Today's $SPX low was 7470.43.
Before the open, our game plan named 7470 as the level to take profits on shorts.
Here's the full plan and how the day played out, misses included:
Today's $SPX low was 7470.43.
Before the open, our game plan named 7470 as the level to take profits on shorts.
Here's the full plan and how the day played out, misses included:
Thanks for the question. Short answer: we don’t show the two side by side, and here’s why.
What “naive” GEX is:
Naive GEX assumes, from the start, that traders are short every call and long every put, which makes dealers the opposite on each. Because that is an assumption applied to every contract, it doesn’t establish dealer positioning or the direction of their trades. That’s why it’s called “naive.”
Why we start from the trader’s side:
Open interest tells you how many contracts exist at a strike. It doesn’t tell you who holds them or which way they traded. A naive model assumes the answer before looking.
Real markets don’t hold still for that assumption. Positioning shifts with flow, news and noise, and our measurements show the structure moving in ways a fixed sign can’t represent.
So we start from the trader’s perspective and don’t assume the sign. We net the short interest we actually know about against open interest. That gives us a read on how the structure is shifting and where it sits in the cycle between call and put speculation.
A note on the “sine wave”:
We use it as a simplified picture of that cycle: call speculators and put speculators trading control back and forth. In practice, news and noise push it around, so it’s a way to orient, not a forecast. The point is that the balance moves, and a model with a fixed sign can’t follow it. Here is the framework in practice: https://t.co/uMJOSlrvFI
On the side-by-side chart:
We don’t publish short interest strike by strike, so there isn’t a second signed series to put next to the naive one. What we publish is the netted read.
For the basics on how dealers hedge: https://t.co/ZQmNIb1Rgj
That's it!
We hope you've found this thread helpful.
If you did...
1. Follow us @GammaEdges for more educational content on trading $SPX.
2. Like/repost the quote below to share this piece with another trader:
Today's $SPX low was 7470.43.
Before the open, our game plan named 7470 as the level to take profits on shorts.
Here's the full plan and how the day played out, misses included:
$SPX
During yesterday morning’s pre-market prep, I spent considerable time discussing our MTM (Market Trend Model) and why we were maintaining a cautious stance on the bounce.
The MTM had not crossed back above our longer-term 1–3 week trading ribbon, which meant we had not received confirmation of a potential trend reversal or the beginning of a new uptrend.
Our team's approach is straightforward: short the bounce when price is coming from below the ribbon until the model provides an "ALL CLEAR" signal and moves above the ribbon turning our mechanical portfolio's on.
The first image captures the MTM heading into yesterday's session, while the second shows how the model evolved throughout the trading day. The message was clear early on: market participants remained in an extreme sell posture.
This is exactly why having a systematic framework matters. Rather than reacting to every bounce, we use our tools to identify the broader market posture, understand the prevailing trend, and wait for confirmation before shifting our bias.
Want to learn more about the MTM and the full suite of tools we use to navigate the markets? Check out the link below.
👉https://t.co/sMbYiRdsBb
Good morning, team! Happy Friday!
We will be changing our morning format and covering
0 DTE extensively
Join us this morning to interact with the community. I will be taking your questions live!
🎙️ Going LIVE at 9:00 AM EST for our pre-market prep and a look at what’s shaping up for today’s session.
Link 👉https://t.co/6GmdqR1gPS
Good morning, team! Happy Friday!
We will be changing our morning format and covering
0 DTE extensively
Join us this morning to interact with the community. I will be taking your questions live!
🎙️ Going LIVE at 9:00 AM EST for our pre-market prep and a look at what’s shaping up for today’s session.
Link 👉https://t.co/6GmdqR1gPS
That's it!
We hope you've found this thread helpful.
If you did...
1. Follow us @GammaEdges for more educational content on trading the market.
2. Like/repost the quote below to share this piece with another trader:
Nobody saw a 335-point sell off in $SPX coming today.
Our premarket gameplan showed a slight bullish structure, but sentiment and news took us the other way.
One of the keys to trading is having an if-then plan that tells you how to handle expectation breakers like today:
Nobody saw a 335-point sell off in $SPX coming today.
Our premarket gameplan showed a slight bullish structure, but sentiment and news took us the other way.
One of the keys to trading is having an if-then plan that tells you how to handle expectation breakers like today:
No plan knows the news ahead of time.
That's why we post SPX if-then levels every trading day before the open: to equip you with what to expect, and what to do if each level holds or breaks.
In the GammaEdge Discord:
https://t.co/56zoYdycAi