The simplest risk-on / risk-off indicator I've found is also the easiest to explain and, in my experience, more consistent than many alternatives, including Follow-Through Days.
Prev week MACD 6/20 fast EMA > slow EMA = Risk On
Prev weekMACD 6/20 fast EMA < slow EMA = Risk Off
That's it.
No subjective interpretation.
No debating whether a follow-through day "counts."
No guessing.
Just follow the trend of the weekly MACD and let the market tell you when conditions have changed.
p.s. working on dtrp indicator stuff and this convo came up... so figured id share the thought again 😎 happy Juneteenth
@RoKhanna You think we’re all retarded and can’t see the pattern of u all pushing this narrative concurrently? Along the robotics and AI acceleration curve it will be necessary to redistribute some wealth, but you and your kind should not dictate the terms nor be anywhere near it!
Based on a study of over a hundred thousand moves, I have found that most momentum bursts last 3 to 5 days, and they give you 8 to 40% in 3 to 5 days. So I just sell on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th days. Some give you very little, some give you more gains. So, just time stop kind of thinking.
Somebody pinch me.
It’s just wild to see the MSM finally admitting that the US-funded biolabs in Ukraine were real this whole time.
I’ve dedicated the last 4+ years of my life to exposing this story, and it’s finally coming to fruition.
Cette vidéo est un véritable cauchemar éveillé pour l'écologiste décroissant.
Un robot qui traque la nuit les pathogènes et les nuisibles à la lumière ultraviolette, sans un gramme de produit chimique, ce n'est pas un gadget... De quoi faire s'effondrer toute la théologie écologiste. Ici, c'est bien l'entrepreneur et le marché qui offrent une solution réellement efficace aux défis environnementaux.
Pas de contrainte, pas de retour en arrière et pas de renoncement. L'entrepreneur résout le problème en créant de l'abondance là où l'on nous promettait la pénurie. Le rôle du progrès a toujours été celui-là : produire de l'abondance à partir de la rareté naturelle avec comme moyen ultime l'ingéniosité humaine.
Reste alors une question : si la technologie résout réellement les problèmes que l'écologisme prétend combattre, pourquoi l'écologisme la déteste-t-il à ce point ?
Tout simplement parce que ce qu'il veut, ce n'est pas une nature préservée, c'est une société administrée, dont il serait aux manettes. Comme toutes les autres idéologies constructivistes, socialistes et collectivistes, ce qui importe vraiment à l'écologiste ce n'est pas de résoudre les défis de son temps, c'est de régner sur les hommes de son temps.
Le héros sera toujours l'entrepreneur, jamais celui qui le déteste.
Science fiction authors in the order you want them to be right about AI:
Iain Banks
Becky Chambers
Martha Wells
Douglas Adams
Charles Stross (Singularity Sky)
Peter Watts
Charles Stross (Laundry)
Harlan Ellison
Il faut avoir l'honnêteté de reconnaître le coup de génie de la gauche, parce que c'en est un. Le plus grand hold-up rhétorique du siècle tient en un seul mot : raciste.
Voici le mécanisme.
Après 1945, après les droits civiques, l'Occident a fait du racisme le mal absolu. À juste titre : c'est une de ses plus grandes conquêtes morales. « Raciste » est devenu le mot le plus radioactif de la langue, l'excommunication moderne, la mort sociale instantanée.
Le coup de génie a été de détourner ce capital moral. Pas pour protéger des personnes : pour protéger une idéologie.
L'égalitarisme des résultats ne gagne jamais un débat sur les faits. Il produit l'inverse de ce qu'il promet, partout, à chaque fois. Alors plutôt que de gagner le débat, on a rendu le débat impayable. Tu questionnes les résultats de l'immigration sans assimilation ? Raciste. Tu défends le mérite ? Raciste. Les maths avancées ? Racistes. Les frontières ? Racistes. Le mot a cessé de décrire un comportement pour décrire une position sur l'échiquier.
Et regardez la beauté technique du dispositif. Pas besoin d'arguments : l'accusation suffit. Pas besoin de procès : la dénégation aggrave le cas (votre défensivité prouve votre culpabilité). Pas besoin de police : la peur fait le travail, chacun se surveille lui-même et surveille son voisin gratuitement. Il suffit d'exécuter publiquement quelques exemples par an pour tenir des millions de gens. Une idéologie irréfutable, protégée par un mot imprononçable. Les deux pare-feux du même système : la French Theory avait aboli la vérité, l'accusation a aboli le débat.
