Gambero

[Paul Fairie @paulisci]

A Brief History of Nobody Wants to Work Anymore

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[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

My worst trade, ever...and other lessons:

My buying ETH at the highs in 2021 is a meme that goes round on Twitter a lot (or just fuels the trolls!) but that was by far and away not my worst trade...even though it was a terrible call!

The ETH bet was actually a call option that cost 5% of my ETH, which was up 13x at that point. I made the bet very publicly, along with how I structured the trade (which people want to forget...sigh). It was a low risk, high reward bet that didn't pay off and had HUGE leverage to the upside if it worked.. It was pretty prudent risk management. I lost 5%.

The truth is many bets don't pay off. That is the nature of investing. However, over the years I have learned that getting your investment time horizon to match your idea horizon is the super power. That was a lesson that Paul Tudor Jones explained to me back in 2003.

My time horizon is longer than most, and has gotten longer over time. I have gone from 6 months, to 2- to 5- years on most of my investments, as I am trying to capture SECULAR trends.

That has given me a 19-year published track record in Global Macro Investor (GMI) of 60% winners vs losers and many, many years of over 100% returns (and a few 200%+ years too), which is beyond ludicrous.

I do firmly believe secular trends compensate you for the risks and often those risks require you to stomach a 80% drawdown. See crypto for details or Amazon in 2001 or tech last year! I have had to stomach some big drawdowns too. I rode BTC down 87% in 2013 (back to my entry) and crypto in down 75%+ in 2022 (which bottomed several hundred percent above my initial entry).

Secular trends are often volatile in nature so its important to size them right and it is CRUCIAL to add when they are down big (as long as you have done the deep analysis that the trend remains in place on the longer term time horizon). That compounds your returns. Again, never get over your ski tips and never use leverage!! This is vital...leverage is mostly your enemy.

My worst trade was the entire year of 2009...boy, oh boy did I fuck that up. I m Ade every mistake possible as long time GMI subscriber know all too well. It took me a long time to recover my P&L and more importantly my confidence.

In 2009, my macro indicators suggested the business cycle had bottomed but my emotions overrode them. I believed (and maybe wanted?) that the entire system was going to go down in a 1929-style event. I stayed bearish the entire year, against all of my macro framework. I doubled down on the bet too. I completely fucked it up.

That cost me -50% to -60% (after a 100%+ rise in 2008 and a big gain in 2007). Dogmatism and my own false narrative absolutely killed me.

It took me a few years to get my confidence back. I think 2013 was the year I truly got it back (that was the year I bought BTC and it went up 5x).

I have learned NEVER to trade against the deep analysis I do, however tempting.

Sometimes I get it wrong, sometimes right, but 60% winners is good enough for me, and focussing on long-term secular trends has meant that I have nearly entirely given up the more crowded Business Cycle investing approach of the 3 month to 12 month time horizon. I have proven it gives suboptimal returns over time (using my 19 year recorded track record in GMI) virus secular trend investing. It makes you sound so smart, using the business cycle but it's mostly "midcurve" these days. Same with "plumbing", "value", and other ultra smart-sounding doom theories. They generally don't make a lot of returns in the current macro.

Unlike 2009, where I was betting against my work, 2022 was a bad year, but it was a drawdown year in a secular trend. I was super comfortable that my thesis was right, whilst testing that there constantly.

I used the horrific sentiment and price action to significantly add to my crypto (including NFT's) and used the tech collapse to buy Exponential Age technology names for the first time. This proved thus far to be the right course of action. NFT's are currently in their capitulation phase so I am paying close attention to accumulate ( I have started) but its not an easy game to know what to choose.

This secular investment approach has to be in big, liquid, understandable things. Some of you are smart enough to find the small gems but I am not. I find the risk of capital loss too high if I am wrong.

I tend to take bets with small baskets of larger companies or tokens/NFT's and my more speculative bets are much, much smaller. In a secular trend, you can make a lot of money even in the bigger stuff. You don't need to chase the 100x, however alluring it is!

