Gavin Synnott

Think-tanker & curious mind in #EU affairs & politics, #transatlantic relations, security & governance | Project Officer @MartensCentre 🇨🇦🇪🇺

[Gavin Synnott @GavinSynn]

As Russian forces regroup ahead of their offensive in eastern Ukraine, now is the time for decisive action, before its too late. My two cents for @MartensCentre on what #Ukraine urgently needs to stop the unprovoked #WarInUkraine.
https://t.co/5cUc7DzjPQ

[Gavin Synnott @GavinSynn]

Trump lambasted Canada over the years for not sending enough oil. Now he's angry b/c buying too much of that oil has led to a trade deficit?

Canada should use every tool available in this trade war, decouple interdependence and be prepared to leverage its energy. Read more here:

[Martens Centre @MartensCentre]

'Friend or Foe? An Economic War With the U.S. Should Inspire Greater Canadian Autonomy'

Our latest blog post, authored by @GavinSynn, discusses how Canada could protect its economic security in the current political climate.

Read it here today 👉 https://t.co/yocpFGcgeC

[Martens Centre @MartensCentre]

💡Join us tomorrow to gain expert insight on the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) & its role in tech cooperation, trade alignments, and navigating political challenges.

Don’t miss it! Register now:

👉https://t.co/K4okJzncS5

#FocusFuture

[IKDP @IKDP_cz]

Dle studie @MartensCentre se Češi oproti průměru více orientují na tradice a rodinu. I v rámci těchto tradic zdůraznil @PeterHefele potřebu udržet celou společnost pohromadě - aby nebyla opomíjena nižší střední vrstva.

O studii dnes diskutovali zástupci @kducsl a @TOP09cz.

[Hudson Institute @HudsonInstitute]

For over 600 days, Ukrainians has been fighting and dying for their freedom against Russian oppression. Now, Israel has suffered the worst mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust.

@EU_Commission President Ursula @vonderleyen underscores the threat democracies face.

[Seva @SevaUT]

1990s: no two states with McDonalds have ever fought a war

2020s: two rival McDonalds wage intra-corporate proxy war

[Sari Arho Havrén @SariArhoHavren]

Beijing desires to change the international order to mirror its own governance and by doing so cement its global power. It preaches the importance of the international law, but takes sides by not condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine nor Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel. China exploits these events to its own advantage and tries to play down the US. Meanwhile, its backing of all the rogue regimes, Russia, and Iran, enables them to circumvent sanctions and continue creating chaos.

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

🎯

[Saint Javelin @saintjavelin]

🇨🇦 It’s the biggest military assistance package Canada has ever provided to any foreign country! Well done!

Ukrainians will never forget your support.

[Derek J. Grossman @DerekJGrossman]

India just escalated tensions by suspending visa services in Canada. A responsible power would have taken no further action and sought diplomatic negotiations when/if possible. I know this plays well domestically in India, but the world is watching too.
https://t.co/MYFIhfuVKm

[Robert Fife @RobertFife]

Canadian authorities have intelligence that India was behind slaying of Sikh leader in B.C. - The Globe and Mail #cdnpoli https://t.co/xJcug1jBZx

[Luke Coffey @LukeDCoffey]

As Congress debates more aid for Ukraine, here is my latest ‘one-pager’ debunking the popular myths:

❌Blank checks for Ukraine: FALSE
❌Not enough oversight: FALSE
❌Ukraine distracts from China: FALSE
❌Europe doesn’t do enough: FALSE

Get the facts!👉🏻 https://t.co/TpwWFOXNmE

[Gavin Synnott @GavinSynn]

@RickGetsBuff @minkwest @mumsiemccool @FLEXjss @jen_keesmaat War & resulting food shortages, global pandemic recovery, resulting impact on international markets & supply chains, higher energy costs, corportations reaping the benefits. Take your pick. Canadian inflation is below average. Stop pretending that this is only happening in Canada

[Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en]

Some possible outcomes of yesterday's events:

1. In Wagner PMC, a split has reportedly started between those who felt used and those who remained loyal to Prigozhin after the failed rebellion.

2. Combat pilots reportedly quit Wagner PMC due to their disagreement with the way planes and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were destroyed yesterday.

3. A vertical of power has collapsed.
No one in Russia can feel safe anymore. Neither officials, nor oligarchs, nor FSB officers who used to think they were the rulers of life. Putin stopped holding a monopoly on violence in Russia yesterday. It was proven that factions with more weapons and determination decide everything.

