payment for existing owners (orange) is now growing faster than rent.
This is reversed from the post-pandemic period. Where sub-3% mortgages and still cheap taxes/insurance made for a very low cost to own for existing mortgage holders.
Now - taxes and insurance are up, and more of the mortgaged population is holding a 6%+ rate. So the costs for existing mortgage holders are rising.
This likely means we'll see more existing owners elect to sell in 2026, as it becomes less profitable for the average homeowner to rent out their house. And more profitable to cash out on your equity, sell, and rent for a bit until market corrects.
Translation: expect more for sale inventory, and more downward price pressure in the for sale market.
BREAKING: The Dallas Mavericks are trading Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick, sources tell @ShamsCharania. Three-team deal that includes Utah.
Mortgage demand is down 50% from the same week in 2019.
No post-election bounce.
Sellers better start cutting prices or else it's going to be a long winter.
NEW: A $16 million mansion is on the verge of falling off a cliff into the ocean in Dana Point, California.
Two other homes, priced at $12.8million and $13 million, are in danger of falling off the cliff as well.
The situation took a turn for the worse last week when heavy rains caused a landslide, resulting in a large part of the cliff breaking off onto the beach below.
City Manager Mike Killebrew says no structures are jeopardized at the moment and the residents have *not* been told to evacuate yet.
Residents have been told however to be on the lookout as a future storm could send the homes into the ocean.
Mortgage applications drop to start 2024. 📉
With homebuyer demand now down 47% from pre-pandemic levels.
And lingering at the lowest level since the mid-1990s.
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association