100% consensus - it’s a new regime. Rates will never go back down, inflation will stay above 4%.
I give that 30% likelihood.
The other 70% is not back to where the US was, but “worse”. We’re on the European path, that followed the Japan path.
Neg rates by 2028 very possible.
@rickjeff78 I’ve mentioned this a couple of times on Twitter, but the really smart Energy bulls are starting to remind me of the really smart credit bears back in 2007, when the stock market ignored the negatives and rallied every week into the summer.
@ThierryBorgeat This feels like a combination of 2000 and 2007.
Except we don’t have the national balance sheet to bail ourselves out this time
And AI is going to create 10% unemployment in the next recession
@JaredKubin This is set up to be a combination of 2000 and 2007 all wrapped up in one. The speculation of 2000 coupled with the commodity destruction of 2007.
🚨 BREAKING: Rumors are swirling on the hill that Trump suffered a stroke this past week & the Administration is keeping it from the public while they determine the best way to hide it from the American people. Trump has not been seen in 8 days.
Bari Weiss and her wife are in the Epstein files. Weiss’s wife was VERY close to Epstein, so much so that she shared with Epstein her first encounter with. See her wife’s enthusiasm to meet Epstein here. In 2018. When everyone already knew he was a pedophile.
High Beta > Low Volatility since Liberation Day.
120% vs basically flat.
Risk appetite is alive and well.
At some point it tightens... but that point hasn't come yet.
@EsotericCD@UnimpressedTX Just wait until they have another really bad hurricane and the federal government finally decides not to be socialist and give them money