Gavin Swinburne

UK property investor & developer, armchair global macro economics hobbyist, news junky, recovered derivatives trader, Sinophile and motorbiker. Some say golfer

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@LupineLives I lived in Shijiazhuang - population the size of London - in 2010/11. Would be willing to bet you'd struggle to find anywhere without AC.

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@ECIU_UK Sophistry

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@Paul_SLG What you see in the US is how an elastic demand supply market works. The housing market in the UK is very far removed from any semblance of elasticity.

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@SamCKx NHS waiting lists fallen. -b/c ppl removed from list
Worker's rights improved. - tbc but less low paid work
Improved relations with EU - name 1 concession
Removed non-dom tax status.- removed high tax payers
550k children out of poverty - less, in 2028, and a model only

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@MelJStride Since the Brown chancellorship, 'spending was called 'investing'.

Jim O'Neil advocates genuine investing ie borrowing with a positive GDP multiplier. You can be skeptical about ability to deliver (infrastructure great gdp multiplier, but then look at HS2?), still logical tho

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@proptechpioneer Very close to 'fiscal dominance'. As more than 20% of gilt issuance is inflation linked, we only need sustained inflation as opposed to more issuance to be in this situation. Additional debt costs due to BoE QT losses (up to 75% or purchase price this year!) paid from budget

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@Mr_NickClarke Ironically SH tenants have a degree of social mobility around the country that is more difficult for the middle classes to match due to tight rental markets or SDLT costs for homeowners. Related to this, up to 40% of housing stock in central london is SH.

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@Mr_NickClarke @overtondoor Houses, only the brave develop flats for open market sale at this time without a solid backup exit plan

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@Mr_NickClarke @overtondoor Another nuance on an uplift deal I was shown. Land in NW London, with planning the deal 'stacks' at 16% profit/GDV. But land cost would be 20% of hard and soft build costs. In an inflationary environment, if I planning takes 2 years, quite possible that no juice left.

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@QuietWealth_UK Do you have a link for this story? Thanks

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@stevebell01 @higgyboson Granted, but London has over 800k of England's 400k social/affordable rented homes. I'd be curious to see the breakdown for the other (inevitably city) areas as London would have to be a big outlier in order to bring the average down to 7%.

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@stevebell01 @higgyboson

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@stevebell01 @higgyboson In London, 48% of households in social housing are headed baba foreign born household head.

My reply shows the ONS data for social housing as a percentage oh housing stock in London.

I dont believe your assertions consistent with this data

https://t.co/4YxJKbSFiw

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@proptechpioneer @PhilH23 @JoshFerme Im not convinced the stock on the market is right for HF or PE. BTR much more efficient, but sector is hostile even to institutions. Tax leakage is horrible, partnership structures require too much transparency, aged stock with capital reps, replacement cost > MV, and more

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@JamesWest12 @afneil

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@alexgroundwater @Mike47w I was in capital markets and then small scale commercial conversion dev. Other than bona fide attempts to improve NPPF and local plans, dev policy has become very hostile in the last 5 years. I wont be doing any more devs for the foreseeable future.

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@alexgroundwater @Mike47w Last week, the planning inspectorate overturned a refusal by Cheshire East Council for a dev by Wain Estates. The report also found that £500k that Wain had AGREED to make were not supportable under planning law and cancelled them. S106 needs reform.

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@alexgroundwater @Mike47w Agree, although rolling back the extra £76,000 of tax and policy costs per new build introduced only in the last 5 years(!) would also help.

https://t.co/GGO3hn9Nfx

[Gavin Swinburne @Gavin8t]

@alexgroundwater @Mike47w Just to add to the debate: the land value os not an issue for 68% of English councils where market rate development is unviabkle without subsidy. In some areas, zero land value would wouod still leave build costs greater than average market value psm
https://t.co/GLBiTqDRBW

[Peter Bill @peterproperty]

Taxes, red tape and inflation has added £76k to the cost of building the average house since 2020, say Home Builders Federation, demanding Building Safely Levy, due to be imposed in October, to be abandoned.