I also have moved away from diversified portfolios to hugely concentrated ones. I find it easier to stay on top of everything and it stops me from style-drift or FOMO. I like to really, really FOCUS.

These are big bets and they demand all my attention.

The biggest secular trends I see are crypto and technology, along with debasement of currency which compounds the secular trend in these asset prices.

I find it sad that many people fight this narrative because they don't want the world to change, want to believe that value stocks and dividends work in this new world, or just don't understand it all.

What starts as confusion as to what is going on slowly morphs into fear and then anger, and many are caught in a trap of wanting the world to collapse to prove out their views. Most of those people who reflect this dont have capital on the line. They cant or they'd be broke after buying all the tin hats and sardine cans on top of all the puts...and they truly believe their own narrative too. They live it.

Meanwhile, the world keeps turning. Humans build new technology and things advance. Some people get rich, some lose out. Gold doesnt go up as much as people desire. Value stocks underperform. Passive investing beats most things. Buying mining stocks mainly makes you poorer, smart option tail-risk hedges lose endlessly (except very occasionally), and commodities go up and then down. It has always been so...but they help you sound smart and doom-y. Trust me, Ive been there. I lost money to prove it.

But I do always remember the KEY lesson - whenever you think your shit smells of rose, you are about to have you face rubbed in it. That keeps me paranoid about being wrong and listening to all opposing views and adjusting probabilities in real time. I know my next big egg-on-face moment is just around the corner...

Right now, I might have done really well by buying tech and crypto at the lows in 2022 but I fucked up trading bonds so far.

I ask myself every day what I am missing? It has been a poor use of capital versus my much more important theses of The Exponential Age, The Everything Code and the the Crypto Super Massive Black Hole (yes, I like a meme name because if I cant make it simple, I am midcurving it!).

Mid-curving it is the single best way I know to miss a trend. Don't midcurve it with overly "smart" and complex analysis paralysis, but also accept that you might be wrong too. This sounds simple but is bloody hard! If you can't explain it to your mate in the pub, you wont make money. The CDS trade in 2008 was a once in a lifetime thing. Don't worship it.

So, here are the tips...

Buy secular trends.
Focus on it very closely.
Expect big volatility.
Add to it when things are awful.
Assess your odds in real time by listening and filtering. Don't let your emotions drive you investments.
Don't use leverage unless you know exactly what you are doing...even then shy away from it.

And most of all, don't midcurve it...

Good luck. The Everything Code suggests the next 3 years might well be rather important for us all.

Let's see. Maybe I'll be wearing egg on my face or I'll be wearing diamonds.

Time will tell.

[Chris Boettcher @chrisboettcher9]

Most people who work desk jobs struggle with:

• Mobility and flexibility
• Posture from excess sitting
• Shoulder, back, and neck pain

If this is you, this 15-minute beginner-level mobility program will change your life:

[Barsee 🐶 @heyBarsee]

🚨 Google's new Quantum Computer completes the task in 6 seconds that would have taken one of the world's best computers 47 years.

Quantum computers can change what we can build and how we understand the world.

Here's everything you need to know:

[defizard @belizardd]

I managed to generate a staggering $25,000,000 by tracking influencers' wallets.

To replicate my success, you'll need the addresses of these wallets.

Discover 14 influencers' wallets 🧵👇

[rektdiomedes @rektdiomedes]

Thread: 10 Thoughts On Macro + Crypto

🧵

Are we headed for economic collapse?

Or will the 'Powell pause' usher in a renaissance in meme stocks and monkey jpegs?!?

1/x

[Chris Boettcher @chrisboettcher9]

I’ve treated over 1000 people with neck, low back, and shoulder pain.

Many of them were limited by one common problem, poor thoracic mobility.