Est-ce qu'un comité s'est réuni pour concevoir ça ? Pas besoin. Les idées subissent une sélection darwinienne : celles qui survivent sont celles qui se défendent le mieux. Marcuse avait quand même déposé le brevet dès 1965, noir sur blanc : tolérance pour les mouvements de gauche, intolérance pour ceux de droite. Le reste a évolué tout seul. Il faut l'avouer : c'était génial.
Mais ce dispositif génial avait un coût, et le coût a un bilan. À Rotherham, le rapport officiel Jay a établi que des fonctionnaires britanniques ont laissé plus de 1 400 gamines se faire exploiter pendant seize ans, en partie par peur d'être traités de racistes s'ils nommaient les faits. Relisez cette phrase. Des enfants ont été sacrifiées à un mot. Voilà ce que veut dire idéologie mortifère : pas une métaphore, un bilan.
Et maintenant, regardez ce qui s'effondre sous nos yeux.
Une insulte ne fonctionne que si elle fait peur, et une monnaie ne fonctionne que si elle est rare. Ils ont imprimé le mot comme Weimar imprimait le mark. Quand tout est raciste, plus rien ne l'est. Résultat : des tweets qui commencent par « traitez-moi de raciste si vous voulez » récoltent des dizaines de milliers de likes et l'approbation de l'homme le plus riche du monde. Il y a dix ans, cette phrase était un suicide professionnel. Aujourd'hui, c'est un haussement d'épaules. L'hyperinflation a tué la monnaie.
Et voilà la vraie tragédie, que les faussaires devront porter : en imprimant le mot sans limite, ils l'ont brûlé pour tout le monde. Y compris pour nommer le vrai racisme quand il existe, car il existe. Les faux-monnayeurs ne détruisent pas que leur arme. Ils détruisent le mot dont une société honnête a besoin.
Privée de son mot magique, l'idéologie va maintenant devoir faire ce qu'elle n'a jamais su faire : gagner un débat sur les faits.
Elle ne le gagnera pas. Au travail.
@dangambardello Buddy, you are a fucking retard who cost a lot of people money, thankfully I dumped 80% around $1 cause I already know you moron “crypto influencers” are dumb as rocks
Systemizing profit taking for me, with some nuances highlighted;
1. Entry Day = Day 0, 3 stops at 33% level to final stop (usually LoD). 33% net size at each level.
2. If profit to risk exceeds 2x in day 0-2, i will shave 33% off. all 3 stops level will be maintained, have size adjusted to the net balance qty. I have highlighted several post on managing risk with 3 segregate stops to reduce your 1R loss even 0.6 to 0.8R. 1R loss is not 1R, more often than not it is 1.03 to 1.3R with slippage, spread, borrwing etc depending on liquidity of the securities on average period, and at time of explosive move u saw it is already making.
3. Day 3 = 33% size down (immediate partial profit taking or shaving risk down on trade that did not follow through but still hovering above avg entry as I have tight stops (since I only do execution when price action presents entry to LoD below 60%). All stops are consolidated to breakeven level on 1 full singular size.
4. Day 4 onwards is all mental stop on 10-MA. I do not mess with the trade if it doesn't close below 10-MA.
eg. If close below 10-MA on Day 8, stop remains at breakeven level on Day 9 and I will let market trade for a opening range of 5 minutes and adjust my breakeven stop to the low of the opening range (ORL) and let it the market take it out.
If stop not taken out by EOD of Day 9, during pre-market routine i will adjust back to breakeven, and reset new ORL for Day 10. I repeat this process until it get taken out. The rationale is to hold onto your winning trade as long as possible with minimal sacrifice or unrealize profit. Study my $XLU entry on 9th July. I'm still holding, and even added along the way up today (86 calendar days and running).
5. Some nuances to consider;
i) if I were to take a catalyst gap trade eg. 1/10 (Day 0) $UNFI +100% surprise beat in EPS and intraday hit 10 x ATR% extension to 50-MA. When $UNFI hit 2x profit-risk in full size within 25 mins of the trade, I take 33% size off. It continue to follow through and hit 10 x ATR% extension from 50-MA. It is extremely unlikely for me to even be aware of this because I usually shut off after 3 hours from open and let my stops take care of my open heat risk. I will let Day 1 open and size down further 33% of net size as partial profit taking. When a trade ran up exceeding 4x profit to risk before my Day 4 breakeven, i will definitely consolidate all risk to a singular stop at breakeven. I am taking the risk of losing the remaining unrealized profit but it definitely don't make sense to visit losing range (below entry) by maintaining stop at 33%/66% and LoD stop at this parabolic point.
