GammaPlot

Options modeling and portfolio analysis

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@PlebeianCapLLC @UraniumSteve This is hypothetical that WTI reaches $150 at some point. If I was ever in such a scenario I’m flattening out as soon as it touches $150, not trying get greedy when you’re up a ton. But yes export ban likely if we touch $150, that’s a political nightmare.

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@RichMcCormick66 @UraniumSteve If you’re looking for the maximum return you need maximum leverage. USO tracks WTI (front contracts) in a 1:1 while UCO is 2:1. Plus add options and you’re leveraged to the tits. Not condoning such risky position, just giving my input on how to do it.

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@StoicInvestor42 @UraniumSteve BNO is 1:1 unlevered, plus it tracks Brent as opposed to WTI. There are scenarios when WTI trades a premium to Brent (Cushing empty) introducing the correlation issue. I don’t condone any of this but if you’re looking for the most asymmetric trade you need max leverage.

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@MichaelPBento When it firmly flips into backwardation it’s because market makers are paying anything for gamma. The fact we had a -200 pt day on SPX and still contango means things aren’t crisis levels, but also means this likely hasn’t bottomed/capitulated.

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@robin_j_brooks There’s no new information. No reason for prices to go lower than they’ve already been… logic must go both ways.

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@BullyEsq I’m a seller of this take

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@Invest_Brandon This is stupid for multiple reasons. $100k in stock does not allow you to sell puts, you have to use margin on the stock to free up capital for the puts. Also you’re just getting longer deltas, no value proposition or novel strategy, just excess gamma risk.

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@Politic_Vagrant @aeberman12 @ArthurLouvre Done daily in Cushing blending Canadian with DJ/Bakken and can mimic most of these grades on the chart. The real issue is the distillation curve, you might not get the gasoline/jet/diesel yield from the real stuff.

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@realkpr16 @BobEUnlimited Largest component is ‘owners equivalent rent’ which under performs actual rents significantly. Also methodologies like substitution and hedonic adjustments artificially suppress inflation data. Again, feel bad for your clients who pay for your lack of mental horsepower.

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@MichaelPBento You are presuming equities trade on fundamentals, when we both know they don’t.

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@KrisAbdelmessih I’d rather buy the 1000/700/400 put fly for around $46. If the thesis is the price drops back down, then the bid on calls which is what’s driving the vol up goes away and the fly starts to win on both deltas and Vega so long as you’re between 1000 and 400.

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@DrJStrategy Fancy way of saying “dollar debasement”

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@HansCashFlow @JamieMcullough Let’s us know when an AI company turns its first profit.

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@iancassel There’s a bubble in people claiming this isn’t a bubble.

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@SMtrades_ The sooner you accept their price is devoid of any rational analysis you’ll do much better.

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@AMeshkati 401k money just blindly lifts the bid all day, every day. Politicians have a vested interest in keeping assets high for election purposes and will spare nothing to keep their seats. This thing keeps going until it doesn’t. Buying call spreads is the safest way to play this game.

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@BluthCapital That same can be said about equities, price doesn’t reflect reality. But I guess equities are easier as there’s a multi-billion dollar bid each month from 401k’s that have no regard for fundamentals and you just need to get long upside on way or another and ride the wave.