$SPX 0dtes - Full guide below 🧵 in the tread
A lot of you asked how to actually read the daily card - how to use it and lean on it intraday, not just look at it. So I made a little guide.
It goes through the card block by block, with the Sep 11 SPX card as the example, then grades it against how Friday really printed.
Keep in mind -what's on the card is maybe a tenth of what goes into it. Every level sits on a real engine running behind the scenes - hours go into each one. And this part stays with me...
Implied moves, GEX and walls are the surface everyone's marketing now. This runs on a lot more.
Read the map. Trade the edges.
https://t.co/C4ynURGhxl
$SPX Fri 9/11 0DTE: negative gamma, no pin, coiled under a stacked ceiling - 7684 flip into the 7700 wall. Personally leaning upside into CPI, but it's all on the number. Clear 7684/7700 and it calms; lose 7550 and the air pocket to 7500 opens. Fat tail's still down if the print runs hot.
Given NYT article, I think Jensen is gone at $NVDA, potentially by tomorrow morning with my guess the CFO as interim-CEO. But I think the stock bottoms on a RELATIVE basis compared to the semi index post earnings next week at the latest. The new interim CEO will probably want to set a low bar and the stock could trade at a single digit PE vs 11x currently on CY26.
There are 40K employees at Nvidia and Jensen was a generational CEO but the pipeline of products I believe will sustain the company for ~2 years. There is a deep bench of direct reports. The analogy I would give is Steve Jobs took his medical leave in Jan-2011 and sadly died in October. $AAPL stock however rose 26%/26% in 2011/12 vs S&P 0/+12% Nasdaq -2/+14% on blistering revenue growth of 66%/45% in FY11/12. It took till year 3 for Apple revenue growth to slow dramatically to <10% in FY13 and then the stock massively underperformed that year.
For the AI trade and Nvidia’s stock, the bigger question for me remains the same. Was June 22nd the top in the AI trade overall? I do not think so given Agentic AI just started this year. OpenClaw came out in January for the tech savvy and Muse from Meta for the rest of us in September with others introduced since then. Agentic requires 10-100x more tokens. But time will tell if that was THE TOP.
From a technical standpoint, it does not matter if that was THE TOP. There has been forced selling in AI stocks and this Nvidia news is likely to clean out the rest. Why does it not matter? Even if it is March of 2000 and Nasdaq declines 78% from peak to trough over 2 ½ years, there were still 7 rallies that averaged 25% along the way back then. I think another one started on 11/5 but time will tell.
Stay nimble and best of luck.
Half my timeline is upset they’ve never been honeytrapped.
Gentlemen, nobody sends a spy for a guy whose only classified info is his ex’s Netflix login and a Robinhood full of red semis.