ii) if i were to hold a swing trade beyond day 4 (all stops already consolidated at breakeven with partial profit taking already taken place), and trade continue to trend much faster than 50-MA to give me a 8-10x ATR% extension from 50-MA, this is a partial profit taking alert for me to sell on strength. eg. size down 33% of net size and readjust breakeven stop quantity accordingly. stop is always at breakeven with mental stop at 10-MA.
iii) if Day 0 entry executed, and hit my first 33% level stop or even slice through to 66% level stop (2 stops trigger) before Day 4, i will always adjust a horizontal price alert to previous day high (the stop day), and if it trigger, i will add size inverse pyramid method (eg. 10,000 shares in, 6,666 shares stopped out and nett 3,334 shares. I will add 50% of 3,334 size (1,667 size) bringing me back to 50% net size instead of 33% net size). By doing so, if trade turn south to LoD stop on the singular day, u will not be hit risk exceeding 1R even with attempt to re-scale back up.
iv) In holding a trade beyond Day 4 (with consolidated stop at breakeven at nett size), if there were to be a sideway price consolidation setup below 4x ATR% from 50-MA, i will inverse pyramid add 50% size of my nett size. @Qullamaggie treat it as a separate new setup but i prefer managing the same ticker as a single trade. By adding smaller size up this way, your avg price to the trade will not be severely disrupted and will bound to be below your 10-MA mental stop. You can continue to trail the trade like it was but with more potential profit trajectory to the trade.
v) gap down open occasion below 10-MA, the routine i take is the same as 4. on ORL.
The way I manage profit sizing and adjust stops in a sequential manner is aimed at reducing monthly drawdown % and achieving a smoother equity curve on a MoM basis.
As your equity grows (especially when it surpasses your absolute dollar risk tolerance relative to your monthly expenses), seeing unrealized profit drop from, say, +$500,000 to +$280,000 in a single session can be hard to handle, even if you're following textbook rules. I believe not many can emotionally withstand holding 8-10 full-sized trades with 80% portfolio utilization, especially when trading with a bankroll that significantly impacts their quality of life and that of their dependents.
I’ve been a capitalist because I’m a rational pragmatist, it’s been the best system. That will no longer be the case soon. Jobs will steadily disappear and there will be increasingly more competition for what is left, the Information Age has democratized access and therefore “edge erosion” will continue to creep into real estate, business, stocks.. everywhere. Unsustainable. We should be talking about what kind of system we want to architect, this one is reaching its end.
Another reason why socialism is creeping in.
On one hand we have people who can afford 300k to 1 million courtside seats to watch basketball and on the other hand we have people who can barely buy groceries or pay rent.
IM NOT SOCIALIST BTW - actually the completely opposite.
However, I’m just pointing out the behavioral psychology around why socialism is attractive.
Then imagine the socialists when @elonmusk reached the trillionaire status after the SpaceX IPO and OpenAI and Anthropic come public at $1T plus too. “These AI guys and rich are getting rich and stealing from you” would be the narrative.
I’ve been a capitalist because I’m a rational pragmatist, it’s been the best system. That will no longer be the case soon. Jobs will steadily disappear and there will be increasingly more competition for what is left, the Information Age has democratized access and therefore “edge erosion” will continue to creep into real estate, business, stocks.. everywhere. Unsustainable. We should be talking about what kind of system we want to architect, this one is reaching its end.
American citizens should be able to speak English.
This shouldn’t be controversial.
Why do the people who constantly call America a “melting pot” get mad when the “melting” part is mentioned?
"The more homogenous our citizens can be made in these particulars [principles, opinions, and manners], the greater will be our prospect of permanent union."
-George Washington
Elite Trading Framework (Structural Momentum & HVE Systems)
This master blueprint outlines my execution ready trading methodology. It is engineered to capture explosive moves in high velocity growth stocks by combining supreme institutional urgency, structural price compression, and flawless mathematical risk management relying strictly on clean daily and weekly price action for entry and invalidation.
Strategy 1: The Core Structural Swing System
This strategy focuses on trading elite relative strength and structural chart compression directly against key moving averages on the daily and weekly timeframes.
Phase 1: Screening & Selection
Elite Relative Strength (RS): You target market leaders actively outperforming the broader indexes ($SPY/$QQQ). You prioritize vehicles pushing into "blue sky" all-time high territory or tightly consolidating directly under lifetime resistance, proving they are immune to market selling pressure.
True Fundamental Engines: Setups must be backed by undeniable institutional drivers, such as recent "beat and raise" earnings reports or powerful secular trends (e.g., AI data center infrastructure and next-gen semiconductor components).
Phase 2: The Setup & Volatility Compression
You never buy extended, chasing stocks away from support. You patiently wait for the near term supply to dry up and the moving averages to catch up to the price.
