Garry_Evans

Head of Research Solutions @BCAResearch

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

It was great to be back in my old stomping ground Tokyo to present to Japanese investors on the impact of the war in Iran on the global economy.

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

@JP_Biz @JacobShap Or the list of Recents in Windows actually include files you just saved

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

Delighted to welcome Noah Weisberger to BCA as Chief Strategist for US Equities. Here is a taste of his initiation report this week. For more: https://t.co/OF1gTZLCKb

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

I suspect Trump preferred Warsh because he is good looking, while Rieder and Hassett are not.

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

Why independent research is crucial. @bcaresearch

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

@webbhk David was my hero. A genuinely good man

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

BCA published 16 macro reports this week, plus 20 short Daily Insights. For clients who find that a lot to digest, we publish a Top Takeaways of the most important themes from the week's output. Clients can access it here: https://t.co/4qEMCfNybt. To request a trial, click here: https://t.co/BB5IABzXIc

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

Is the AI boom peaking?

BCA View debate: AI capex plans imply ~$400bn annual depreciation—near current profits. Without explosive revenue growth, ROEs fall. Even no “AI recession” could still mean tech underperformance, weaker wealth effects, and a rotation away from US tech leadership in 2026.

Client can listen to the debate and view full summary: https://t.co/Ok9YdOCZeC

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

From Howard Marks’s December memo “Is it a bubble”:

“Thinking Machines, an AI startup helmed by former Open AI executive Mira Murati, just raised the largest seed round in history: $2 billion in funding at a $10 billion valuation. The company has not released a product and has refused to tell investors what they’re even trying to build. “

Doesn’t this remind you of the South Sea Bubble era fund-raising by “A company for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is”?

[BCA Research @bcaresearch]

The Fed projects it will cut rates by 25 BPs in 2026. What do you think it will do?

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

Puzzled to know how to read this week's FOMC meeting? We opened the Daily Meeting to all BCA clients to hear the debate among our strategists on the implications. Click here to listen to the recording and read the summary: https://t.co/5zOvLc08Ai

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

BCA Class of 2025. What an amazing group of young analysts. The future of BCA looks very bright. Thanks for all your hard work. And thanks to Juan Correa @ElClutch for mentoring the class.

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

Next week we will open our daily meeting BCA Live & Unfiltered (BLU) to all clients. You’ll get a taste of our daily debate and experience the broad expertise we have at BCA. It will be a busy week for market moving events with the FOMC on Thursday. On Tuesday, we’ll highlight our current highest conviction trades. Clients can catch BLU at 10-10:30 am ET Monday-Friday, with a recording and summary available shortly after. Go to https://t.co/1Z9NSlYvuN

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

BCA Research just published its annual conversation with Mr X and Ms X. No surprise that much of the conversation was about AI.

It is instructive to see what we said to Mr. X in late 1999. Sounds familiar?

"The runup in technology share prices has the same profile as other major manias in the 20th century. The history of these past manias is that prices rose by far more than anyone expected, and the break in prices always came as a big surprise....the odds are very high that technology share prices will break at some point in the next three to six months.... Past experience shows that bubbles do not tend to deflate in an orderly way."

[BCA Research @bcaresearch]

📊 BCA's Poll Of The Week

Which scenario do you see for the US economy in 2026?

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

***BCA Poll of the Week: A Correction, Not A Crash***

Most BCA clients see the recent AI-related equity stumble as a pause rather than a collapse. In our latest weekly poll, we asked if the AI stock market bubble has burst: 58% said the sell-off is just a correction, 29% expect AI stocks will crash, and 13% were unsure. Responses to the same poll on X and LinkedIn were similar.

You can see previous weekly polls and respond to the next poll (What best describes the US economy in 2026?) via BCA's homepage: https://t.co/RW0JUuZMc3

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

For BCA Research clients, here is a great new feature on our website. Search for reports on currently hot topics like AI, China, gold etc. Also, a quick link to our latest Special Reports. See https://t.co/J7AKDVQJPW for more

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

BCA Weekly Poll: Has the AI stock market bubble burst?

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

***BCA Weekly Poll: Still Bullish On Stocks**
In the latest weekly poll, we asked clients whether recent stock market softness is a new bear market, a correction, or a dip to buy.

Only 20% of respondents thought the market would correct significantly by year end. By contrast, 31% of respondents expect more than a 5% rise into year end, with around half of respondents expecting it to move in a range.

Details via BCA's homepage: https://t.co/RW0JUv0k1B

[Garry_Evans @Garry_Evans]

BCA's highest conviction trades now. Clients can explore all recommended trade ideas in our interactive table: https://t.co/DmMmWfuaNn