4. Russia might be facing a bloody war, not a civil war, but a war of clans, armed groups and private armies: Chechens, Prigozhin's supporters, armed mercenaries, who will separate from Prigozhin or other PMCs and be hired by local clans for protection from invading outsiders.
All large business and oligarchs will probably create (if they haven't already) private armies, as Gazprom has already done to protect itself.
Conflicts and redistribution of property will be resolved by force. It will be the new 90s but far worse - Resembling the Mad Max style and genre of an anti-utopia action movie.

5. The Russian army, it seems, has de facto ceased to exist as a united structure. Soldiers and officers sitting in trenches in the massacre unleashed by Putin, probably finally realized yesterday the utter pointlessness of the war against Ukraine, against the background of the fact that a group of criminals in the rear can pass 600km in a day, sweeping away everything in their path and then be amnestied after killing pilots and civilians.

6. Ukraine is a few steps closer to fully restoring its territorial integrity, including Crimea.

7. What a pity that this circus did not end with the self-destruction of Putin's regime and Prigozhin faction.
But I believe it will happen again with even larger scale!

[Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en]

By my estimates, Putin's rating in Russia fell below 30% in the 24 hours of Prigozhin's "coup d'etat". The bloody murderer turned into a limping duck, his "macho" image shattered both in Russia and abroad

It's really like Russia had two presidents today - the real one, a determined, capable murderer, and the old one - cowering with fear deep down in his bunker, sending his bloody accomplice Lukashenko to negotiate.

Why did Lukashenko become the mediator in negotiations with criminal Prigozhin? I think the answer is simple. Wagner convoys were only a few hours away from Moscow. If they had captured the capital, they would take control over government buildings, including the Kremlin. That would lead to the collapse of Putin's regime, and that, in turn, would have caused the collapse of Lukashenko's regime. That's why one rushed to save the other.

What will happen next?
1. No one really knows the exact agreements that were reached in negotiations with Prigozhin. The fact is - a convoy of Wagner PMC stopped and walked away 200 km from Moscow, and that Prigozhin's forces left the headquarters of Southern Military Region in Rostov.
2. A lot will depend on whether Putin will honor his side of the deal, including the resignation of Shoigu and Gerasimov (assuming that was included in the agreement).

One thing is clear:
There will be a sequel of some sort.

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

Incoming reports that Prigozhin was lying for 2 months about the Wagner Group’s ammunition shortages.

Instead, he was stockpiling for this moment and also gathered large quantities of MANPADS and Javelins captured from the Ukrainian Army.

[Gavin Synnott @GavinSynn]

Massive. US bipartisan resolution introduced declaring any use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine by Russia or proxy or destruction of Zaporizhzhya power plant to be an attack on NATO itself, therefore triggering Art. 5. EU & NATO members need to be just as clear on this.

[Igor Sushko @igorsushko]

🚨US Senators @LindseyGrahamSC (R) and @SenBlumenthal (D) introduced a bipartisan resolution declaring Russia's use of nuclear weapons or destruction of the occupied Zaporizhia Nuclear Powerplant in Ukraine to be an attack on NATO requiring the invocation of NATO Article 5. ✊

[Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦 @bctallis]

There's been criticism of the detail (esp re #Poland, which has already delivered Leos) - but @JeremyCliffe's main point is right.
▶️I'd actually take it further (it's not about #Germany but about #Ukraine), which is why we need to talk about #Finland🧵

https://t.co/hUQSKIOyrL

[Gavin Synnott @GavinSynn]

Was a great privilege to have supported and participated at this conference on behalf of the @MartensCentre at @FIU Miami. The message was clear: get Ukraine the tools and weapons it needs to end Russia's brutal war - to ensure European security and global stability

[Martens Centre ON THE GO @WMCESProjects]

Inspiring conference coorganised w/ @JHStiftelsen, @fiu_sipa & @martenscentre at @FIU Miami on The Russian Invasion of Ukraine - a Threat to World Security. Special video link w/ @poroshenko & remarks from @TonoEPP. With a united West supporting Ukraine, Russia WILL be defeated

[Gavin Synnott @GavinSynn]

At almost one year, we are taking Ukraine’s relative success for granted. Russia’s next offensive will not be like the others, and it will try to bring the war to a crescendo. As written for @MartensCentre, the EU must decide now if it's all in on Ukraine https://t.co/k0iO0h6emT

[Martens Centre @MartensCentre]

🇺🇦The war in #Ukraine marks its one-year anniversary next week with a staggering loss of life.

🇪🇺🤝Ukraine’s resilience and #Western support offer hope, but the #EU must decide whether it’s all in.

Read this blog by @GavinSynn:

👉 https://t.co/BtFHdi32Ha

#StandWithUkraine