High Tight Flags (HTFs): High velocity moves that flag sideways, refusing to retrace deeply, proving that institutions are aggressively defending the shares.
The "Squat" Pattern: The stock "squats down" tightly into its key dynamic moving averages using the 8w eek EMA on the weekly chart as your ultimate reference point for pullbacks to determine if it is ready to move immediately or needs more time, or the 21 EMA on the daily chart.
Inside Days & Volume Dry Up (VDU): You look for tight daily candles trading entirely within the prior day's range. As the stock sits in the squat, volume must completely disappear, proving that floating supply has been completely absorbed.
Phase 3: Absolute Daily Execution & Invalidation
The Trigger: Entry is executed on a clean breakout past the immediate daily consolidation pivot level (e.g., the high of the inside day, the high of the flag, or down-trend resistance).
The Stop Loss: Your risk is pegged strictly and mathematically to the structural low of the consolidation setup typically placed right under the low of the "squat" candle, the inside day low, or the key supporting 8 week EMA. If the stock triggers the breakout but immediately reverses through this low, the squat isn't ready. You cut the trade instantly with zero hesitation.
Strategy 2: The HVE (Highest Volume Ever) Breakout Strategy
This is your specialized, ultra high conviction strategy reserved exclusively for historic corporate milestones and absolute institutional urgency.
The Setup: You scan for a stock printing its Highest Volume Ever Traded, typically accompanied by a massive, violent gap up or breakout past all time highs or out of a multi month institutional base.
The Psychology: This represents a permanent structural regime shift. Massive mutual funds and institutions are trapped in a state of extreme urgency, scrambling to build positions all at once. This historic volume signature permanently changes the character of the stock.
Execution & The First Pullback: * Day of Print Entry: Entering directly on the breakout daily candle if it clears a clean key level with a defined structural daily low stop.
The First Pullback (The High Probability Play): If the initial HVE gap is too extended to manage risk safely on a daily chart, you place the ticker on a high priority watchlist. You wait to buy the very first orderly pullback or "squat" back to a key technical level or the 8-week EMA, knowing institutions will heavily step in to defend the baseline of the highest volume day in the company's history.
System Mathematics: Asymmetric Expectancy
The ultimate engine of both strategies is pure mathematical expectancy. Because you buy right at the exact inflection point of a tight daily/weekly flag or a structural squat, your risk from entry to your daily stop loss is remarkably small (frequently only 1% to 3%).
The Reward: When a high RS leader or an HVE catalyst stock successfully clears its daily pivot and unlocks its next major momentum expansion leg, it can easily surge 10% to 15% or more in a matter of days.
The Ratio: This creates a clean 1:5 risk to reward ratio (risking $1 to make $5).
The Expectancy: Under this mathematical profile, you do not need a high win rate to compound capital rapidly. Even with a modest 25% to 30% win rate, your outsized winners will heavily multiply your small, tightly controlled losses, guaranteeing consistent, geometric account growth over a large sample size of trades.
My name is @GeorgesStPierre.
For decades, I pushed my body & mind to the limit inside the octagon.
Now, I’m channeling that same curiosity & discipline into exploring what fascinates me, alongside incredible guests.
From sports & performance, to health, wellness, history, anthropology, philosophy, paleontology & even the unexplained.
If that speaks to you, join me on this quest.
Welcome to the GSP Podcast.
https://t.co/j2nXcujZKk
We have publish the signal on @tradingview with all your suggestions. I would like to express my utmost gratitude to @DumbleDax for creating this tool amidst his other commitments and projects.
Settings options allows you to setup your own comfortable ATR Multiple (eg. 5, 6, 7 as suggested by @finallynitin)
While there is no foolproof profit-taking mechanism that guarantees selling at the absolute market peak, employing this strategy can be a valuable tool for scaling out profits during extended periods to minimize severe profit loss.
Stock Price Extension from 50-SMA via ATR% Multiple Measurement - https://t.co/dIPIxmRDrH
Sure, X isn’t perfect, but you know you’re still gonna scroll the platform for info to regurgitate on your substack.
You’re unhappy that you aren’t paid enough to speak in this town square. Your whole post is weird. You’re being disingenuous and you know it. Just a grift for substack subs cause you think you’re important enough to make a living speaking in the town square. I never liked your posts, overly verbose and lacking original insight. So I unfollowed, but after this post, you deserve this.
Better law:
The closer you are to the actual work the more you’re myopically focused on how hard every incremental improvement is and can’t see the compounding and combinatorial nature of the feedback loops in play across every scientific discipline all at once