Gavin Andresen

doing less, enjoying more

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

Hey @grok : What are the odds that super intelligent ai helps prevent a catastrophic (more than 10% of humanity dies) event in the next 25 years?

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

I’m not conspiracy-minded; I don’t think there is a global conspiracy to influence people to have fewer children, and I think birth rates will revert to the mean long-term.

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

If I was conspiracy-minded…

… I’d look at global falling birth rates and blame the Illuminati or aliens or a rogue time-traveling AI for figuring out how to get us to go extinct with minimal fuss.

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

@reason Is there an @ogafroman song about this yet?

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

“Technical” analysis is homeopathic investing. There is no reason to think it will work, and no evidence it DOES work.

[Laura Shin @laurashin]

Bitcoin's Charts Signal a 'Major Low', and a Springboard Higher

"The good news is that we may have already seen that major low," says @StocktonKatie about Ether's chart, in a wide-ranging technical read on Bitcoin, ETH, Solana, XRP, and Hyperliquid with @Steven_Ehrlich on @bitsandbips. 📈

Timestamps:
📉 02:33 Bitcoin's monthly stochastic just flipped long-term oversold, the signal bulls have been waiting for
🔍 04:22 Fibonacci and the cloud model line up on one thing: a potential major low
⚡ 16:07 Ether's downtrend is cyclical, not the end of the story, and the monthly chart shows why
🔄 21:19 Katie's call: Ether may have already put in its major low
🪙 27:20 The one thing Solana's chart still needs to confirm it's done bottoming
📉 28:54 Ripple is testing support and lagging. Is it setting up or falling behind?
🤖 33:41 Why Hyperliquid is suddenly trading like an AI or semiconductor stock
📊 39:28 BVIV vs. the VIX: what crypto's eerily calm volatility is really signaling
🏦 41:48 Katie's contrarian take: crypto's institutionalization story is overhyped

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

@OneMorePeter "I'm Satoshi Nakamoto" (I still get a few of these every month....)

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

@Leonajardinho Tipping is a way to get rich people to pay more so poorer people can pay less. Or, cynically, a way for wealthier people to feel superior to the losers who poke the zero button.

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

I see three good reasons to throw money into a prediction market:

1. You have knowledge the rest of the market doesn’t have and can expect to make a profit.

2. You are hedging to minimize some risk.

3. Just for excitement/fun.

Most people are 3 (but think they’re 1)

[GiveDirectly💸 @GiveDirectly]

Damascene received cash and a smartphone from GiveDirectly, no strings attached.

We believe our recipients are best placed to tell their own stories. Damascene decided to film his own life and this is what he shared with us.

Follow for more stories.

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

@EliBenSasson Except for Bitcoin. Never underestimate the power of a strong brand.

[Sergio Demian Lerner (sergio.lerner.rsk) @SDLerner]

What is both hilarious and deeply ironic about BIP-110 is that once Bitcoin enables quantum-safe signatures, either the public keys or the signatures themselves will be so large that they can carry arbitrary spam data.

At that point, every current attempt to stop spam by restricting OP_RETURN or similar mechanisms will be futile.

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

But only about 20% of the population have multiple partners in any given year, and STI’s are all in that 20%. Still, the risks are small and manageable; I created a little data-driven calculator: https://t.co/MN9YwbS36N

Risks are even lower if everyone tests regularly (I haven’t modeled that).

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

About 111 million us citizens pay federal taxes. If the pentagon gets $200B , that’s $1,800 per taxpayer.

Do you feel $1,800 safer from the Iran war?

[Martin Kuchař @kucharmartin_]

🚨Urgent Security Warning: Sophisticated Phishing Attack on Crypto Community‼️

A high-level hacking campaign is currently targeting Bitcoin and crypto users. I have been personally affected via a compromised Telegram account.

The Attack Vector:
- Attackers initiate a Zoom or Teams call
- Uses Deep Fake AI video to look like your friend
- They claim audio issues and instruct you to install a specific plugin to fix the sound.
- This plugin provides full access to your system, leading to the theft of all possible bitcoin holdings & Telegram accounts, which are then used to propagate the attack further.

Immediate Action Required:
- Ignore all Telegram or social media invitations for Zoom/Teams calls.
- Verify all communications. Treat all Telegram messages as untrusted, even from known contacts.

Use Secure Alternatives:
- Prioritize @signalapp or Jitsi. For browser-based calls, use Google Meet, which offers better sandboxing.

Spread Awareness:
- Inform your colleagues and network immediately. Do not join any unverified Zoom/Teams calls.

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

I’m extremely skeptical of anybody who uses the phrase ‘epistemic humility’.

They’re saying “I’m really quite humble, I’m not a know-it-all”… but also “look at these big-ass fancy words I know!!!”

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

I learned a lot about fertility and birth control working on the RiskiPedia pregnancy page. Three things I didn't know that surprised me:

1. Unprotected sex between two young, fertile people at the peak of the women's cycle has about a 1 in 3 chance of resulting in pregnancy. Lower than I expected!

2. Unprotected sex outside about a two-week window has a very low chance of pregnancy. The "rhythm method" of birth control works if you and your partner have inhuman levels of self-discipline.

3. "Pulling out" as a birth control method is much more effective than your 7th grade health teacher told you.

Explore the data at: https://t.co/5m1JR3PQ0q

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

My new year's resolution was to spend more time writing... so I wrote this about my first impressions of claude code:
https://t.co/dezm1qCcqI

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

Everybody knows loud music is bad for your ears. I wanted to know HOW bad... so I spent a couple of hours with Claude Code creating this handy calculator:
https://t.co/v2P7WDIm7y

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

Imagine roles were reversed: the ice agent was in the car and the protester was afraid of being run over. Would it be justifiable self-defense?

[Gavin Andresen @gavinandresen]

@laurashin @EricBalchunas Your chances of dying, per jump, are about about 1 in 90,000
Your chances of being seriously injured, per jump, are about about 1 in 2,000

https://t.co/4vNQ5IO9ny