Here are 6 simple exercises I often used and you can do to alleviate pain and improve your posture.:

[Chrisman @chrisman]

Marc Andreessen recently tweeted “In our new era of AI: Every child will have an A.I. tutor that is infinitely patient, infinitely knowledgeable, infinitely helpful.”

That era is here.

Try it yourself 👉 https://t.co/TZprbulgWx

1/n

[Gambero @Gambero33]

@chrismanfrank Will there be multilingual support?

[NYKnicksPodcast @NYKnicksPodcast]

Some Magic Johnson highlights for you

[K A L E O @CryptoKaleo]

This was only one year ago.

[Sid @sidmvenkat]

1/Everybody wants a piece of the $CRV cake 🍰

With 183M (~$157M) in CRV tokens emitted this year the Curve ecosystem continues to flourish. This long tail emissions curve tied with ve + gauges has produced an integrated & dependent ecosystem. Let's dive into the key players

[Historic Vids @historyinmemes]

The individuals listed here are the members of the "Red Warriors," a collective of French punk music enthusiasts who took it upon themselves to patrol the suburbs of Paris and confront fascist skinheads through violent means during the 1980s.

During the 1980s in Europe, there was a resurgence of neo-fascism. In Paris, these neo-fascist groups would instigate chaos, targeting minorities, the homeless, or anyone who provoked them in any way. Punk rock clubs were frequent targets of attacks, and attendees often fell victim to random acts of violence. Eventually, some individuals decided to organize and stand against these neo-fascist groups.

The Red Warriors emerged as one such group, originating in Paris in 1986. They were a leftist hardcore collective that actively sought out and confronted fascists during the period when the ideology was gaining traction in the region. Comprising 14 members, their initial objective was to counter what they perceived as the growing presence of fascism on the streets.

Joining the Red Warriors required meeting a notably high threshold. Prospective members had to have achieved at least one championship title in their respective fighting or martial arts discipline. The Red Warriors consisted of individuals skilled in various disciplines such as kickboxing, boxing, Kung Fu, Sanshou, and more.

Following their establishment, the group initially conducted targeted raids on locations known to be frequented by fascists. However, as time went on, they expanded their activities to include providing security for leftist concerts and political rallies. This trend was mirrored by the emergence of several other groups in and around Paris during that period. While some of these groups, like the Red Warriors, comprised punks and skins, others had a more urban or hip-hop focus, such as the Ducky Boys and Zulus. Algerians and entirely black groups were also among those that formed. Despite their diverse backgrounds, all of these groups collaborated in their resistance against neo-fascists.

In the early 1980s, neo-fascists instilled fear and terrorized the streets of Paris. However, by the end of the decade, it became increasingly unsafe for individuals to publicly display offensive armbands, fascist symbols, Confederate paraphernalia, or any other contraband associated with such ideologies. This shift in safety was due to the active response and resistance of the anti-fascist groups, who fought back against the rising neo-fascist threat.

[The Cultural Tutor @culturaltutor]

Why read a self-help book published in 2023 when you could read one that was a best seller for 1,500 years?

This is the Consolation of Philosophy, written by a man called Boethius while he was in prison, awaiting execution, in 523 AD.

Here are its 8 most powerful ideas:

[Tomas Pueyo @tomaspueyo]

What if there was a way to:
• Mitigate climate change
• Create more life
• Grow the economy
• And make money along the way?

Let's call it *Seaflooding*

[NEW YORK KNICKS @nyknicks]

Josh Hart mic'd up is pure gold 🎤

[GT School @gtschool]

92% of parents think their kids are thriving at school.

The reality?

More than 50% are falling behind.

Here’s what parents need to know:

[BOCKER BACKPAGES @BockerBackpages]

Today’s Bocker Backpage: Big Brun & Fat Ro! #NewYorkForever

[Out of Context Human Race @NoContextHumans]

https://t.co/8MVZ11hjt1

[WF @WhaleFUD]

Entering crypto twitter for the first time