Tier1 Alpha

Leveraging Market Structure through Options, Volatility, Passive flows, and Systematic Rebalancing. Research Distributed through @Hedgeye

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@NoelSmith @jam_croissant @volatility911 🙌

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@jam_croissant @NoelSmith @volatility911 Congrats @NoelSmith @jam_croissant @volatility911! Great to see this come together.

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@JustMike_DE @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough Scheduling error on our side. Just published. Thanks for the heads up.

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@NoelSmith This is why $INTC is more dangerous than $GOOG despite holding a significantly smaller weight in both $SPX and $QQQ

[Michael Green @profplum99]

Well, well, well… maybe change is in the air…

[Michael Green @profplum99]

100% agree. Like many others, @t1alpha and @t1acapital are making rapid progress in moving local and only using cloud/frontier for hardest 5%. The local compute token supply is exploding.

From my perspective, it’s broadband 2.0, but possibly much worse, and will require pretty strong evidence otherwise.

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@VolSignals

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

Two words. Prompt injection.

Agentic trading is a disaster waiting to happen.

[Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough]

"The entire story of the market can be told in the record low correlation. No higher low divergence was made... perhaps we can go for negative implied correlation. In 2010, we experienced implied correlation above 100%. Maybe 2026 will be our mirror." -Mike Green @profplum99 @t1alpha

[David Weisburd 🚀 @DWeisburd]

A dollar of net inflow into Nvidia raises its market cap by roughly a hundred dollars, according to Michael Green. His conclusion: stock prices have almost nothing to do with fundamentals anymore.

@profplum99, former portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management and now Founder and CIO, Tier1 Asset Management, spent years running macro strategies at Peter Thiel's hedge fund before building the research that made him one of the most cited critics of passive investing on Wall Street. His argument is not that passive is bad for the average saver. It is that the entire market has quietly stopped functioning the way most investors think it does.

Here is how he explained the math on my podcast:
"The average impact of a dollar into the market was five dollars. That's five hundred times more than what the original theory predicted. My estimate is that for the largest, most inelastic stocks, those multipliers are now approaching one hundred. A dollar into Nvidia is raising Nvidia's market cap by about a hundred dollars."

Every dollar that lands in a 401k on payday gets allocated by formula, not judgment, into whatever index the target date fund happens to hold. Nobody is asking if the price is fair. They are buying because the paycheck arrived. As passive share grows, there are fewer active investors left to sell into that flow and correct the price, so the same dollar moves the stock further than it used to. Green's own trading has adapted to this: not asking what a company is worth, but tracking where the flow is forced to go next.

The market has not stopped pricing risk. It has started pricing something else entirely, and most investors are still reading the old map.

We’d like to thank @AlphaSenseInc for sponsoring this episode!

Full episode below 👇
https://t.co/huKyrFX3Qn

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@NoelSmith LOL.

[Michael Green @profplum99]

It's good to be back. Even better to share a collaboration between @t1alpha and @weareintropic in my first return post. Please checkout the analysis.

[Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough]

Gone are the days of picking stocks on valuation and ideas alone - you need to risk manage The Machine's flows, or The Machine risk manages you

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@SqueezeMetrics @spotgamma Lol. What.

[Dave Nadig @DaveNadig]

I literally just got off a call with an industry friend talking about the importance of novel data. Relatively small shops like CBB or @cerulli_assoc or @t1alpha are going to be much bigger winners on a relative basis than big data firms. Novel, and First. Thats what counts.

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@NoelSmith To hedge all the single-stock levered ETFs i'm sure.

[R. Patrick Kent (RPK) @RPKInvestor]

The @profplum99 piece "A Semi-Theory of Almost Everything" is a must-read look under the hood at the The Machine's engine.

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@Hedgeye Some important takeaways here.

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@KeithMcCullough I still can't believe how many professionals are just completely sleeping on market structure.

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

@options_insight “All gamma models are wrong, even if some can be occasionally useful.”

- Probably George Box, if he had lived long enough to read @SqueezeMetrics